Mrs. Astor © Benoit Photo
MRS. ASTOR RETURNS TO DEL MAR IN FRIDAY’S CTT & TOC STAKES
She’s a 5-year-old mare who made a lot of fans at Del Mar last fall with her impressive victory in the G3 Red Carpet. Since then Mrs. Astor has won three more races and headlines a talented group of fillies and mares in the 28th running of the $100,000 CTT and TOC Stakes, a mile and three-eighths turf marathon Friday at Del Mar.
“She loves working on the turf at Del Mar,” says Chelsie Raabe, assistant to trainer Jonathan Thomas. “She’s been working lights out. We’ve been very happy with her.”
After beginning her career back east in Kentucky and New York, Mrs. Astor came out west last November and hasn’t left since. The daughter of Lookin at Lucky followed her Red Carpet win with a victory in the G3 Robert J. Frankel at Santa Anita at the end of 2024, then finished second to Lady Claypoole in the G3 Santa Ana in March. She rebounded with wins in the $100,000 Santa Barbara in May and the $100,000 Possibly Perfect in June.
“She’s very easy for us to train,” Raabe contends in explaining the mare’s unwavering consistency. “We’ve had her for a long time. We know how she likes to train. We know what to expect from her. She’s as consistent in the morning as she is in the afternoon.”
Lately it’s led to several trips to the winner’s circle and, as is common for winners like her this time of year, she provokes questions of a possible Breeders’ Cup bid in the fall.
“I’m not one to say,” Raabe states. “That’s out of my wheelhouse but that’s the goal of most of them; to hope that they’re ready and able to do something like that.”
There will be 10 other fillies and mares out to spoil Mrs. Astor and her connections’ fun on Friday, three from the Philip D’Amato barn.
Two of D’Amato’s entries have had to deal with Mrs. Astor in the past. Starry Heavens finished second to her by five lengths in the Santa Barbara but in her next outing, the Possibly Perfect, the Irish-bred missed by a neck in a four-horse blanket finish.
“Hopefully one of these days she’s going to turn the tables,” D’Amato says. “She’s training very well over here. She’s a filly that’s very tactical, a good trait to have on this turf course. (Antonio) Fresu knows her very well and I like how she’s coming into the race.”
Starry Heavens started her racing career overseas. Since she’s arrived at D’Amato’s stable she’s run three times and finished in the money every time. Her stablemate, Kentucky Gal, is another Irish-bred who came to D’Amato’s barn this year. She finished fourth in that blanket finish in the Possibly Perfect.
“I thought she took a step up,” D’Amato claims, “and ran a lights out race. I think Juan Hernandez got to know her in that race and knows her a little bit better going into it (the CTT and TOC) to time his move. I think she definitely merits consideration.”
Sun of Hill is D’Amato’s third entry. The Brazilian-bred will be ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, who is in town to ride Lush Lips in the Del Mar Oaks Saturday.
The defending champion in the CTT and TOC is back for this year’s race. After her victory last year, Sunset Glory went on to run in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf but finished 11 of 12 horses. This year she started with a victory in an optional claiming allowance race in June at Santa Anita then finished a well-beaten eighth in the Osunitas Stakes at Del Mar opening weekend.
The CTT and TOC is Race 6 on Friday’s eight-race card. Probable post is 5:30 p.m.
Here’s the field from the rail out with the jockeys and morning line odds: Hopeful (Kyle Frey, 8-1); Nadette (Mike Smith, 15-1); Mrs. Astor (Umberto Rispoli, 5/2); Sunset Glory (Kazushi Kimura, 5-1); Khinjani (Tyler Baze, 15-1); Kentucky Gal (4-1); Starry Heavens (6-1); Sun Of Hill (12-1); Sakura Blossom (Diego Herrera, 20-1); Alpha Belle (Hector I. Berrios, 15-1), and Venganza (Mirco Demuro, 20-1).
HERNANDEZ, BAFFERT OPEN UP LEADS IN JOCKEY, TRAINER STANDINGS
What were relatively tight races going into last week have suddenly turned into runaways leaving the also-rans with one consolation -- we’re only half way through the meet.
Jockey Juan Hernandez slapped together a six-win day on Saturday. That’s more in one day than 85 percent of the jockeys at Del Mar have compiled this entire summer. He won a total of 11 races last week to increase his total to 26, 10 more than Antonio Fresu who, on the same day Hernandez was winning six, notched an almost equally impressive seven seconds.
Hector I. Berrios is next in the rider’s race with 13 victories followed by Kazushi Kimura with 11 and Armando Ayuso with 10. The Top Ten rounds out with Tyler Baze (7); Abel Lezcano (6), and Umberto Rispoli, Ricky Gonzalez, Kyle Frey and Diego Herrera with five wins each.
Hernandez also continues to lead the jockeys in stakes wins with six after scoring three last week. He swept both stakes races on Saturday, capturing the G3 Best Pal with Desert Gate and then the G2 Yellow Ribbon with Heredia. Then on Sunday he won the G3 Sorrento with Himika.
Four jockeys have surpassed the $1 million mark in earnings. Hernandez with $2,072,196; Fresu with $1,297,956; Berrios with $1,037,220, and Kimura with $1,012,870.
Meanwhile trainer Bob Baffert wore a path from his box in the grandstand to the winner’s circle last week as he began sending out his talented 2-year-olds. Last summer’s leading conditioner had six victories last week and jumped out to a clear lead in this year’s trainers’ standings. He swept both of the 2-year-old graded stakes races, the G3 Best Pal and the G3 Sorrento, over the weekend.
Baffert leads the trainer’s standings with 14 wins followed by Peter Miller and Mark Glatt with nine. John Sadler has eight wins; Philip D’Amato and Michael McCarthy each have seven; Doug O’Neill and George Papaprodromou total six each, and Peter Eurton and Jeff Mullins round out the Top Ten with five wins apiece.
Owners J. Kirk and Judy Robison won another race last week to grab the lead in the owner’s standings with four victories.
Other numbers of note: Field sizes continue strong with an average of 8.55 after 143 races. Turf races are averaging 8.85.
There have been 83 horses taking advantage of the ‘Ship & Win’ program compared to 66 at this time last year. That’s a 26 percent increase. Eleven have made it to the winner’s circle.
There have been 29 2-year-old races at Del Mar this summer with an AFS of 7.83. Eighteen stakes races have been run so far with an AFS of 7.83.
The strength of any meet can be measured by the number of allowance races and this year Del Mar has run five more than at this point last year with an AFS of 8.43. Several of the allowance non-winner of three races could have passed as a stakes race, the quality was that good.
JOHN LIES: SETTING THE MORNING LINE ODDS DAILY AT DEL MAR
First, let’s clear up a misconception about the people who establish the morning line odds at racetracks around the world. The odds they come up with are not their opinion of the race but rather how they think the bettors are going to play the race.
So when Del Mar’s new oddsmaker, John Lies (pronounced “Lees”), makes his morning line, the favorite is not necessarily who he thinks is going to win but who he thinks the bettors think is going to win.
“I’m trying to predict what the odds will be,” Lies explains. “One of the challenges for me is to leave my own handicapping opinion out of it and that is much easier said than done. There might be a horse that I don’t like very much from a handicapping standpoint but I have to be willing to make them the favorite.”
John Lies has been setting morning line odds for 10 years but this is only his second year at Del Mar (He did it previously for one year in 2020). For years he’s been the linesmaker at Will Rogers Downs in Oklahoma.
“I’m the racing secretary, morning linemaker and announcer,” Lies points out. “It’s (Will Rogers Downs) out in the middle of the country in northeast Oklahoma in a small city outside of Tulsa. It’s very basic. You feel like you’re out in the country. Kind of a small town feel.”
While he enjoys his time at Will Rogers, which runs from the beginning of March to the middle of May, he admits it doesn’t have nearly the atmosphere of Del Mar.
“This (Del Mar) is an entirely different ballgame,” Lies admits. “It’s been very challenging because I am such a perfectionist and a control freak. It’s frustrating to look up at the board and see horses get bet down and it’s a surprise to me. Fortunately a lot of times for me, I can go back and look and see why they bet this horse.”
Lies has numerous tools he uses to set the morning line similar to the ones everyday handicappers use.
“Some kind of clocker information is vital,” Lies notes. “There’s some particular clockers that have prescription services that are very popular and those are extremely helpful because they do move the board. But it doesn’t have to be private information. For example workouts on XBTV is just as important.”
He also uses pedigree and connections in sculpting his morning lines.
“Maiden claiming races, where there’s not as much talent, I probably go more for connections,” Lies explains, “and horses that have shown speed if they’ve run before. The grass races have been extremely difficult. Deep fields going long on the turf. I look at it and see two, three, maybe four horses that wouldn’t surprise me if any one of them wins. That is very hard to pinpoint.”
Morning linemaking is also very time consuming and there are deadlines for all of his work.
“We have a particularly quick turnaround at this meet with our entry schedule,” Lies states. “Sunday we draw for Friday so I have until Wednesday, but all of the other three (race) days of the week they draw in the afternoon and the odds are due the next morning at scratch time at 10 or 10:30.
“So when the overnight’s come out, I have that afternoon and evening,” Lies continues. “Or as much waking time I have to spend on it. Then, come back the next morning and I’m watching workouts on first-time starters and watching race replays. Spending as much time as I have to refine it (the morning line) until it’s time to send it in.”
Lies is no stranger to Del Mar. He came to the seaside oval as a kid with his dad, Richard, who was a small-time trainer based at San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsal. Lies has been the back-up announcer at Del Mar for years, filling in for Trevor Denman at times. With the linesmaking he expected there to be a learning curve and so he’s giving himself a little grace if it’s not perfect at first.
“I does make sense to me,” Lies contends. “but it is frustrating when you look up and you see you have a horse out of whack.”
In the end, it is an interesting exercise. Lies can set the morning line to reflect what the bettors are going to do but then many bettors are influenced by his morning line.
“I have to believe it has some influence,” he says, “but at the same time the money is going to get it right no matter what you put down. I just think that bettors are so much smarter today than they were 30 years ago, even without computer assisted wagering. They’re going to get it right if the linemaker is way off.”
COOLING OFF: Baeza is no longer under consideration for the G1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 30. The runner-up to Sovereignty in the G2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga and third-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes is stabled here at Del Mar. But trainer John Shirreffs and the connections have chosen to keep the son of McKinzie with his own age group and will run him next in the G1 Pennsylvania Derby at Parx in September…Trainer Jonathan Thomas notched his first win of the summer meet when his gelding Geometry won Race 2 on Sunday. Thomas stormed on the Del Mar scene last fall winning three of the Fall Festival graded stakes races…Jockey Hector I. Berrios scored a hat trick on Sunday winning with Geometry in Race 2; Mohaven in Race 5, and Miss Roberts in Race 7…Imagination is back on the worktab. The major player on the Kentucky Derby trail last year went four furlongs in :49.40 at Del Mar Thursday morning for trainer Bob Baffert. It’s the son of Into Mischief’s first work since returning from a six-month layoff. The runner-up in the 2024 Santa Anita Derby hasn’t raced since finishing fourth in the G2 San Pasqual in January…Notable works this week: Monday – Cavalieri (4f, :48.60); Nothing Like You (5f, :59.80), and Madaket Road (6f, 1:11.40). Tuesday – Tamara (5f, :59.40). Thursday – Straight No Chaser (5f, 1:01.00).