 |
|
 |
|||||||||
|
|||||||||||
|
Handicapping for PolyTrack
Update 2: Handicapping on Polytrackby James Quinn In a welcome boost to frontrunners and pressers—that may support the cause of Lava Man across the mile and one-quarter of the August 19 Pacific Classic (G1)—who intend to shine going long on Del Mar’s Polytrack, the track surface has tightened noticeably over the past four racing days. Examine the average track variants for sprints and routes, respectively, across three intervals of the meeting:
If the latest trend continues or intensifies, frontrunners and pressers should do better at the route throughout the second half. Several may win at inflated prices, handicappers still keenly aware of the earlier results. Having said that, beyond the mile going long and at seven furlongs in the sprints, the classier closers still will be the contenders to fear. A second development that will wield a significant impact on the second half is the dilemma handicappers will experience with repeaters. On this common matter, the early results have been mixed. In several situations, a race over the Polytrack will be a plus factor that strengthens current form. In several other situations, a race over the Polytrack may have the opposite effect. As a rule, if horses have been fully extended to win or to finish close, they probably should be discounted next time. Where an overexertion is not evident, a race over the Polytrack should help the cause next time. On Saturday, August 11, Topper’s Smiling returned two weeks following an impressive win at six furlongs versus $50,000 three-year-olds. His speed & pace combination dominated the new lineup of $62,500 three-year-olds, and it’s greatly preferable in claiming races limited to three-year-olds to support the youngsters that having been moving up, not down. At 4-5, Topper’s Smiling had nothing left when the real running began. He finished dead last. In the very next race, the six-year-old gelding Careless Candidate was returning in two weeks from a nose loss in a $25,000 claiming race, now dropping a peg to $20,000 claiming. Again, the previous speed & pace figures looked impressive. Careless Candidate finished dead last. The next day, Sunday, August 12, the cheap MdnClm-$25 winner of July 22, Flip the Penny, returned against previous winners at the $20,000 three-year-old claiming level. Flip the Penny had won handily in the bottom-level maiden-claiming affair and with speed & pace figures that should dominate the $20,000 open claiming race. At 6-1, Flip the Penny won handily again, paying $14.00 as a sweet overlay. In each situation, handicappers would be forced to determine whether the recent efforts had extracted too much energy to win or to finish close again. A review of the speed & pace figures will not prove definitive, or even satisfactory. What may count more will be a careful review of the result charts and video replays. If the horses have looked overextended to win, they likely will disappoint if they return within six weeks. A telltale illustration may be the impressive victory on Monday, August 13, of the classy four-year-old Argentinian import Visa Parade. The colt was fully extended to beat the good five-year-old Railroad in an allout stretch run under classified allowance conditions at the mile. Visa Parade managed to summon reserves of speed and stamina in the final sixteenth, even while swerving in and out and tiring. While surviving at 7-5 odds, the Sadler colt looked exhausted in the end. Following a fast pace, Visa Parade completed the final quarter mile in an exhausting 28 seconds. If Visa Parade returns at Del Mar, handicappers might expect the colt to disappoint at low odds. The guessing game that involves repeaters will repeat itself throughout the second half. Where form analysis has been inconclusive, a perfectly reliable procedure depends upon the odds. With favorites and low-priced contenders, ala Topper’s Smiling, handicappers can pass. With overlays, ala Flip the Penny, they may choose to play. Finally, the first half has featured a Polytrack that has been equally tiring to closers as it has been to the front flight. Trevor Denman’s powers of anticipation may be unmatched, but more than occasionally on the Polytrack he has anticipated that latecomers fully of energy and moving fast can rally to win, only to see them flatten and finish out of the money. That has rarely happened to Trevor’s calls. Closers that rallied to win on Hollywood Park’s Cushion Track in the final furlong have instead flattened on Del Mar’s Polytrack. Late runners can win on the Polytrack, but the past performances should reveal they have achieved striking position at the pace calls, or within two-and-one-half lengths after four furlongs in sprints and after six furlongs in routes. Good luck. James Quinn, Los Angeles Read Part 1 | Read Part 2 | Read Part 3 | Read Part 4 |
Information
 |
|