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Handicapping for PolyTrack

Polytrack Updates For Dmr Handicappers (Part 2)
by James Quinn

Beyond the obviously slow and slower times that no doubt have caused intense headaches for figure analysts, handicappers attempting to solve the new Del Mar surface should accept the following developments during the first two weeks as salient:

• Although frontrunners and pressers have won their fair share of the sprints, closers have dominated at the routes
• Positive form should be regarded at a premium, so much so that horses returning from layoffs of 60 days and longer should not be expected to win, without exception at the routes

Of the first development, examine the track profiles below for the sprints and routes, respectively. Track profiles are intended to describe the running styles of winners at the first and second calls, amplified below by the average beaten lengths of the winners at the first call. First, a few definitions:

E means Early, and refers to horses on the lead or within a half length of the lead at the first call
P means Presser, and refers to horses within three-quarters to 2 ½ lengths of the leader at the first call
S means Sustained, and refers to horse more than 2 ½ lengths behind the leader at the first call (The numbers of races at the distances are the denominators)

At the routes, no frontrunner has won at 8.5-furlongs and only two have won at the mile.

Notwithstanding the actual times, the average beaten-lengths of the winners at the first calls in the various sprints has been conventional: at 5.5-furlongs, 1.8-lengths; at 6-furlongs, 1.6-lengths; at 6.5-furlongs, 1.7-lengths.

The routes have proved quite distinct. The average beaten-lengths of winners at the first calls have been 4.4-lengths at the mile and 4.8-lenghts at 8.5-furlongs.

Only one race has been carded so far at 7-furlongs. The winner was beaten 10 lengths at the first call and 4.2-lengths at the second call. Maybe the 7-furlong sprints will play differently than the shorter sprints.

With 10 exceptions, the winners have been up close at the second calls in all 50 sprints. Up Close means within 2 ½-lengths of the leaders. This has been true in 10 of the first 18 routes, indicating the closers in routes that have not attained striking position after six furlongs will be unlikely to win. In contrast to Hollywood Park’s Cushion Track, Del Mar’s Polytrack has been almost as tiring for off-pace horses as among the frontrunners and pressers. Deep closers cannot be counted upon to finish second in exactas and trifectas.

An emphasis on improving and peaking form appears to be paramount. Strict reliance on the factor would support the following toss outs on Form:

• Any horse at the route that has not started within the past 60 days
• Any horse without route experience and now stretching out from sprint to route
• Two-year-olds making their debut at six furlongs or longer and expected to show high early speed, unless their workout patterns have been regular, at longer distances, and occasionally swift, and their trainers win with 15% or greater of debuting juveniles
• Three-year-olds returning from layoffs dating to winter and early spring, sprints or routes

Key horses might be those having recent action, in particularly positive form, and having an edge on back class. If that kind will be moving up in class today and show competitive speed figures, accept them.

Finally, and importantly, despite the sluggish actual times, a review of last week’s track variants reveal a relatively high level of consistency that figure handicappers can trust.

Del Mar’s Polytrack may be playing extraordinarily slow, but it is not chaotic. Figure analysts can be confident the extreme variants nonetheless have adjusted the fractional and final times in a way that resembles normalcy. Good luck.

Read Part 1   |   Read Part 2   |   Read Part 3   |   Read Part 4

Read James Quinn's Full PolyTrack Handicapping Analysis