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Handicapping for PolyTrack

Key Horses & Adjustments for Handicappers on Del Mar’s Polytrack (Part 1)
A Summary

Handicappers who never imagined the late runners would be winning roughly as many races as the frontrunners and pressers should be prepared to anticipate precisely that when Del Mar opens on July 18 with its brand new Polytrack. It’s the most salient circumstance among several in evidence as a handful of major tracks have changed from conventional dirt tracks to safer engineered surfaces.

Maybe the Del Mar Polytrack will prove a distinct experience for handicappers, but here is a quick summary of what we know so far, along with a few recommendations as to how handicappers might best cope with the dramatic change.

• As never before, horses that run in the rear halves of the fields can be expected to win as many races as frontrunners and pressers.
  
  The data at Keeneland and Arlington Park has been persuasive on the matter, and to a degree so has the data on the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park. The handicapper’s remedy is the careful construction of and attention to track profiles, a simple technique that takes five to ten minutes a day using the Results Charts, and is intended to inform handicappers which running styles have been winning most frequently at the various distances. Do it.
  
  An explanation and illustration of constructing and using Track Profiles can be found in the longer accompanying article.
  
  
• Unpredictable form reversals have been part and parcel of the change to synthetic surfaces elsewhere, and a continuation of the pattern should be expected at Del Mar.
  
  The phenomenon has occurred most frequently, but not exclusively, in the cheap races, which includes low level claming races and all maiden-claiming races. Surprisingly, the upsets might also include a number of sprints for the two-year-olds, as many of the juveniles run swiftly out of the gate, perhaps too fast early on the Polytrack, tire noticeably, and will be passed by outsiders in the stretch.
  
  The bright side of the phenomenon is real too: a significant increase in the average payoffs in all the exotic pools. While bigger bettors will play conservatively to begin at Del Mar, because they have more to lose, smaller bettors can play more aggressively, because they will have much more to gain.
  
  
• Horses switching turf to Polytrack will probably win their fair share.
  
  Look for turf horses dropping in class, even of one step, as from $50,000 claiming to $40,000 claiming. Turf races at the same levels tend to be of higher quality than dirt races.
  
  
• Figure handicappers should prefer a new balance of speed & pace figures, where the pace figure is actually a couple of lengths below par, but the speed figure at par or better. High pace figures have not been nearly as decisive on synthetic tracks as on the dirt.
  
  This is a major adjustment handicappers that use pace figures should not hesitate to make. The good news for figure analysts is the daily track variants after 52 days of racing on Cushion Track at Hollywood Park indicate no extreme or incoherent variants, such that speed handicappers can be confident the figures will continue to make sense.
  
  
• The final fractions of all races on Polytrack will be more important for handicappers to calculate and use than ever.
  
  The calculation is simple and requires only the past performances. For interested handicappers, the procedure is described in detail in the longer article on Del Mar & Polytrack on the seaside track’s web site.
  
  
• Key horses will probably be the keys to success at the meeting.
  
  Once a day, sometimes twice, find a non-favorite “key” horse to win at 5-2 to 6-1, and link that horse to the contenders and longshots in the several surrounding pools. The favorite win percentages should go down on the Polytrack, so the payoffs must go up—way up! Good luck.
  
  
  -- James Quinn

  Read Part 1   |   Read Part 2   |   Read Part 3   |   Read Part 4

  
  
  Read James Quinn's Full PolyTrack Handicapping Analysis