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Handicapping for PolyTrack
The Polytrack & Handicappers At Del Mar, Year 1by James Quinn No one can argue that across the seven weeks of the Del Mar season the debut of Polytrack was anything less than consistent. The surface was amazing consistent, yet problematic. Although it served its primary purpose—the safety of the horses—exceedingly well, the surface promoted three elements of unfairness that complicated the gaming aspects of the season. First, speed horses were severely disadvantaged at the route. Second, off-pace horses won far more than their fair share of the sprints. Third, the outside paths dominated the inside paths on most days. Unlike the Cushion Track of Hollywood Park, and notwithstanding the off-pace advantages at most distances on most days, the deeper closers could not sustain their strong mid-race runs around the far turn. As did most horses on the Polytrack, they tired noticeably in the stretch, and flattened to finish third, fourth, or worse. That may change on the Cushion Track at Santa Anita during Oak Tree. Expect that it will. No doubt handicappers will anticipate the frontrunners and pressers that could not survive on Polytrack will prevail routinely at Fairplex and during Oak Tree. Inside speed that tired at the route during Del Mar may be hard to deny at Fairplex, but the situation should be more complicated on Cushion Track at Oak Tree. Higher quality speed should prevail, but as at Hollywood Park, the cheaper speed may fade. Look for horses that set or pressed the pace at Del Mar, tired, but still beat half the field. As always, when a new surface appears, it’s highly recommended that handicappers construct daily track profiles. The technique proved useful at Del Mar and should prove equally useful during Oak Tree. The procedure takes five minutes a day and records the position and beaten-lengths of the winners (runners-up too) at the first and second calls of sprints and routes, respectively, or at the particular distances. Because the actual times on Polytrack were so abnormally slow, handicappers that rely on the fractional times in Daily Racing Form to conduct a pace analysis will be hard pressed to relate the Del Mar times to conventional times at other tracks. To facilitate the comparisons, below is a partial list of average times at selected class levels for Del Mar 2007 at six furlongs and a flat mile. The pars, or averages, are based upon the pace-call fractional times and final times of Del Mar’s races from August 22 through September 3. During the period six-furlong sprints on average were slower than normal by 12 lengths and the mile times were slower than normal by 20 lengths. Mile times are chosen for routes because Del Mar did not card many routes at the longer distances. Final times are presented in fifths and fractional times in tenths. The pars in the chart are for older males (3&Up). Standard adjustments for fillies & mares and for three-year-olds of summer are presented below the chart. DEL MAR 2007 PAR TIMES AT 6F AND 1M FOR SELECTED CLASS LEVELS
I hope these average times will help handicappers compare the actual times of Del Mar’s races with the more familiar times at other tracks, notably Hollywood Park, Santa Anita Park, Bay Meadows, and Golden Gate Fields, and particularly at the route. Route times at Del Mar were exceptionally dull. Keep in mind the wide variations about par when comparing actual times. Horses at Del Mar that have run within two to three lengths of the average times in sprints are acceptable on speed. Horses that have run within three to five lengths in routes are acceptable on speed. In addition, because the daily track variants at Del Mar, while extreme, were persistently consistent, the speed & pace figures used variously, including the Beyer Speed Figures, should be considered reliable. Figure analysts likely will have an easier time comparing horses on speed and pace figures than will handicappers who rely solely upon observations of the actual times. In the aftermath of the 2007 season, it’s reasonable to expect Del Mar will prefer to remedy the conditions of the Polytrack that have contributed to the dismal times. While it’s agreeable among most handicappers that synthetic surfaces should eliminate the predominance of cheap speed in southern California, it’s quite another matter that stakes horses should run a mile in 139 2/5 or slower. Or that our better maiden prospects should run six furlongs in 112 2/5 and slower. After all, the hallmark of Thoroughbred class is brilliance, and the best of Thoroughbreds are the few that can carry their brilliance over longer distances in fast time. Unfortunately, that kind of brilliance will be largely hidden on the Del Mar Polytrack. It’s a problem that is correctable, and must be. Read Part 1 | Read Part 2 | Read Part 3 | Read Part 4 |
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Today's Card
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