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My two bit opinions of the Euros running on Friday. The Juvy races are a crapshoot with the lack of Lasix throwing the American runners form into question. I will be very surprised if the Euros don't win the F&M Turf.
Ceiling Kitty – Broke her maiden on the all weather at Kempton and went on to land the Queen Mary over 5 furlongs at the Royal Meeting at 20-1. Followed up with a 4th in a Group 2 and 7th in G1 Cheveley Park when stepped up to 6 furlongs. Nice story with Black raffling off partial ownership to Betfair employees but a placing on dirt in America during her 8th start of the year would be shocking to me.
Fame and Glory – 6 year old exudes back class with multiple G1 wins including a Derby and Gold Cup. However he’s only won his initial start this year and hasn’t threatened in three other starts, granted at longer distances in higher class company on ground he didn’t care for. The dirt is a huge question mark and O’Brien’s comments of him being clever and taking care of himself when the going gets tough leaves major cause for concern. Can’t consider him unless he’s completely ignored at the windows, which is unlikely based on connections.
Sense of Purpose – A quick glance at the pps would have most throwing this Galileo mare out of contention. The price on offer makes me delve deeper. She has met up with soft ground in all three starts this year but when on good ground last term, she won 3 of 5 stars with a second. Weld has taken plenty of US $ back to Ireland with him in the past and has worked over the all weather at Dundalk and says she handled it well. She’s won over the distance and would be the Euro I’d include in this race provided she hangs around that 15-1 morning line.
Juvy Fillies Turf
Sky Lantern – Despite his public disdain for the BC, Richard Hannon is making a habit of bringing horses over to compete. This 2 year old is top class coming in with a G1 win at the Curragh along with a second place finish to Certify, who will be champion 2 year old filly in England and winter book favourite for the 1000 Guineas. Ground should not be a concern as she’s performed on everything but there won’t be much of a price. In a big field and with the travel there are reasons to try and beat her, but her form suggests that will be a tough ask but at the price I’ll try elsewhere.
Flotilla – This French filly broke her maiden on good ground before being thrown into the deep end on Arc day in the Marcel Boussac. She ran 4th that day beaten 1 ½ lengths on soft ground at 25-1 but showed enough for Delzangles to put her on the plane. She’ll be the highest price of Lemaire’s three rides over the weekend and while I can’t make a great case for her, I don’t feel confident making a case against her. Watch the odds and include if higher than 10-1.
The Gold Cheongsam – Noseda never hesitates to come to America and sends this filly with 7 starts already this year. Obviously was well thought of being sent to the Albany in her second start while still a maiden. Ran a creditable 5th of 14 before reeling off 3 wins in lesser company with the third being a valuable sales race at Doncaster. Tried the big girls in the G1 Cheveley Park and was last of 11 on good ground. Went back to the valuable sales race route and ran 3rd of 19 on soft ground. She should appreciate the quick ground and Buick is top class in the saddle. Post position is a concern but she has been held up in most of her starts so William will likely snatch her up early to get a better trip. 20-1 is a good price for a three time winner.
Waterway Run – 3 for 4 last time including a G3 win when favoured at Newmarket in her BC prep. Beckett targeted this race for her next start and feels the daughter of Arch will relish the quick ground at Santa Anita. Gets Frankie on her back but post is more of a concern for her as she will want to be closer to the pace and faces the task of avoiding being wide with the short run into the first turn. I can’t back them all so I would take her on at the 10-1 morning line.
Filly & Mare Turf
The Fugue – Factor in my worship of Gosden but this is a top class 3 year old filly who comes over with every chance but also is the 7-2 morning line favourite. After throwing it down with Shareta in a great race at York, Gosden pointed her for the BC knowing firm ground awaited. She won the Nassau over the same 10 furlongs she faces Friday beating her stable mate Izzy Top, who came back to run 2nd to Ridasiyna in the Opera. The field is too deep to suggest single but she has to be on your tickets.
I’m A Dreamer – Noverre mare has proven her ability to ship with a win in the Beverly D just holding off Marketing Mix, a second last year at Woodbine and when beaten a length in 4th in the Flower Bowl in her last race. The aforementioned Izzy Top left her back in 3rd in two stakes this year so that form line places her below a couple other Euros in here but her proven ability to travel keeps her in exotics plans when wagering and she has kept top notch company all season. No offense to Hayley Turner but getting top English jockey Richard Hughes to ride only enhances her chances.
Ridasiyna – She won the Opera making her 4 for 5 lifetime with her only loss on good ground at Deauville. She ran down Izzy Top on soft ground in her BC prep. The Aga Khan doesn’t send many but Delzangles brings this one after winning her only try at the top level. I feel the ground suits The Fugue better and back class is also in the English filly’s corner so unless the odds separate between the two significantly I like The Fugue more.
Nahrain – Varian almost pulled the Opera / BC double last year with this Selkirk filly as she just missed to Perfect Shirl in this race last year. Her first two runs of ’12 were poor including a beating in the Nassau by The Fugue. She appeared to turn it around in a G3 in Ireland finishing third to Up before winning on favored yielding ground in the Flower Bowl at Belmont. She has also won her scout patch for shipping but her form this year doesn’t match last year’s campaign. I think she’s fairly priced at 6-1 but the form of the other fancied Euros is better and I’ll leave her off tickets unless her price goes on the drift in a big way.
Up - She’s been a busy filly running 10 times this year. She’s made one visit to the States finishing 6th in the Beverly D. She did beat Nahrain two back at the Curragh in a G2 and ran a good 2nd in the French 1000 Guineas earlier this year. That said she has finished behind I’m A Dreamer twice and seems to be just a step below the other Euros in this race. O’Brien did say that she should like the firm ground in America so that could move her up and in other years she could be right there, but at the end of a long season I could only include if she is completely ignored at the windows.
"I'm Winston Wolf. I solve problems."
Terrific write-up on the Euros, Bob B. Thank you for taking the time to share your opinions on these horses.
Re Fame and Glory: I'm taking O'Brien's remarks that Fame and Glory is "clever and taking care of himself when the going gets tough" to mean the horse is not trying that hard anymore. But he has such a great record and the Marathon field is so ordinary that he may just loaf along to first place -- even on the dirt. Certainly I would take the 9/2 William Hill is quoting today.
"My two bit opinions of the Euros running on Friday...."
We don't get that much for 25¢ anymore - gotta be worth a silver dollar!
If Friday works out well, charge triple for Saturday....
Bob - both times #8 Nahrain has come to the USA she has gotten lasix and ran better for it this year. She gets it again Friday. You can bet she's never run on turf this solid and fast. Even Bel and CD were soft when she ran on them. I think she's part of the equation. Up / Nahrain 7-8 small exacta box for fun.
Thank God for the Federal Reserve. You can't have big government or big wars without them.
6 posts • Page 1 of 1
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