Day 2 BC Analysis

[Bob B]

I posted this response on the Chicago board I follow so I better post it on here for my west coast friends...

It's obvious you put a lot of time into this analysis but your take on Moonlight Cloud in the Mile needs some adjustments.

First off she's a filly. Secondly there is nothing free wheeling and being alone on the lead in her performances this year. In the Moulin she was near the pace as it was a tactical race with only four runners. Godolphin's Farhh set the pace trying to test the stamina of the filly but she prevailed.

In her prior race in the Le Marois, she was in mid-pack and met significant trouble in running but managed a fourth behind 3 Group 1 winners including Excelebration. She was also just off the pace in the Maurice de Gheest before taking the lead 2 out and easing down for a win over subsequent G1 Arc day winner Wizz Kid.

Finally in the race that most Americans likely saw, Moonlight Cloud was mid-pack and made a storming run home in the Golden Jubilee to just go down by a diminishing head to super filly Black Caviar at Royal Ascot. The company she has kept in her 4 Group 1 starts this year demonstrates her to be very live next Saturday and it won't be as a free wheeling front runner with Obviously and Little Mike. She will likely be in the middle towards the back of the field and will likely be rattling home late. Her Ascot run was on good ground so the surface at Santa Anita should suit and the question of her stamina is less likely to harm her on the fast, flat surface in Arcadia.

As for Excelebration I would agree with you that the two week turnaround is a major concern. However he was far from all out in the QE II with his biggest question being extricating himself from being blocked in on the rail. When he found an opening he accelerated to the lead without being asked and won easily. As for the pace scenario in the Mile, it should also suit him. He should be laying closer than Moonlight Cloud but still in mid pack. At the top of the straight he should be laying 3rd or 4th with Wise Dan and if the two week turnaround and travel don't do him in you could see quite a battle between two very good milers. If Moonlight Cloud avoids trouble coming from the back, the boys better watch their back.

[Hollywoodmike]

Always enjoy your European analysis Bob.

[Stefan]

Thanks Bob.

It sounds like you might like Moonlight over Excelebration?

I was watching her races and she does close beautifully, but I didn't think she would have caught Excelebration in their race together even without checking.

[Bob B]

Thanks Bob.

It sounds like you might like Moonlight over Excelebration?

I was watching her races and she does close beautifully, but I didn't think she would have caught Excelebration in their race together even without checking.

I'm pretty sure I'm going to like her price more. I think Excelebration will vie with Wise Dan for favoritism. I'm hoping Little Mike and Obviously take some money and Moonlight Cloud is offered at a juicy number. I think Excelebration is a better horse but I like Moonlight Cloud's road to the BC better and I think she'll appreciate the ground and the pace of the race. O'Brien is 6 for 74 in the BC while Head has only brought 2 horses over and is 3 for 5, all three wins by Goldikova. It's a small sample but it is telling that he only comes when he feels he's live. Coolmore is more of a shotgun approach hoping one or two a year make the enclosure.

[Crazykid]

the euros you have to watch most years are the one's who dont have much fanfare. seems like almost every year
a 50to1 shot or two either wins or hits the board causing huge pay offs

[Tvghrtvfan]

My analysis on the euros arent great but i tried though and thats something i need to work when writing analysis for a race

[Scorequick]

Dundonnell in the juve turf



$7500 is a bargain, no??

FIRST DEFENCE
2004, b, 16.0 1/2 hands
Unbridled's Song-Honest Lady, by Seattle Slew

2012 FEE: $7,500 LIVE FOAL

[Bob B]

the euros you have to watch most years are the one's who dont have much fanfare. seems like almost every year
a 50to1 shot or two either wins or hits the board causing huge pay offs

I agree you shouldn't take a short price on a Euro. There is a lot for them to overcome when shipping to the States in November at the end of their racing season. Some are over the top at this point of the year and others start getting their winter coats and then will have to run in the warm weather at Santa Anita. Many have never faced shipping that far in their life either. Santa Anita is across the continent from New York so this trip is even longer although the Europeans have fared pretty well in Arcadia.

Dundonnell is a very smart two year old who probably has a better resume than most juveniles ever sent over for the BC, but it remains to be seen what price we'll get. That's why I'm focusing on Snow King for Gosden. He has a bare bones resume with a maiden win but JG still thought enough of him to spend the money to bring him over. There was no "win and you're in" travel bonus for his maiden run. Unfortunately those connections draw attention and he might not be much of a price either.

[Tvghrtvfan]

I heard that emcee will go in dirt mile instead of sprint. I think he'll give shackleford a run for his money since I think he maybe lone speed. Also, I like fed biz in that one since he had an advantage for liking the track and that one mile is his limit

[Vince P]

the euros you have to watch most years are the one's who dont have much fanfare. seems like almost every year
a 50to1 shot or two either wins or hits the board causing huge pay offs

I agree you shouldn't take a short price on a Euro. There is a lot for them to overcome when shipping to the States in November at the end of their racing season. Some are over the top at this point of the year and others start getting their winter coats and then will have to run in the warm weather at Santa Anita. Many have never faced shipping that far in their life either. Santa Anita is across the continent from New York so this trip is even longer although the Europeans have fared pretty well in Arcadia.

Dundonnell is a very smart two year old who probably has a better resume than most juveniles ever sent over for the BC, but it remains to be seen what price we'll get. That's why I'm focusing on Snow King for Gosden. He has a bare bones resume with a maiden win but JG still thought enough of him to spend the money to bring him over. There was no "win and you're in" travel bonus for his maiden run. Unfortunately those connections draw attention and he might not be much of a price either.

You guys nailed it.

I don't see betting on Euros any different from betting on US horses.

Value is the bottom line.

Vince P