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Here are my early BC Analysis of the Friday action:
Kauai Katie: Choosing this race as 2nd preference, but let’s analyze her chances in here. She’s unbeaten including 2 graded stakes wins. She seems to be the real deal each time she runs. I think she’d have a better shot of winning this race than her 1st preference. Look out for her if she runs. I will pick her on top in this race but won’t pick her on top in the Juvenile Fillies.
Beholder: She almost beat the big favorite in the Juvenile Fillies 2 races back and won impressively in a fast time and a great beyer too when she won for her prep race. This is her first preference and definitely a contender in here and likely favorite if Kauai Katie doesn’t go in it. The pick for me if Kauai Katie doesn’t go in it.
Sweet Shirley Mae: She was 2nd to So Many Ways in a G1 at Saratoga last time out. She ran a game effort in defeat and is tough in here too and could be at a good price in here.
Merit Man: Has ran well in his 1st 2 starts and won a feature race in the most recent start. Has some speed in here. Could be dangerous in here if Beholder or Kauai Katie don’t run their races at their a-game.
Super Ninety Nine: Broke the maiden the debut which was its most recent start. Never doubt Baffert in these kind of races. Has had monster works in the mornings too and beat the favorite in the Juvenile Fillies in the workout.
Top 3 Picks: (if Kauai Katie goes)
(If Kauai Katie doesn’t go)
Super Ninety Nine
Eldaafer: Won this race 2 years ago and was 6th in it last year. This year, only has 1 win out of 7 starts. Was 3rd in the most recent start in the Hawthorne Gold Cup. Maybe has a chance in here but the form hasn’t been the same since the year he won this race.
Atigun: Was 4th in both G1’s Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup in his most recent starts. Was 3rd to Union Rags in the Belmont Stakes and had a troubled trip that day. He’s tough in here and I think the need for extra distance should suit this contender. The pick for me in this race.
Commander: Won the G3 Preimer at Hastings last time out. He has speed in here and will see how the speed will be like in here. He’s won his last 6 including his last 2 being at Hastings and has a 2nd over the SA surface. It’s a long race and anything can happen in here.
Jaycito: Never ran his a-game when he ran in the BC 2 years ago after a terrible break in the Juvenile. This former G1 so far this year has only won 1 out of his 5 starts so far this year. His most recent start was a couple weeks ago in the Big Bear finishing a closing 3rd. Will be a come from behinder and should be able to be a contender in here.
Not Abroad: Won the Maryland Million Classic last time out and has 2 out of his 6 starts so far this year. Since this race IMO is a wide open race and I think anything can happen in here and wouldn’t surprise me if he wins.
Worth Repeating: Won the Ralph M. Hinds at Fairplex in the most recent start and has a liking to long distance especially his win last year in the G3 Tokyo City Cup. He will be tough in here and dangerous.
Fame and Glory: He had great form last year including a G1 win in the Ascot Gold Cup. So far this year has only had 1 win out of 4 starts which was a win in the Vintage Crop Stakes. He has a shot in here but his form is not the same from last year’s form.
Top 3 Picks:
Juvenile Fillies Turf:
Spring Venture: Has been great in her last 2 starts out at Woodbine on both the Polytrack and Turf. She was a winner of both G2 Natalma and G3 Mazerine in her most recent starts. She’s dangerous in here and a contender too.
Moonwalk: She was the upset winner of the G3 Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland last time out. I don’t think it wasn’t a fluke since it was a tough field and anything can happen in those kind of races like this race she’s in and certainly will have a good late kick at the end.
Watsdachances: She won the G3 Miss Grillo Stakes in the most recent start and then 2 races back won the P.G. Johnson stakes as well. She’s dangerous in here and a contender too.
Sky Lantern: She won the G1 Moyglare Stud in the most recent race and will be one of the horses to look at in here and could even be the favorite too. She’s dangerous in here and a contender too.
Kitten’s Point: She was beaten by Moonwalk in a multiple horse photo finish in the G3 Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland finishing 2nd. I think she has the pedigree in here and certainly is going to be a contender.
Sustained: She was 2nd to Watsdachances in the G3 Miss Grillo Stakes in the most recent start. She ran well in her maiden win 2 races back. I think with a lot of speed in here, I think it may set it up perfect for her.
Flash Ways: She won the local prep for this race in her most recent start in the Surfer Girl Stakes. I like her chances in here and will be my top pick in here since she holds the advantage of horse for course in here and you might get a good price on her in here.
Top 3 Picks:
Executiveprivilege: She’s the real deal indeed here on the West Coast. She won the local prep races for this race like the G3 Sorrento, G1’s Del Mar Debutante and Chandelier Stakes. She really is tough in here and I think will be one of the short priced favorites in here. She will be the pick for me in here.
Dreaming of Julia: This one has a great future ahead of her like the favorite does. She ran well in her debut and in her stakes debut in the Meadow Star. Though she’d win her last the G1 Frizette easily but really had to earn that one and might’ve took a lot of game out of her probably. Still look at her just in case if the favorite doesn’t bring her a-game.
Spring In The Air: She was the winner of the G1 Darley Alcibiades in the most recent start. It was a tough field that was full and she was the favorite that day in a wide open field. She could be an upset potential in here if neither of the top 2 horses we mentioned aren’t interested in running.
Kauai Katie: A bit surprised that the connections chose this race as her 1st preference where 2nd preference she has a better shot at. Anyway, she did prove in her last race which was a win that she can take back and isn’t a need the lead type of contender in here. If she goes in this race, she’s still a must bet in here but will be in top 3 most likely.
Beholder: This race is just a 2nd preference for her but if she goes in it which I kind of doubt I don’t think she won’t have much of a chance but you gotta look at her due to her huge beyer and fast time in her most recent start.
Top 3 Picks:
Dreaming of Julia
Kauai Katie (if she goes in it)
Spring In The Air (if Kauai Katie doesn’t go in it)
Filly and Mare Turf:
Marketing Mix: She won the local prep for this race here at SA which was the G1 Rodeo Drive Stakes last time out. She was a fast closing 2nd in the G1 Beverly D. 2 races back to I’m a Dreamer. She won 2 stakes at Woodbine this year and is coming into this race in fine form and is a contender in here.
I’m A Dreamer: She won the G1 Beverly D. 2 races back and was part of the 4 horses that wanted to win the G1 Flower Bowl in her most recent start finishing 4th. She has a chance in here and will be tough if she brings back her Beverly D. form in here.
Nahrain: She’s coming into this race in similar form like she did last year, which she won the Prix de l Opra, and she was 2nd in this race last year. She won the Flower Bowl in her most recent start and was part of the 4 horses that wanted to win the G1 Flower Bowl. She will be the pick in here for me like she was last time out.
Ridasiyna: She was the winner of this year’s Prix de l Opra in the most recent start. Need to look out for her since this race will be a much tougher than what she faced when she won her most recent start.
Lady Of Shamrock: She won the G3 Providencia last time she ran at SA, then won a pair of G1’s in her most recent starts in both the American Oaks and Del Mar Oaks. Was going to run but due to problems is only training up to this race and you got to look out for her despite the layoff.
Zagora: The rider might’ve moved too soon in the G1 Flower Bowl last time out. She was part of the 4 horses that wanted to win the G1 Flower Bowl in her most recent start finishing 3rd. So far this year she has only won 4 out of her 7 starts which include wins in the G3’s Hillsborough, Endeavour, and the Gallorette, and G2 Ballston Spa 2 races back. If the rider is more patient then the horse will be tough.
Nereid: She’s been winless so far since her win in the G1 American Oaks last year. In her lone SA turf start which was in the G1 Rodeo Drive last time out was a fast closing 2nd and would’ve probably won if it had drawn a better post position. I think she will be a sleeper in here and if she gets a good post position then she will be dangerous in here at a price.
The Fugue: She this year won the G1 Nassau Stakes 2 races back and was beaten a nose in the G1 Yorkshire Oaks in her most recent start. Hasn’t been seen since then but Gosden always plays a role in these kind of races so look out for her.
In Lingerie: She has 1st preference in here so let’s base her chances in this race. She will be making her turf debut if she goes in here and she won the G1 Spinster in her most recent start. This year, she won the G2 Black-Eyed Susan and G3 Burbonette Oaks earlier in the year on both Dirt and Polytrack. I think she may have a better chance in this race since it’s a tougher spot in the Ladies Classic but either way both are tough. So by the looks of it on her works she does seem to like the turf so I think she can have a good look at a price maybe.
Star Bling: She was best known for winning the G1 Matriarch in her most recent win. The last time she ran on turf was in her 4 year old debut was a disappointing one in a restricted stake. She was a fast closing 2nd to Include Me Out in Clement L. Hirsch 2 races back. Her most recent start was on regular dirt and didn’t seem to care for it finishing a disappointing 6th in the Zenyatta Stakes. With the move back to turf, maybe she’ll come back to where she left off with that Matriarch performance.
Top 3 Picks:
I’m A Dreamer
Include Me Out: She was a bit of a disappointment finishing 3rd in the G1 Zenyatta Stakes in her most recent start. She does like SA which she did win on an off track in the G1 Santa and G2 La Canada on a fast track. She won the G2 Marge Everett and was 2nd in the Vanity H. at Hollywood Park. Then won the G1 Clement L. Hirsch over the summer at Del Mar. I think she’ll be at a good price and didn’t really need to be 100% in her last race but thought should’ve put in more of a better effort than what she put in.
In Lingerie: She put this race as a 2nd preference but would probably have a chance in this race too but maybe better if she stuck to her 1st preference. She won the G1 Spinster in her most recent start. This year, she won the G2 Black-Eyed Susan and G3 Burbonette Oaks earlier in the year on both Dirt and Polytrack. I think she still has a chance in this race since it’s a tougher spot but either way both races she’s cross-entered are tough.
Love and Pride: She won the local prep in her most recent start which was the G1 Zenyatta Stakes lone speed. She was best known before that upsetting Royal Delta 2 races back in the G1 Personal Ensign. She really is tough in here since she already has a race over the racetrack and will be a contender in here.
Royal Delta: She won this race last year and won her most recent start in the G1 Beldame last time out. She so far this year was a winner in both the G2’s Delaware H. and Flure de Lis as she had a disappointing run earlier in the year in the Dubai World Cup. I think she will be the favorite in here if she goes in it since this is her 1st preference as she put the Classic against the boys as her 2nd preference but would have a much better shot in here.
Questing: She was dominant 3 year old filly over the summer at Saratoga in both G1’s of the Coaching Club American Oaks and Alabama Stakes. She was involved in a stretch duel with My Miss Aurelia in the most recent start in the G1 Cotillion and finished 2nd in that one. She can redeem herself and I think will be tough in here in a very tough competitive race.
My Miss Aurelia: She was the winner of last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies and that led her to an Eclipse Award for outstanding 2 Year Old Filly. She has only had 2 starts this year and both of them have been in wins. Won the 3 year old debut at Saratoga in the Mandy’s Gold Stakes and was involved in a stretch duel with Questing in the most recent start in the G1 Cotillion and won that one. I will make her my top pick in here in a very competitive Ladies Classic.
Awesome Feather: She was the winner of the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies 2 years ago and that led her to an Eclipse Award for outstanding 2 Year Old Filly. What has she done since then? Well she has continued success but however, injuries have kind of played a role in that success. She wins and then goes to the sidelines but let’s if she can continue this hot streak. Since the BC win 2 years ago, she won the G1 Gazelle last year and this year has only had 2 starts and 2 wins which in her most recent start was a win in the Nasty Storm Stakes at Belmont Park. Earlier in the year she won the Sunshine Millions Distaff at Gulfstream. I think she will be tough in here and hasn’t really met tough competition since her win in 2 years ago in the BC Juvenile Fillies.
My Top 3 Picks:
My Miss Aurelia
Love and Pride
I know these aren't the best analysis in the world but this one of the first times I've ever explained why a so and so horse has a chance this and that. Am sure they'll be better each and every time I handicap and write my explanations on a race.
Just digging through Friday right now...
For the Juvy Sprint, if Kauai doesn't go here, Beholder has to be a single. Who'll go with her?
Just like with the Juvy Fillies, Executiveprivilege looks like a lock there too, although I really like Spring in the air.
Fillies Turf is a mess because of all the Euros pre-entered, but I really really like Spring Venture. Every single race of hers has been devastating wins.
imo the lock single is royal delta, no american horse has ran a race in thier career the matches up with her last race. if she runs back to that she is unbeatable whetherr she
runs in the mare race or in the classic, i hope she runs in the classic because she will be 5to1 in the mare race she will be 4to5
imo she would have to improve 8 lengths off her last race just to beat the horse she beat in her last race
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