HP morning lines maker, should he be Replaced ?

[Igeteven]

From Thursday to today, I have notice many long shot that won, IMO, these horse should have never went off at those odds,

Question to all,

1. Does he making mistakes or is he doing the best he can ?

2, Does he needs to take a new course in how to write morning line odds ?

3. Should he be replaced and sent to a harness track somewhere in the U.S. as punishment ?

Any comments

[PeteMo]

From Thursday to today, I have notice many shot that won, IMO, these horse should have never went off at those odds,

Question to all,

1. Is he making mistakes or is he doing the best he can ?

2, Is he needs to take a new course in how to write morning line odds ?

3. Should he be replaced and sent to a harness track somewhere in U.S. as punishment ?

Any comments

# 3 is classic

I think he is usually very good at HP.

Once in a blue moon will handicap Delta, Evangline or some garbage like that and I see 30-1 shots who are 3-1 and think wow thats some serious steam, then I look at the pp's and see the horse should be 2-1.

[Joel]

From Thursday to today, I have notice many shot that won, IMO, these horse should have never went off at those odds,

Question to all,

1. Is he making mistakes or is he doing the best he can ?

2, Is he needs to take a new course in how to write morning line odds ?

3. Should he be replaced and sent to a harness track somewhere in U.S. as punishment ?

Any comments

He is a lot better than whoever is doing Bay Meadows, but his ML of the winner of today's 4th race was laughable. 10/1 ML..I had the winner at 3/1 on "my line"..goes off at 5/1 and wins.

Maybe the little known jock had something to do with the off line, but generally speaking, I believe the BHP dude is better than most of the other linemakers I see..please don't banish him to Cal Fixpo, Les..

[Igeteven]

I saw today or yesterday, a horse with the morning line as 20-1 drop to 7-1 and won by day light.

What gives ?

What I saw in the last few days, maybe he should go to a track in PA (harness racing of course)

[Kermit]

Remember, they assign odds on how they think the public will bet the horse, not on the chances they think the horse has of winning.
Seems to me it works out better for the careful handicaper more times than it hurts.

[Andyc]

Who cares? Any regular player knows when there is a bad morning line and usually isn't drawn in or away by action contrary to the line.

[Softs Son]

He is a lot better than whoever is doing Bay Meadows, but his ML of the winner of today's 4th race was laughable. 10/1 ML..I had the winner at 3/1 on "my line"..goes off at 5/1 and wins.

If you mean GGF, it is me and I didnt think I was doing THAT bad! In fact, I think I have done pretty good overall. In the 4 months I have done it, I have had some horses get bet down substantially and win or run well and, for example, Farmer Giles yesterday in the 3rd...you try to learn from what you might have done wrong and move on. I totally admit that was a horrible line on my part but I had a nice day other than that....just like the umpire or ref they only remember when you are wrong. My work buddy got in the car yesterday as we drove home and he made a comment on the big betdown horse Farmer Giles. Yet just about every other race went well for me. If I can get the favorite right and the winner's odds right, I am happy and I am happy with the job I have been doing for not doing it that long. Also, I think a line is supposed to show horses getting action too...if a linemaker is good at what he does, and a horse gets bet down I thnk that is a good sign to the public that that horse is primed for a good race or someone knows something. I cant speak for the HOL guy, but you can be wrong a lot...it's a fun job and I have been told by people I'm doing well at it...it's a very humbling task at times!!!

[Joel]

He is a lot better than whoever is doing Bay Meadows, but his ML of the winner of today's 4th race was laughable. 10/1 ML..I had the winner at 3/1 on "my line"..goes off at 5/1 and wins.

If you mean GGF, it is me and I didnt think I was doing THAT bad! In fact, I think I have done pretty good overall. In the 4 months I have done it, I have had some horses get bet down substantially and win or run well and, for example, Farmer Giles yesterday in the 3rd...you try to learn from what you might have done wrong and move on. I totally admit that was a horrible line on my part but I had a nice day other than that....just like the umpire or ref they only remember when you are wrong. My work buddy got in the car yesterday as we drove home and he made a comment on the big betdown horse Farmer Giles. Yet just about every other race went well for me. If I can get the favorite right and the winner's odds right, I am happy and I am happy with the job I have been doing for not doing it that long. Also, I think a line is supposed to show horses getting action too...if a linemaker is good at what he does, and a horse gets bet down I thnk that is a good sign to the public that that horse is primed for a good race or someone knows something. I cant speak for the HOL guy, but you can be wrong a lot...it's a fun job and I have been told by people I'm doing well at it...it's a very humbling task at times!!!

Yeah, I meant GGF. I don't play that circuit, sorry for the mistake.

Cool gig for you, but it seems that some of the ML's are WAY off what the actual odds end up being..especially on some of the winners..

[So.cal.fan]

Who is the ML maker at Del Mar?

[Joel]

Who cares? Any regular player knows when there is a bad morning line and usually isn't drawn in or away by action contrary to the line.

So you are saying a bad morning line doesn't affect the actual betting odds?

I know of several "regular players" who look at the morning lines the night before, and handicap accordingly, betting for value, etc..