My Kentucky Derby top 10

[Tvghrtvfan]

1. I'll Have Another-Has impressed me in his last couple starts. Did shock me in the Bob Lewis 2 races back and no shock with his win in the Santa Anita Derby beating #3 in that race. If he brings this up come Lousiville he's going to be your winner.

2. Union Rags-May still or may not be the Derby favorite after #4's performance. Anyway, has had a solid career but still promising. He ran great in his 3 year old debut in the Fountain of Youth and then had traffic problems in the Florida Derby as he was starting to make his late run at the end. So, now I believe maybe his race will be a toss out if he has not trouble come Derby time.

3. Creative Cause-Thought he ran a winning race in the Santa Anita Derby but #1 outran him to finish 2nd. So far during this Derby trail, he was a 3rd in the San Vicente to begin his 3 year old debut and was a winner 2 races back in the San Felipe. He appears to probably one of the best chances from CA to win the Derby as he'll be at short odds but #1 made himself look as good as #3 is.

4. Gemologist-He has an advantage over the CD course. Looked beat in the Wood Memorial but came back hard and strong to win outrunning #5 who ran a great race too. Won the KY Jockey Club last year and can be the Derby favorite probably off his Wood win.

5. Alpha-Was a monster at the beginning of the year taking 2 of the prep races leading up to the Wood Memorial (Withers and Count Fleet). Had to overcome alot of problems during the Wood Memorial and still ran an awesome race in defeat but #4 outran him. I think he can avoid traffic trouble in the Derby after his Wood effort.

6. Hansen-I think he's proven to be versatile. Last year's BC Juvenile lone speed as #2 had alot of trouble that day getting himself together but #6 was still able to be lone speed. He ran a terrible debut in the Holy Bull and then was able to sit off the pace in his last start in the Gotham Stakes last time out so that race proved he can sit in front or sit off the pace. Now let's see how he can run in the Blue Grass this weekend. He can surely bring this tremounds form to Louisville watch.

7. Take Charge Indy-He was lone speed in the Florida Derby beating #2 in that race. He briefly lost the lead in that race but fought back and won. Has a liking to CD but since there's always speed in the Derby I dont know if he'll be lone speed on Derby day since there's been very few horses who've been lone speed in the Derby in the past.

8. Secret Circle-Probably the best Baffert runner that he has since Baffert appears to be losing momentum with his 3 years olds so far lately. But so far he's been an Oaklawn lover with his wins in the Southwest and the Rebel Stakes. Now, let's see if he can get a 1 1/8-mile now off late charging #9 off that Rebel Stakes. Let's what happens because some are doubting he can't get the Derby distance.

9. Optimizer-Seems to be a hit and miss sometimes in big races and career alone. Almost became a hit in the Rebel Stakes last time out but may have moved too late. Since his next race will be in the Arkansas Derby he can get the perfect distance and even the perfect trip probably. So the trainer might be looking at this contender to be one of his great chances to win if he wins this Arkansas Derby.

10. Daddy Nose Best-Has so far been the winner of the average Derby prep races leading up to the Derby. With his wins in the El Camino Real Derby and the Sunland Derby in the most recent starts. Let's see if he can strut his stuff come Derby time off those wins since he appears to probably be the dark horse maybe in the Derby.

Note: If Bodemister wins the Arkansas Derby then will put him on this list.

What do you think of this Derby list?

[Pathagan]

You left out the winner of the Vinery Special at Turfway - same connections that won the Derby last year.

[Vince P]

1. I'll Have Another-Has impressed me in his last couple starts. Did shock me in the Bob Lewis 2 races back and no shock with his win in the Santa Anita Derby beating #3 in that race. If he brings this up come Lousiville he's going to be your winner.

2. Union Rags-May still or may not be the Derby favorite after #4's performance. Anyway, has had a solid career but still promising. He ran great in his 3 year old debut in the Fountain of Youth and then had traffic problems in the Florida Derby as he was starting to make his late run at the end. So, now I believe maybe his race will be a toss out if he has not trouble come Derby time.

3. Creative Cause-Thought he ran a winning race in the Santa Anita Derby but #1 outran him to finish 2nd. So far during this Derby trail, he was a 3rd in the San Vicente to begin his 3 year old debut and was a winner 2 races back in the San Felipe. He appears to probably one of the best chances from CA to win the Derby as he'll be at short odds but #1 made himself look as good as #3 is.

4. Gemologist-He has an advantage over the CD course. Looked beat in the Wood Memorial but came back hard and strong to win outrunning #5 who ran a great race too. Won the KY Jockey Club last year and can be the Derby favorite probably off his Wood win.

5. Alpha-Was a monster at the beginning of the year taking 2 of the prep races leading up to the Wood Memorial (Withers and Count Fleet). Had to overcome alot of problems during the Wood Memorial and still ran an awesome race in defeat but #4 outran him. I think he can avoid traffic trouble in the Derby after his Wood effort.

6. Hansen-I think he's proven to be versatile. Last year's BC Juvenile lone speed as #2 had alot of trouble that day getting himself together but #6 was still able to be lone speed. He ran a terrible debut in the Holy Bull and then was able to sit off the pace in his last start in the Gotham Stakes last time out so that race proved he can sit in front or sit off the pace. Now let's see how he can run in the Blue Grass this weekend. He can surely bring this tremounds form to Louisville watch.

7. Take Charge Indy-He was lone speed in the Florida Derby beating #2 in that race. He briefly lost the lead in that race but fought back and won. Has a liking to CD but since there's always speed in the Derby I dont know if he'll be lone speed on Derby day since there's been very few horses who've been lone speed in the Derby in the past.

8. Secret Circle-Probably the best Baffert runner that he has since Baffert appears to be losing momentum with his 3 years olds so far lately. But so far he's been an Oaklawn lover with his wins in the Southwest and the Rebel Stakes. Now, let's see if he can get a 1 1/8-mile now off late charging #9 off that Rebel Stakes. Let's what happens because some are doubting he can't get the Derby distance.

9. Optimizer-Seems to be a hit and miss sometimes in big races and career alone. Almost became a hit in the Rebel Stakes last time out but may have moved too late. Since his next race will be in the Arkansas Derby he can get the perfect distance and even the perfect trip probably. So the trainer might be looking at this contender to be one of his great chances to win if he wins this Arkansas Derby.

10. Daddy Nose Best-Has so far been the winner of the average Derby prep races leading up to the Derby. With his wins in the El Camino Real Derby and the Sunland Derby in the most recent starts. Let's see if he can strut his stuff come Derby time off those wins since he appears to probably be the dark horse maybe in the Derby.

Note: If Bodemister wins the Arkansas Derby then will put him on this list.

What do you think of this Derby list?

Do you want to amend this list now or after Dullahan wins the Blue Grass?

Vince P

[Johnnyrotten]

Daddy nose best - Very determined and classy type, looks like he will run all day, answered dirt question
Prospective - Has look of Derby horse and is steadily improving.
Went the Day Well - Very impressive and has already won on dirt
Creative Cause - Think he prepped the right way.
Dullahan - I am partial to horses that prep on turf and poly and have dirt pedigree.
Gemologist- Seems very game to me, but I do have concerns as to how he comes out of Wood
Union Rags Will get the distance and didn't run to bad all things considered
Sabercat He may be off the list after Arkansas Derby
Liason very disappointing but may find Churchill more to his liking
El Padrino probably won't get in , but will benefit with better riding tactics if he does get in. The Florida Derby was a text book example of over race-riding

[Vince P]

>>>> Dullahan - I am partial to horses that prep on turf and poly and have dirt pedigree.

As much as I joke about how much I like Dullahan, (my future bet), I see MAJOR obstacles.

He's already had TWO setbacks since January 1 which cost him about two weeks of training each time. And as minor as Dale Romans claims they were, it's extremely difficult for a 3yo to have double setbacks at this time of the year and be at their best for an early May race.

I'm not giving up but I wouldn't be surprised if he's removed from the TC trail between now and May 1. On the other hand I was extremely impressed with his comeback race on the turf where he made two separate moves - signs of a very classy horse.
And I have no doubt he can dirt.

Good Luck Dullahan.

Vince P

[Johnnyrotten]

He will have to step up his game in the Blue Grass, has same mom as Mine That Bird if I'm not mistaken, so he has the pedrigree. Plus I like to root for Desormeaux , polarizing figure that he is. This horse definitely is hard to like based on any speed figures i know of. Did run sneaky well in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.

[Vince P]

He will have to step up his game in the Blue Grass, has same mom as Mine That Bird if I'm not mistaken, so he has the pedrigree. Plus I like to root for Desormeaux , polarizing figure that he is. This horse definitely is hard to like based on any speed figures i know of. Did run sneaky well in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.

>>>> Did run sneaky well in the Breeders Cup Juvenile

Sort of.

After breaking slowly and getting bumped pretty good in the Juvy, he made up about 7 lengths on Hansen and Rags, running 4th to them beaten 6 lengths at 17.70-1. Including his last race he's improved in each start which is no mystery for young horses.

All in all, he's had three races over the Churchill strip, a 3rd, a 5th and a 4th. He also won the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last year which obviously makes him a major player this Saturday. But I'm still not convinced he's 107%.

Vince P

[Tvghrtvfan]

this list will change after the blue grass-arkansas derby weekend watch.

[Crazykid]

i will go ten deep under my horse in the trifecta in the kentucky derby and ill have another,creative cause and take charge indy wont be on my ticket

[Johnnyrotten]

i will go ten deep under my horse in the trifecta in the kentucky derby and ill have another,creative cause and take charge indy wont be on my ticket

Maybe they should call you NotSoCrazy Kid. I need more info leading up to the race, but I think C.C., IHA, TCI are all off my tickets as of 6:40pm april 9. If somebody held a gun to my head and forced me to give the super box right now it would be .........drum roll please........Daddy Nose Best,Prospective,Gemologist,Union Rags, of course I will probably use more horses. Lucky enuff to catch the tri last year. In the past i picked 1 horse and keyed him 1st and 2nd spot in the tri. Last year I picked 4 horses on top and keyed them to six each. If Nehro would have won , I would have gotten nothing. That worked last year so I may stick with the plan again. I don't think u can play a dime super.The super payoff is a thing of beauty every year. Still want to see Dullahan, Sabercat, Najaar,Howe Great , over the weekend to see how they perform. Got a strange feeling that Liason may fair better at Churchill and will be a huge price. Secret Circle has run too many good ones, Bodiemeister is being asked to do too much to soon, Isnt he clever forced to try and get earnings.

revised top ten after looking at tapes/numbers /works/

Daddy Nose Best
Prospective - almost nothing he does in Bluegrass will change opinion
Gemologist - Super race in Wood
Union Rags-
Dullahan- 57 and change work
Went the day Well- Very classy win in Spiral . Barry Irwin Super Genius ?
Sabercat - playing possum ?
Liason - See above comment
Howe Great- Barry Irwin again
Creative Cause- Could be replaced by Najaar, Bodiemeister, Dorchenko horse (now in bluegrass) Isnt he clever,