Del Mar Online Racing Community
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Last of the Triple Crown this year so let's try to go out a winner...
Power Broker always seemed to be second tier to some of Bafferts others this year. I think he may just cruise to an easy lead here and be gone, but I also think he'll be 4/5 or some absurd price. I'll go with Wabbajack for a price here. He looked good winning last out easily, and look who he was knocking heads with two back, Freedom Child.
Is it even fair to couple Justin Phillip with Fast Bullet here? Wow, you've got the clear pacesetter with a strong closer. That's a tough combo to beat. I highly doubt it, but if they're at 8/5, I'll go with them. Otherwise, I'm torn between Sage Valley, who's going great right now, and the old timer, Caixa Eletronica. Caixa probably needs a pace meltdown to win, so I'll take Sage Valley in the case that the couple is 3/5.
I'm such a chalk player that I always get suspicious when I don't land on the favorite when I handicap a race. I really don't mean to either. I always try to look at a race before looking at the morning line. But, I seem to pick the favorite 80% of the time anyway. I landed on Dayatthespa this time and she's one of the longer shots here. I'm wondering what I'm missing. She seems like she'll be the pacesetter here, unless Mizdirection absolutely loves the soft turf, and I'm very skeptical of that. So, easy lead and cruises home, right? Well, I'll probably get more than 6-1 for my troubles if that's the case!
OOOOhhh, boy. Here we go! I absolutely cannot wait to watch this race (even more than the Belmont, frankly). How much does Let Em Shine need the hard CA racing surface? There's the question! No one is going to be out there faster than him, so he'll get his easy lead, but will he last? I think 3-1 is fair enough of a price to say, yes, I think he will.
Point of Entry a single in the P4? Probably. Point of Entry as a win bet at 2/5? Probably not. I really like Bombaguia's chances here if Point of Entry doesn't like the slop. He had such a bad trip last out. He would have won going away with clear going. 15-1 seems awfully generous to me, but hey, I won't complain.
Do I give Orb a mulligan for his Preakness? Well, yeah, sort of. I think he's going to run a good race here.
If I'm waffling a little, it's because I've convinced myself that Incognito is sitting on a massive race. Go two back and watch his win in that Optional Claimer. He nearly gets knocked off of his feet but recovers, then gets sandwiched while trying to go between two horses, but still manages to bull his way through to get up at the wire.
Then, go back to the Peter Pan. Midway through the race, he drops way back because he doesn't like the dirt getting kicked in his face, but when he gets clear down the stretch, he puts the pedal to the metal and charges down the lane. No one was catching Freedom Child in that race, but notice that Incognito passes him like he's standing still after the wire. (And, yes, Haskin did lead me to watch these races...so sue me...). I'm a believer, sort of...
So, how to play this? If Orb stays at 3-1, I'll probably bite the bullet and take him. But, if he's 2-1 or lower, I'll take the Incognito flyer! Of course, in either case, I'll box them in the exacta just cause.
Good luck all!
Late Edit: Adding in my "How to cover as many horses as you can while still swinging for the fences for under $40" P4, also known as the "I may as well flush these twenties down the urnial" P4.
I'll play all-A's for $1 ($8), and one-B tickets for $0.50 ($8+$12+$6+$6) = $40
A: Dayatthespa, Centre Court
B: Hungry Island, Stephanie's Kitten, Laugh Out Loud, Mizdirection
A: Let Em Shine
B: Declan's Warrior, Clearly Now, Forty Tales
A: Point of Entry, Bombaguia
B: Side Road, Real Solution, Twilight Eclipse
A: Orb, Incognito
B: Revolutionary, Will Take Charge, Palace Malice
Oh well, as my ROI backs up faster than a tired horse down the stretch, I can only take comfort in the fact that I am going to be vacationing far far far from any track or OTB very soon...
itm: say it ain't so!
win: 22.8% (ROI: $1.67)
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