Del Mar Online Racing Community
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i wish i could bet even money that i would show a flat bet profit on straight win bets every day. i could quit my job.
3rd=three times bea
8th=laugh out loud
11th=will take charge
13th=east of danzig
If these 13 picks return over $26.00, Lester is off the Forum forever!
Best of luck to all parties involved..
i have been going to a simulcast here locally about 3 or 4 times a month since i moved here 4 months ago, maybe a total of 12 times or so. only one time in all those trips my top picks didnt show a profit for the day. like i said i generally play 3 tracks every race so about 30 races a day.
even on a bad day i always pick 4 or 5 winners an average day somewhere between 8 and 12 winners and on good days 15+ my picks are end up being a combination of favorites 4to1 or less middle price 9to2 to 10to1 and longshots 11to1+ like on this card saturday i have 5 favs, 2 middle price horses and 6 longshots. if one of the 6 longshots win i pretty much get back more than $26.00. with these picks it will probably only take 3 winners on the day to go over $26.00, i would say on the average i am picking 3 winners out of 13 races 80% of the time over the last 30 years, that doesnt mean im winning money. its simple to show a flat bet profit, the problem is if you bet say even $20.00 to win on all these horses a total of $260.00 and you get back say $300.00 its not worth spending the whole day for only a $40.00 profit. the only way i win is putting winners in a row.
Do you still strictly use Beyer numbers in your handicapping?
Women and cats will do as they please, and men and dogs should relax and get used to the idea.
Avatar: My cuzin Isaac Murphy - a jock I'm tying to emulate in character and winning percentage - almost 47% lifetime.
Based on the odds of the horses that you usually pick I would doubt that you would show more flat bet profit days than losing days. Doesn't mean you wouldn't show a flat bet profit overall. The higher the odds that a bettor typically bets the fewer flat bet profit days they typically have. I wouldn't exactly call you a chalk player.
Sarcasm:the ability to insult idiots without them realizing it
when im betting 3 full cards at 3 race tracks, almost every day i catch at least one horse who pays 15to1+ so that's $32.00+ then lets say i have another 4 or 5 winners that average an $8.00 mutual.
bingo its a flat bet profit for the day and that's a below average day. its the exception that my top choices dont show a flat bet profit for the day. thing is that doesnt make me a winner because im not out there trying to grind out a $100.00 day im out they trying to make a few grand playing gimmicks. but like i said, if they had a bet at even money that said pick 30 races a day and if your horses show a flat bet profit for the day at even money i would quit my job today. because its easy to show a flat bet profit almost every time i go to the track
Some longshots for Belmont tomorrow that I like.
Race 3: #2 Mononoke (10/1 ML) if this race comes off the turf, she appears to be the coning speed assuing It's Your Dine scratches (have a hunch she will). Ran ok off a layoff at Belmont last time and has a nice 418 tomlinson for the distance. The call in an awful NY Bred maiden.
Race 4: #11 Fiona's Hero (15/1 ML) intrigues me mainly because I am a little bit skeptical of this favorite. I don't like taking low percentage trainers at 3/5, and stretching out to a mile. He may win for fun, but lets take the bigger price here. Adds blinkers today so I expect him to be more prominent early here. Would have to run a career race but is worth a stab.
Race 6: #7 Micromanage (12/1 ML) Repole usually sends out some bullets on the big days in New York. When realistically spotted, he is 2 for 2. He has a win over the wet track at Monmouth, and though it was an unimpressive win, he should benefit having the race under his belt. Goes to Castellano, and is a worthy threat to big favorite Power Broker.
Race 8: #5 Laugh Out Loud (15/1 ML) CK and I are on the same horse here. Ran an uninspiring race in a Group 2 against males, but that was off an extended layoff. Ships to the US for the first time and does sport a Group 2 win over good to soft ground in France. She has run just as fast in Europe as the runners here have, and the 15/1 ML is too good to pass up with Gary Stevens riding.
Race 11: #12 Palace Malice (15/1 ML) set an insane pace in the Kentucky Derby with the blinkers added. They go off today and I expect him to revert to a stalking style. The stalking style is what usually wins the Belmont and he didn't show any evidence of tiring in his previous races. Mike Smith stays on, and I am skeptical of deep closers like Orb and Revolutionary.
Take my advise and do what you please
Noted! Glad I stopped by here one last time before logging off...thanks.
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