Del Mar Online Racing Community
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6 posts • Page 1 of 1
And, it looks like the list of short price horses will continue...I need help...
R6 - Zee Bros - ran a decent race in the Derby Trial, but 8f is probably too much for him, so the cutback looks like a winning move. Now, let's hope I can get that 2/1 ml. If he's lower than 7/5, I'll swap out to Undrafted, unless he's under 5/2, in which case, I'll sit.
R7 - Shining Copper - I need to support the CA guys! But, he looks tough here. Probably the coning speed, and I think he's been facing tougher than these guys. 8-1 ml? Really? Bet of the day!
R8 - Brushed by a Star - Love that Rosario picked up the mount. 2-1 ml? Not so much love. But, I'm not one to shy away from short prices.
R9 - Samitar - No Centre Court or Dayatthespa here! I really like this bet too. Here's hoping the 5/2 ml holds up!
R10 - Candyman E - Sometimes I really wonder if I'm missing something when I look at the ml. 6/1 on this guy? Oh well, I will speak with my money!
R11 - Swift Warrior - May get an easy lead here...then he will be *gone*!
R12 - Take Orb at 3/5????? That is the big question! I am inclined to say no to that. I think I'm going to stay out of this one for a win bet. I want him to win so bad that I really can't see myself betting on another horse. But, if I were to, I would take a flyer on Goldencents. O'neill is going to have him flying and I can totally see that he could get a very easy lead and he just might take them all the way.
Now the P4 on the other hand...
Right now, I'm thinking this ($2 + $18 + $16 = $36)
$2 P4 (Race 9 - 12)
4 / 7 / 9 / 1
1,3,4,6 / 4,7,8 / 1,2,9 / 1
3,4 / 7,8 / 1,9 / 2,5,7,9
Good luck all!
Changing up my P4 ticket a bit. After watching some more replays, I think Old Tune in R9 has a decent chance to run away with this one. She'll be the speed of the race and she's wicked tough on the lead. I'll still stick with Samitar for the win, but will drop Embarr on the first P4 ticket, and drop Pianist on the 2nd (WARNING!!!! Everyone should now play a big bet on Embarr...)
And R10, how can I ignore Sage Valley...Dropping Laurie's Rocket.
1,3,4,5 / 4,7,10 / 1,2,9 / 1
4,5 / 7,10 / 1,9 / 2,5,7,9
Couple longshots at Pimlico today to think about, this is before scratches of course and may be edited.
Race 3: #4 Thames Trader (12/1 ML) is 2 for 3 on the turf and all of those three starts came sprinting on the turf. Comes off a course and distance win against softer but could fall into a beautiful trip drawn inside of all the speed and could save ground. Starts 3rd off the layoff with Serpa up and the odds are right!
#9 Colossal Gift (20/1 ML) is one that I would be willing to take a flyer on. He had a troubled trip cutting back to a turf sprint when drawn on the rail, but still ran on to be 3rd. He has good turf form further down in the past performances. Worked a bullet for this, and in a race that has a fair amount of speed, he could be a threat to come from the off the pace under Jeremy Rose.
Race 6: #4 Res Judicata (10/1 ML) looks like he could benefit from the swift pace that is sure to take place today. Cuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs off a 2nd place finish to a nice horse in Battier. Willing to throw out the Gulfstream race off the layoff and is training well for the owner/trainer of Smarty Jones, the 2004 Preakness winner. He is a stakes winner and looks to be the value play here.
Race 9: #1 Hard Not to Like (10/1 ML) Her Keeneland race was too bad to be true, so I am going to throw that out. Her run 3 back at Gulfstream off a layoff would be good enough to win this. Looks to sit a stalking trip just off the speed of Pianist and Silver Screamer. She has run fast enough to win this and moves from Rocco to Velazquez. Worthy of another chance here.
Race 12: #7 Will Take Charge (12/1 ML) Orb is going to take a heckuva lot of beating, but I think Will Take Charge is the longshot that will show up today. He was in an impossible spot last time, off a layoff over a track that he didn't care to handle, and to boot, he had a troubled trip. His fast track races are superior to his wet, and he starts 2nd off the short layoff. Major jockey move from Court to Smith, and he is the magic ML odds.
Race 13: #3 Ethelred (10/1 ML) comes off a 2nd place finish where he went to the lead for some reason. There is a good amount of speed signed up in the finale, and it appears as though this one will get the setup. Trainer enters another speed horse to ensure the fast pace for this one. I am skeptical of Code West, though he appears to be much best, I question the reasoning for running in this particular spot. Why run back in 2 weeks? Obviously appears to be a prep for bigge things. If he wins this, so be it, but will take a stand.
Take my advise and do what you please
ing to the max here.....and I apologize.....
I swear, one of the above posters calls me last night with three "tips:"
Hard Not To Like,
Will Take Charge who I also liked, but croaked.
How come Skyring wasn't posted?
Tipster prolly trying to keep his odds up, IMO.
Women and cats will do as they please, and men and dogs should relax and get used to the idea.
Avatar: My cuzin Isaac Murphy - a jock I'm tying to emulate in character and winning percentage - almost 47% lifetime.
You get the ims between TT and I last ni ght on facebook?
I would be a vegetarian if BACON grew on trees
Maybe this post should have been titled "How I got punked by old jockeys on the lead".
Really, you have Mike S**** stealing one on Pianist, and then the deadly double of Gary Stevens stealing one on Skyring and absolutely pickpocketing the Preakness on Oxbow.
Yes! Thank you, Baffert! You are still on the Christmas card list. You are my only friend... +$7.20
Couldn't get by Rosario and the Kitten. I thought he was going to sweep on by going around the turn.
Joel...you're treading on thin water right now...
It's never good when the announcer says "And Samitar down the middle of the track...not quite good enough..."
Scratched! Good thing too...Sage Valley was awesome! I did end up on him too (see my P4 late note). I am so glad I finally got around to watching the replays on him. He's definitely going great.
Nope...he was just plain old gone...
JOEL!!!!!?!??!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? I take back what I said about your ride on Friday. You, sir, are #1 on my "may be banished" list.
I had the right idea...just the wrong horse...
Whoops! The warning should have been to play big on Pianist!!!!
Well, at least I got something right on that P4...
Win: 20% (ROI: $1.48)
Win: 23.9% (ROI: $1.65)
The "No Christmas card for you" list:
The "Walking on thin ice" list:
#1: Joel Rosario
6 posts • Page 1 of 1
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