Vince P wrote:Not that simple.
Granted if you try this the most you can lose is 5% - maybe even less if you use 5 Dimes' reduced lines, but you have to be very, very careful.
Unless your original plan and gambling history is to Middle all the time and attempt to eke out a small profit in the long run, then you may be shortchanging yourself.
For example, if you love the Ravens like Fredo does, why would you risk losing 5% on a great line (+4.5) that he got, by attempting to middle when your chances are about 20-1 to hit the middle? And yes, I do I realize this is exactly what happened in the 49r/Falcon game last week. I actually posted those line changes.
If I were Fredo and I wagered like $7,700 on BLT +4.5 I might "save" a percentage (25% ???) of that by wagering on the 49rs at now -3.5 while trying to hit both, but I certainly wouldn't bet the whole $7,700 on the 49rs -3.5, especially if I loved the Ravens and had a fix in on the game.
Actually you do make sense. For future reference your odds of hitting a middle need to be lower than 20-1 to get a positive expectation bet. If you were to put up $110 on each side of the bet you would be risking $10 to try and win $200, exactly 20-1. based on some old research I have the margin of victory of 4 points in an NFL game happens 6.8% of the time and would be a 13.7-1 prop. So while trying for the middle is not a bad bet mathematically it may be a horrible bet if you have a strong opinion one way or the other.