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Another college football season over --- and the bankroll grew a bit. I'm tempted to make this a weekly thing next year, but not sure I can do the time commitment. Guess I have 8 months of slurping Del s to think about it!
My 2009-10 college bowl selection record ended up at 20-14 (.588). The BCS bowls were 3-2. My bowl picks on the DMFF since 2007 are 64-35-1 (.646) against the point spread, and there hasn't been a losing season yet. The details:
New Mexico: WYOMING +11 v. Fresno State: WON OUTRIGHT
St. Petersburg: CENTRAL FLORIDA +2 1/2 v. Rutgers: loss
New Orleans: MIDDLE TENN. +3 1/2 v. So. Miss.: WON OUTRIGHT
Las Vegas: BYU + 2 1/2 v. Oregon State: WON OUTRIGHT
Poinsettia: CALIFORNIA -3 1/2 v. Utah: loss
Hawaii: SMU +14 v. Nevada: WON OUTRIGHT
Meineke: PITTSBURGH -2 1/2 v. North Carolina: failed to cover
Little Ceasars: MARSHALL +3 v. Ohio: WON OUTRIGHT
Emerald: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA -7 1/2 v. Boston College: COVERED
Music City: KENTUCKY +6 1/2 v. Clemson: loss
Independence: TEXAS A & M + 6 1/2 v. Georgia: loss
Eagle Bank: UCLA -4 1/2 v. Temple: COVERED
Champs: MIAMI - 3 1/2 v. Wisconsin: loss
Humanitarian: IDAHO +1 v. Bowling Green: WON OUTRIGHT
Holiday: NEBRASKA -2 1/2 v. Arizona: COVERED
Armed Forces: AIR FORCE +5 v. Houston: WON OUTRIGHT
Sun: STANFORD +10 v. Oklahoma: WON
Texas: NAVY +6 1/2 v. Missouri: WON OUTRIGHT
Insight IOWA STATE + 2 1/2 v. Minnesota: WON OUTRIGHT
Peach: TENNESSEE + 5 1/2 v. Virginia Tech: loss
Outback: AUBURN -8 1/2 v. Northwestern: loss
Gator: FLORIDA STATE +3 v. West Virginia: WON OUTRIGHT
Capital One: LSU +1 v. Penn. State: loss (early bettors could have won with LSU + 2 1/2)
Rose: OHIO STATE + 4 1/2 v. Oregon: WON OUTRIGHT
Sugar: FLORIDA -13 v. Cincinnatti: COVERED
International: SOUTH FLORIDA -7 v. N. Illinois: COVERED
Papa John: SOUTH CAROLINA - 3 1/2 v. Connecticut: loss
Cotton: OKLAHOMA STATE +3 v. Ole Miss: Rebels loss
Liberty: ARKANSAS -7 1/2 v. East Carolina: loss
Alamo: TEXAS TECH -7 1/2 v. Michigan State: COVERED
Fiesta: TEXAS CHRISTIAN -7 1/2 v. Boise State: loss
Orange: IOWA +5 1/2 v. Georgia Tech: WON OUTRIGHT
GMAC: CENTRAL MICHIGAN -2 1/2 v. Troy: COVERED (by 1/2 point in OT!)
BCS: TEXAS +4 v. Alabama: loss
See you Next Year!
Last edited by CapeCodDoug on Fri Jan 08, 2010 6:59 am, edited 21 times in total.
In the Christmas week bowl games, I've got a split opinion on some Pac 10 teams. It's kind of a toss-up proposition, but the first play is BYU + 2 1/2 over Oregon State in Las Vegas, where BYU has usually done very well.
The first departure from the "take the points" theme will be shelling out - 3 1/2 on the Cal Bears over Utah in San Diego. This one seems like good value, though patient betters may want to wait and see if the spread on either of these bowls moves to three.
Christmas Eve, I'm back with the 'dog, currently getting +14 on Southern Methodist against Nevada in Hawaii. Good luck, and a merry Christmas to the DMFF!
Saturday's bowl schedule has the most compelling and puzzling betting game of the year, as two very different 8-4 teams meet in the Emerald Bowl. The stats are super lopsided here, and USC should be more than 14 points better than Boston College, but the psychology of the game works completely the other way. 8-4 is a train wreck season for the Trojans, maybe half of Hollywood won't be prowling the sidelines with Pete as they jump off the bandwagon. Coaching controversy, tragedy, and graduation was supposed to mean the Eagles wouldn't be bowl bound at this year, now they have a tempting target to shoot at. Throw in two freshman QBs, one of them 25 years old, and what to do?! After 117 straight sleepless hours I've decided to throw some bucks at SC - 7 1/2, with a little prayer.
The other 12/26 games have no intrigue or edge, but for completeness my picks are Pittsburgh -2 1/2 over NC in Charlotte, and Marshall +3 over Ohio in Detroit.
Hope your Boxing Day finds you physically or spiritually at the great race place, enjoy the day!
A sub theme to "take the points" is how to rank middling SEC teams against the top of the ACC; we will revisit this later in the week. For now, it looks like Kentucky is the bargain in Nashville tonight, although I should have got +7 before half the Clemson team was suspended. Better grab all you can at +6 1/2 before and more Tiger shnanigans hit the wire! Good Luck to all, CCD.
nice start doug.
yep had to settle for +6.5
clemson is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games versus SEC conference opponents.
clemson is only 1-2 ATS in their three games as a road favorite this season.
kentucky won on the road this season against Auburn, Vanderbilt and Georgia.
kentucky is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
kentucky is 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record on the season.
gl to us.
That was a tough one last night, Score. Maybe we can rebound today, with a couple of once-great programs, A & M and Georgia, that have found themselves bereft of defensed this year. Anyone want to tackle the Total here, which has swollen to as high as 66? I am taking the points (+7 if I can get it) with the Aggies and going to say a little prayer . . .
You must have re-said those prayers many times, Score. A baffling heart-stopper, unless you smugly turned in at halftime!
Obviously it was a fiasco for me, but no time to reflect. Tonight I really like the Hurricanes -3 1/2 in the Shalala Bowl, I think Miami FL will successfully engineer a long term turnaround for their program. Wonder what people think of UCLA's chances in frigid D.C.? I have their defense rated high, hope they have brought a pair of gloves for everybody, though. So far my respect for the competitive PAC 10 hasn't been rewarded, but we will see tonight!
hmmm. maybe a play on the under in the temple/ucla game???
think id just as soon pass on that game.
like the canes too. seems like everybody , their brother, grannyone, and grannytwo is on the canes. thats a bit scary.
Cape Cod has a pretty good idea in "Taking the Points."
If you blindly bet the dogs in each bowl game through the last 5 years, you'd be in Venice, Italy right now, partying with Alyssa, Scarlett and Sookie Stackhouse.
I keep track of these silly things. Last year, if you took each dog on the spread and money line, you would have come out almost dead even. However, in 2005-2008, you would have made a small fortune by taking the Bowl dogs vs the spread, and on the money line in every Bowl game.
How's this year going?
Well, pretend you wagered $55/50 on each dog vs the spread and 33% straight up on the dog's money line. You'd be a little ahead.
Dog spread record: 7-5-1; a profit of $75 based on 55/50 wager. ($350.00 - $275.00)
Dog on the money line: 7-6; profit of $140.73 based on wagering 33% (or $17.00) on Five Dimes' "reduced" money line through last night.
I'll continue monitoring this nonsense (I sent Cape a PM about this earlier this month) and let you know how much Dogs win/lose against the spread, and on the money line.
Women and cats will do as they please, and men and dogs should relax and get used to the idea.
Avatar: My cuzin Isaac Murphy - a jock I'm tying to emulate in character and winning percentage - almost 47% lifetime.
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