Belichick

[Sluggo4171]

If Norv Turner had called the exact same play, in the exact same situation, with the exact same result, would it still be the correct call?

Bellychick needs to stop reading the press releases that say what a genius he is..Beckron nailed it..a "high school" play call, at best..

Norv > Bellychick

..Norv? What is that last thing Norv won? Oh yeah...absolutely loveing nothing. Norv gets love because of one thing. He flat out sucks. he couldnt motivate a bus load of 18 year male virgins to "perform" at the chicken ranch buffet.

[Vince P]

If Norv Turner had called the exact same play, in the exact same situation, with the exact same result, would it still be the correct call?

Yes, at least imo and according to that linked article. Please read it. And then read it again.

Stats don't lie unless they're talking about chest sizes.

Vince P

[Beckron]

I have a question. When they didn't convert on fourth down what did the winning percentage fall to?

[Sluggo4171]

I have a question. When they didn't convert on fourth down what did the winning percentage fall to?

According to vince.....7.77%

[Vince P]

I have a question. When they didn't convert on fourth down what did the winning percentage fall to?

It fell to 17.7%, but if they converted, which they had a great chance to, then it would have been 107.7%.

Statistically, at the time, it was the right call. After the fact, of course, it was the wrong call.

Vince P

[Beckron]

Statistically my @$$

I think I know why you are 7-17

[Vince P]

Statistically my @$$

I think I know why you are 7-17

I'm now 7-18 after the Rams' loss - please don't make fun.

Here ya go, read below and then read it again:-)

Vince P

The Patriots would certainly win the 60 percent of the time they convert. They would also win the 47 percent of the time they’d stop the Colts. Overall, going for it gave them a 79 percent chance to win.

Now, what if the Patriots had punted? On average, the net punt would have been 38 yards, and the Colts would have taken over on their 34. Statistically, teams will score 30 percent of the time in that situation, meaning a punt gave the Patriots a 70 percent chance to win.

[Dgstan]

The Patriots would certainly win the 60 percent of the time they convert. They would also win the 47 percent of the time they’d stop the Colts. Overall, going for it gave them a 79 percent chance to win.

Now, what if the Patriots had punted? On average, the net punt would have been 38 yards, and the Colts would have taken over on their 34. Statistically, teams will score 30 percent of the time in that situation, meaning a punt gave the Patriots a 70 percent chance to win.

If this is really the case, why don't more coaches go for it on 4th down? Surely, Bellichick can't be the first guy to do the math, can he?

[Vince P]

The Patriots would certainly win the 60 percent of the time they convert. They would also win the 47 percent of the time they’d stop the Colts. Overall, [b]going for it gave them a 79 percent chance to win.

Now, what if the Patriots had punted? On average, the net punt would have been 38 yards, and the Colts would have taken over on their 34. [b]Statistically, teams will score 30 percent of the time in that situation, meaning a punt gave the Patriots a 70 percent chance to win.

If this is really the case, why don't more coaches go for it on 4th down? Surely, Bellichick can't be the first guy to do the math, can he?

Honestly, I don't think Belichick even considered the math, though he probably knew he had a great chance of converting and winning the game. The reason most coaches don't go for it in this situation is because of exactly what's happened to Belichick - you don't make it and everyone is ready to castrate you without doing any analysis.

Plus, anything against the norm in the ol NFL is considered taboo. I'll side with a guy who's won 3 SuperBowls in this one and who had the balls to make the best call at the time even though it didn't work out.

Vince P

[Beckron]

Did anybody verify those stats? I mean I could say that they had a 79% chance of losing and don't question it. Only thing is, I have the result on my side.

You know I kid because I love VP.