Incredible Oscar Odds move for Best Picture

[Vince P]

One of my "fetishes" is following line movements in Sports. About 4-5 weeks ago, the 5 Dimes' odds for Best Picture had Lincoln at -1000, which meant you had to put $10.00 on Lincoln to win $1.00, or Lincoln was basically a *1/9 shot to win Best Picture, at least with 5 Dimes.

Also, at that time (probably the opening line) Argo was +400 which meant that if you put $1.00 on Argo you would win $4.00. The other Oscar nominees for Best Pictures all had much higher odds.

As the weeks progressed, Argo went from +400 to +350 to +300 to +200 to even money; then to -150, -2.75 and now:

Argo -530
Lincoln +450
Silver Linings Playbook +4000
Les Miserables +5000
Life of Pi +5000
Zero Dark Thirty +8000
Amour +10000
Django Unchained +13500
Beasts of the Southern Wild +20000

I realize that there is a max wager of, I think $50.00 on Entertainment so it doesn't take too many wagers to move the odds, but this is the biggest swing I have even seen on any prop.

There's a forum follower of these things (who used to post in here a lot - think stats) who made several wagers on Argo when they were +3.50 to +2.50.

I've seen Argo, Lincoln and Django; I think all three were great although Django was a bit over the top.

Vince P

[Theiman]

What about Lay the Favorite?

[Andyc]

What about Lay the Favorite?

You're talking about a betting strategy and not the movie, right?

[Theiman]

What about Lay the Favorite?

You're talking about a betting strategy and not the movie, right?

One of those wont make you money, and you can bet on it.

[Vince P]

Interesting article on why there was a huge shift in favoritism.

Vince P

http://www.mercurynews.com/entertainmen ... rynews.com

The Ben Affleck thriller about the rescue of American hostages from Tehran, Iran, in the 1970s has made a huge comeback to favorite status. But the turning point for the film came with a snub that seemingly knocked it out of the running for the top prize......(click link)