One more whack at the college bowl games...

[CapeCodDoug]

Another college football season is in the books, but this year no showed a modest loss betting the bowl games: 16-17-2. Over the previous six years my picks here have now won at the rate of 96-79-3. Here's the complete slate:


New Mexico Bowl: NEVADA +10 vs. Arizona; WIN
Idaho Potato Bowl: TOLEDO +10 vs. Utah St.;
Poinsettia Bowl: SAN DIEGO ST. + 3 1/2 v. Brigham Young U.;
Beef O'Brady Bowl: CENTRAL FLORIDA -7 v. Ball State; WIN
New Orleans Bowl: EAST CAROLINA +6 1/2 v. La.-Lafayette;
Las Vegas Bowl: WASHINGTON +5 1/2 v. Boise St.; WIN
Hawaii Bowl: SMU +12 1/2 v. Fresno St. WIN
Little Caesar's Bowl: CENTRAL MICHIGAN + 6 v. W. Kentucky: WIN
Military Bowl: SAN JOSE ST. - 7 v. Bowling Green; WIN
Belk Bowl: DUKE + 9 1/5 v. Cincinnati;
Holiday Bowl: UCLA -3 v. Baylor;
Independence Bowl: OHIO +7 v. La. Monroe; WIN
Russell Bowl: VIRGINIA TECH + 2 v. Rutgers; WIN
Meineke Bowl: TEXAS TECH -13 v. Minnesota;
Armed Forces Bowl: AIR FORCE -2 v. Rice;
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: ARIZONA ST. -14 v. Navy; WIN
Pinstripe Bowl: WEST VIRGINIA -4 v. Syracuse;
Alamo Bowl: OREGON ST. -3 1/2 v. Texas;
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: TEXAS CHRISTIAN -2 1/2 v. Michigan St.;
Music City Bowl: VANDERBILT -7 1/2 v. North Carolina St.; WIN
Sun Bowl: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA -7 1/2 v. Georgia Tech;
Liberty Bowl: TULSA +1 v. Iowa St.; WIN
Chick-fil-a Bowl: LSU -6 v. Clemson;
Heart of Dallas Bowl: PERDUE +17 v. Oklahoma St.;
Gator Bowl: MISSISSIPPI ST. +1 v. Northwestern;
Outback Bowl: SOUTH CAROLINA -5 v. Michigan; (push)
Capital One Bowl: GEORGIA -9 v. Nebraska; WIN
Rose Bowl: STANFORD - 5 1/2 v. Wisconsin; WIN
Orange Bowl: FLORIDA ST. -13 1/2 v. Northern Illinois; WIN
Sugar Bowl: FLORIDA -14 v. Louisville;
Fiesta Bowl: OREGON -8 1/2 v. Kansas State; WIN
Cotton Bowl: OKLAHOMA +3 v. Texas A & M;
Compass Bowl: MISSISSIPPI - 3 1/2 v. Pittsburgh; WIN
Go Daddy Bowl: KENT STATE +4 v. Arkansas St. (push)
BCS: NOTRE DAME + 9 1/2 v. Alabama;

There will be no more games until late August, when I will most likely be losing a lot of shirts up at Saratoga, and trying to catch up betting Del Mar in the evenings! Can't wait, and hope that until then your ventures are winning ones!

[Vince P]

Hi, not sure what happened to last week's post, but did go 1-1 to start off the bowl season picks. CCD's record for the previous five years was 80-62-1, and I'll try to improve on that!

Last week:

New Mexico Bowl: NEVADA +10 vs. Arizona; WIN
Idaho Potato Bowl: TOLEDO +10 vs. Utah St.; loss


Here's a couple more picks for the next few games:

Poinsettia Bowl: SAN DIEGO ST. + 3 1/2 v. Brigham Young U.; sticking with the 'dogs....
Beef O'Brady Bowl: CENTRAL FLORIDA -7 v. Ball State;...until the games take place in Florida!


Good Luck and a Merry Christmas to the DMFF!

I think Mary Locked it Down by mistake.

I'm with you on the Dogs.

For the 17th straight year I will blindly wager on all dogs plus the points and then invest 33% of my dog point bet on the money line.

I.e. $30 win on Nevada + 10 points and then $10 on Nevada + 2.55.

But last Saturday was a bummer.

With about 1:17 left in that game I headed towards the cashier's line in Harvey’s 5 Dimes Sportsbook room. When I got there to collect the manager told me that I won my point spread ticket but lost the money line bet on Nevada.

We got into a big ol argument.

He explained to me that Nevada figuratively allowed Arizona to score TWO TDs with less than 0:37 left.

I told him that that wasn't physically or mathematically possible.

Long story short, I was a loser on that game re the Money line. I'm still not convinced but nevertheless I never got paid.

Moral to the story: Don’t ever count your chickens before they have babies.

Vince P

[CapeCodDoug]

VInce, with all the money you are pumping into Harvey's book, I'm surprised the management didn't comp you for the New Year's midnight cruise across the lake on their private yacht ..... that would be a wake-up call for sure!

Hope you keep sticking to your strategy, even if it means cutting back on the quackos for a while.....

[Vince P]

Ulgh!

After 4 games, dogs are 1-3 v the spread and 0-4 v the money line.

So after these 4 games Vince is down $60 (bet approx $30 to win $30 on 5 Dimes' reduced line) v the spread and down $40 (bet $10 on money line to win whatever).

So I'm down a little more than $100 overall using the Pythagorean Theorem of blindly betting Doggies in all Bowl games.

Made two wagers this morning and already off to a horrendous start.

Can someone please stop me from gambling?

Vince P

[Vince P]

Hi, not sure what happened to last week's post, but did go 1-1 to start off the bowl season picks. CCD's record for the previous five years was 80-62-1, and I'll try to improve on that!

So far this year, even-up at 3-3:

New Mexico Bowl: NEVADA +10 vs. Arizona; WIN
Idaho Potato Bowl: TOLEDO +10 vs. Utah St.;
Poinsettia Bowl: SAN DIEGO ST. + 3 1/2 v. Brigham Young U.;
Beef O'Brady Bowl: CENTRAL FLORIDA -7 v. Ball State; WIN
New Orleans Bowl: EAST CAROLINA +6 1/2 v. La.-Lafayette;
Las Vegas Bowl: WASHINGTON +5 1/2 v. Boise St.; WIN

'Dogs are 0-6 against the money line so far, but I'll take lots of points and pray on Christmas Eve:

Hawaii Bowl: SMU +12 1/2 v. Fresno St.


Good Luck and a Merry Christmas to the DMFF!

Nice catch on the Mustangs, Cape.

After going 0-6 v the money line, a huge dog not only beat the spread but walloped an 11.5 favorite (5 Dimes) rather easily at +3.85.

So, after 7 games - if one were to wager blindly on every dog, $30 v the spread against 5 Dimes' reduced spread line, and $10 on the money line, you would be:

3-4 v the SPREAD for a net loss of about $34.00.
and
1-6 v the MONEY line for a net loss of 22.50 (1 winner on Christmas Eve would have paid you $48.50 inc your $10 investment)

Total doggie losses: -$56.50 and counting, hopefully not, lol.

Vince P

[CapeCodDoug]

Nice catch on the Mustangs, Cape.

After going 0-6 v the money line, a huge dog not only beat the spread but walloped an 11.5 favorite (5 Dimes) rather easily at +3.85.

So, after 7 games - if one were to wager blindly on every dog, $30 v the spread against 5 Dimes' reduced spread line, and $10 on the money line, you would be:

3-4 v the SPREAD for a net loss of about $34.00.
and
1-6 v the MONEY line for a net loss of 22.50 (1 winner on Christmas Eve would have paid you $48.50 inc your $10 investment)

Total doggie losses: -$56.50 and counting, hopefully not, lol.

Vince P

What I admire most about you Vince is that you stick with your strategy because you have the intestinal fortitude from a lifetime of professional gambling....

Of course I'm envious, because you have a whole floor at Harvey's available for your use anytime you want, at least when Elvis isn't playing there.

But what I've found trying to get these bets in trough a bookie up in Maine is that really no one around here is paying attention, and that if I used any one-dimensional strategy too long, I'd be moving the line 3 points all by myself before long, so I gotta mix it up a bit.

Keep up the good work Vince, and I think you will be rewarded with a few more surprises before the year is over!

[Vince P]

What I admire most about you Vince is that you stick with your strategy because you have the intestinal fortitude from a lifetime of professional gambling....

Of course I'm envious, because you have a whole floor at Harvey's available for your use anytime you want, at least when Elvis isn't playing there.

But what I've found trying to get these bets in trough a bookie up in Maine is that really no one around here is paying attention, and that if I used any one-dimensional strategy too long, I'd be moving the line 3 points all by myself before long, so I gotta mix it up a bit.

Keep up the good work Vince, and I think you will be rewarded with a few more surprises before the year is over!

Lol. I can't tell you how many times I attempted to make a wager on 5 Dimes and after I click "continue" but before I "submit" the lines change. Most of the times the lines seem to change against me, but sometimes for the better.

And yes, I will stick with the dogs till I either go broke or my wife kicks me outta the house again.

Last night was pretty cool when Kentucky went for it on 4th and 2 from the 20 with 2 minutes left. Dumb call imo, but it put us into a win-win situation. If Kentucky converts and eventually scores a TD we win v the point spread. If they don't convert, which they didn't, we win the point spread bet and the money line wager at +$2.05.

So as a gambler, loved the dumb coaching decision.

That being said, dogs are now 4-4 v the spread for a loss of about $4.00 (vig) and 2-6 v the money line for a loss of only $12.00.

Total negative revenue now -$16.00, but we're closing in as I'll keep plugging along with the doggies.

Vince P

[Vince P]

Ouch!

No sugarcoating this one, but if anyone saw the Duke game, well, all I'll say is you get lucky sometimes and not so lucky other times. Duke went from a sure money line win at like + 3.77 and +9.5 points to a loss in less than a minute. Unbelievable. That game will simply go down as the toughest beat in the history of my gambling experiences.

Dogs went 1-2 with a straight up win on the money line last night.

Dogs are now 5-6 v the spread for a loss of $36.00 (bet approx. $31 to win $30 on 5 Dimes’ reduced line) and 3-8 v the money line for a loss of only $18.00 which includes last night’s minor Baylor upset at +1.40.

Total negative revenue now -$54.00 if one were to bet $30 v the spread and $10 on the money line on all Doggies.

Vince P

[Kermit]

Vince, quit betting against the Southwest Conference teams! Baylor and SMU won.
Uhhh - not sure about Rice U vs AF...pass
Who cares if the Texas Tea-sips lose.

[Vince P]

Pooches went 2-1 tonight to even things up at 7-7.

Money line went 1/3 - the winner Ohio at +2.45.

Total spread losses: about $10 in reduced vigs. Money line dogs now 4-10 for a loss of just $13.50. Total dog losses = @$25.17

Have 4 minor dogs tomorrow and one bomber, Navy.

Vince P