Del Mar  :    :  Racing Community

Del Mar Online Racing Community


Take The Points

A place to mingle, get to know one-another, and chat about topics that aren't directly horse-racing related.

Take The Points

Postby MikeFromGardena » Fri Oct 19, 2012 10:42 am

Last week the underdog was 12-2 against the spread in the NFL. Throw out the Niner game (from this week) if you want, it is still an impressive number.
The dog has covered 64% this year in the NFL.

It looks like there is more parity in the NFL than people realize.
MikeFromGardena
 
Posts: 336
Joined: Wed Jul 15, 2009 9:00 am

Re: Take The Points

Postby MaryS » Fri Oct 19, 2012 11:08 am

Parity, indeed. Eleven teams are at 3-3.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/football/ ... 4881.story
I hate it when I don't forward chain letter and I die the next day!
User avatar
MaryS
 
Posts: 4270
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2009 8:12 am
Location: Del Mar and Poway CA

Re: Take The Points

Postby Vince P » Fri Oct 19, 2012 11:09 am

MikeFromGardena wrote:Last week the underdog was 12-2 against the spread in the NFL. Throw out the Niner game (from this week) if you want, it is still an impressive number.
The dog has covered 64% this year in the NFL.

It looks like there is more parity in the NFL than people realize.


As Dave Tuley in the DRF says, there will be a regression to the means as favorites bounce back a little, but probably not that much to make it even close to 50% for the season.

Here's a good article on it:

http://www.drf.com/news/tuley-nfl-dogs- ... ite-season

Also the oddsmakers will make adjustments so expect favorites to win more than their current 36%.

Dog lovers and gamblers should be quite wealthy at this point of the season.

Vince P
Women and cats will do as they please, and men and dogs should relax and get used to the idea.
Avatar: My cuzin Isaac Murphy - a jock I'm tying to emulate in character and winning percentage - almost 47% lifetime.
User avatar
Vince P
 
Posts: 4625
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2009 5:26 am
Location: Brooklyn, USA

Re: Take The Points

Postby Fredo » Sat Oct 20, 2012 7:20 am

Vince P wrote:
MikeFromGardena wrote:Last week the underdog was 12-2 against the spread in the NFL. Throw out the Niner game (from this week) if you want, it is still an impressive number.
The dog has covered 64% this year in the NFL.

It looks like there is more parity in the NFL than people realize.


As Dave Tuley in the DRF says, there will be a regression to the means as favorites bounce back a little, but probably not that much to make it even close to 50% for the season.

Here's a good article on it:

http://www.drf.com/news/tuley-nfl-dogs- ... ite-season

Also the oddsmakers will make adjustments so expect favorites to win more than their current 36%.

Dog lovers and gamblers should be quite wealthy at this point of the season.

Vince P


Tuley and that The math king guy are on some kind of tear aren't they ?
Fredo
 
Posts: 3085
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2009 1:44 pm

Re: Take The Points

Postby Vince P » Sat Oct 20, 2012 9:05 am

Fredo wrote:Tuley and that The math king guy are on some kind of tear aren't they ?


One of the problems is that Dave is "only" 10-7, which means he's hasn't been picking the right dogs all the time if that makes any sense, but he is doing quite well in his Vegas tournament.

I.e, Dogs are clicking at 64% while Dave is hitting "only" 59% with posted picks in the DRF, which is good, but he's missed 2-3 of them.

No big deal. In the long run as long as you pick over 52.7% winners, you'll be ahead of the game including the vig.

Me? I'm like at 17% which means I shouldn't be gambling at all.

Vince P
Women and cats will do as they please, and men and dogs should relax and get used to the idea.
Avatar: My cuzin Isaac Murphy - a jock I'm tying to emulate in character and winning percentage - almost 47% lifetime.
User avatar
Vince P
 
Posts: 4625
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2009 5:26 am
Location: Brooklyn, USA

Re: Take The Points

Postby Scorequick » Sat Oct 20, 2012 11:12 am

tuley is the bomb.

would like to read tuley on espn insider and get his opinion
but im not willing to pay the fee. oh well.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/ ... ing-trends
User avatar
Scorequick
 
Posts: 1625
Joined: Thu Sep 03, 2009 12:12 am
Location: Mr. Prospector

Re: Take The Points

Postby Pooch » Sun Oct 21, 2012 7:10 am

I guess my brain isn't working yet this morning ... how does a reverse teaser wager work ... http://www.delpark.com/race_sportsbetting.php
Pooch
 
Posts: 766
Joined: Wed Jul 15, 2009 7:36 am

Re: Take The Points

Postby Fredo » Sun Oct 21, 2012 10:06 am

Scorequick wrote:tuley is the bomb.

would like to read tuley on espn insider and get his opinion
but im not willing to pay the fee. oh well.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/ ... ing-trends


Tim just go to this site.It's Dave's and has some great info. Good luck.

http://forums.viewfromvegas.com/user/Di ... ?id=347893
Fredo
 
Posts: 3085
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2009 1:44 pm

Re: Take The Points

Postby Scorequick » Sun Oct 21, 2012 11:26 pm

thanks much Fredo.

i could use the help. brutal brutal week.
User avatar
Scorequick
 
Posts: 1625
Joined: Thu Sep 03, 2009 12:12 am
Location: Mr. Prospector

Re: Take The Points

Postby Crazykid » Mon Oct 22, 2012 6:45 am

Pooch wrote:I guess my brain isn't working yet this morning ... how does a reverse teaser wager work ... http://www.delpark.com/race_sportsbetting.php

you make a bet with vince, and he teases you with a quako who never shows up (reverse teaser)
User avatar
Crazykid
 
Posts: 4712
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 6:53 am

Next

Return to Digressions (off-topic)

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest