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Sat - SA, TAM, GP, OP

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Sat - SA, TAM, GP, OP

Postby Stefan » Fri Mar 08, 2013 12:44 pm

Let's keep rolling!

TAM
R8 Suncoast:
Close Hatches - If she's around 3-1 at post, I'll go with her, but if she's under 2-1, no bet on this race. This is just an action play for me. Something to get the juices flowing...

R9 Hillsborough:
What to do here? Old Tune figures to get an easy lead and probably won't stop, but Mystical Star ran a great race last out to almost nip Starformer when the latter just walked on the lead. I'll go with Mystical Star and hope Old Tune doesn't run the first mile in 1:44.

R10 TB Derby:
This is a toughie. I'm inclined to go against Verrazano just because he'll be 3/5 or something silly like that. He may be great, but I'll look elsewhere. I'm throwing out Honorable Dillon because I think the Hutcheson was a weak race. I can't separate Falling Sky and Dynamic Sky, but I think post position will be the killer for Falling Sky. So, that leaves me with Dynamic Sky or Purple Egg, and I really think Purple Egg has looked very good in his races. So, cross my fingers, hope 10-1 M/L is what I'll get and take Purple Egg.

GP
R10 GP Handicap
Here's hoping Fort and Fort both take a TON of money, because I love Discreet Dancer here. I want 4-1 or 5-1 on him, but will settle for 3-1 M/L.

SA
R7 San Felipe
This should be a great race to watch. To bet? Maybe not so much...Flashback should wipe these off the face of the map. He's going to get an easy lead and should just walk away with it. Goldencents seems to be the only one who might be able to go with him. But, he'll be 9/5 and Flashback will be 2/5. I'll take a left turn and play the "that's why they run the race" angle, and take Hear The Ghost and hope I can get 9/1 on him.

R8 China Doll
Aww...I wanted to take Judy in Disguise back here, but she's out. Will go for Flashy Ways and hope to get a decent price on her.

OP
R7 Honeybee
If Flashy Grey is close to her 7/5 M/L I'll take her. Even money or less, no bet

R9 Razoback
If Alternation is close to his 2-1 M/L I'll pound this one. If he's 6-5, I'll bet. If he's 4/5, no bet. How's that for being specific? :lol:

Good luck all!
Stefan
 
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Re: Sat - SA, TAM, GP, OP

Postby Stefan » Fri Mar 08, 2013 4:15 pm

Stefan wrote:
TAM
R10 TB Derby:
This is a toughie. I'm inclined to go against Verrazano just because he'll be 3/5 or something silly like that. He may be great, but I'll look elsewhere. I'm throwing out Honorable Dillon because I think the Hutcheson was a weak race. I can't separate Falling Sky and Dynamic Sky, but I think post position will be the killer for Falling Sky. So, that leaves me with Dynamic Sky or Purple Egg, and I really think Purple Egg has looked very good in his races. So, cross my fingers, hope 10-1 M/L is what I'll get and take Purple Egg.


Whoa whoa whoa!
"It’s also noteworthy that the Cibelli barn has done a statistical 180-degree turn since a veterinarian reportedly linked to the outfit was evicted from the grounds in early February. My loose count reads something like 10 for 25 at Tampa just before, and 3 for 25 since that date in question"
http://www.drf.com/news/countdown-crown-week-10-march-8-2013

Forget the Egg! I'll look to Dynamic Sky in this one. Can't back a horse that was probably juiced before and not now.

Stefan wrote:SA
R7 San Felipe
This should be a great race to watch. To bet? Maybe not so much...Flashback should wipe these off the face of the map. He's going to get an easy lead and should just walk away with it. Goldencents seems to be the only one who might be able to go with him. But, he'll be 9/5 and Flashback will be 2/5. I'll take a left turn and play the "that's why they run the race" angle, and take Hear The Ghost and hope I can get 9/1 on him.


Also, for those of you paying attention, I'm going to flip-flop on this one (I don't count the one above as a flip-flop :lol: ) and take Omega Star instead of Hear The Ghost. I'll give the Star the benefit of the doubt on his last out...

So, that means that everyone should now back up the truck on Hear The Ghost...
Stefan
 
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Re: Sat - SA, TAM, GP, OP

Postby Todko » Sat Mar 09, 2013 3:52 pm

Nice call on Hear The Ghost Stefan. Good looking horse. Should be able to run a long way.
Todko
 
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Re: Sat - SA, TAM, GP, OP

Postby Stefan » Mon Mar 11, 2013 10:53 am

Todko wrote:Nice call on Hear The Ghost Stefan. Good looking horse. Should be able to run a long way.


While I'd like to take credit for this...like a sucker I flip flopped on him :shock:

I was joking on this before, but man, everyone needs to bet on the horses I decide not to take...4 for 4 now with an ROI of $10.75 per $2.00.

TAM
R8 Suncoast: Close Hatches scratched

Stefan wrote:R9 Hillsborough: I'll go with Mystical Star and hope Old Tune doesn't run the first mile in 1:44.

Old Tune ran 1:14, 1:37 and didn't stop...

R10 TB Derby: Dynamic Sky didn't look that dynamic...and the Egg cracked early...

Stefan wrote:GP
R10 GP Handicap
Here's hoping Fort and Fort both take a TON of money, because I love Discreet Dancer here. I want 4-1 or 5-1 on him, but will settle for 3-1 M/L.

Good thing I hammered him here...made up for a lot of heartbreak from the rest of the day...+5.80

SA
R7 San Felipe - ARGH!!!! Me and my stupid wishy-washy ways! Hear the Ghost looked fabulous in the post parade too...

R8 China Doll - Flashy Ways didn't show up.

OP
R7 Honeybee - Flashy Grey was 2/5! 2/5!!!!! No bet

R9 Razoback - Meh...Alternation didn't run a lick...

Week: 6: 1-0-1
Win%: 16.7% (ROI: $0.97!!!!!!!) :oops:
ITM%: 33.3%

YTD: 48: 13-7-7
Win%: 27.1% (ROI: $2.40)
ITM%: 56.3%

Shoulda-Coulda-Woulda: 4: 4-0-0 :cry:
Win%: 100% (ROI: $10.75)
ITM%: 100%
Stefan
 
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