Santa Anita Handicap Day analysis

[Tvghrtvfan]

Feel free to write your picks or analysis of the Santa Anita Handicap Day action:

Race 1:
STORM FIGHTER comes off a 2nd on an off track in the most recent start and was only making the 2nd start of his lifetime. Going to be routing for the first time and I think the route won’t be a bother for this one.

8-2-1

Race 2:
WEDNESDAY set the pace last time out and got caught at the end by Sweet Red Cat who won a Starter Allowance a few weeks ago. So this makes her look good in here. Others could win too like the 2 James Cassidy horses and the Peter Eurton 2nd time starter could win, the first timer for Doug O’Neill has the pedigree to win on the turf as does Tim Yakteen’s first timer starter too.

6-4-9

Race 3:
VISIGODO comes of a maiden breaking victory in the most recent start for trainer Mike Puype. Faces winners for the 1st time in here. He has a good late kick and I predict he will do the same thing he like when he broke the maiden in here.

4-2-9

Race 4:
TIZMETYOU was 4th going 1 mile on the turf and has speed in here as she cuts back in distance for this race. Gonna be going 6F in here and I think the distance won’t be a problem for her in here.

2-3-8

Race 5:
CAUGHT NAPPING cuts back in distance for this race as he makes the 2013 debut in here and last time out he was 3rd at a mile on the turf at Del Mar in September. Mitchell has a good win percentage with horses coming off a long layoff as he hits at a good 19%.

PROUNCEMENT has won his last 2 races coming into this race and seems like a tough horse when he makes the move coming into the stretch. He will be dangerous when he makes his late kick.

HORIZON SKY makes the U.S. debut for trainer Jeff Mullins and was 6th in the most recent start at Dundalk on Polytrack. Has been chasing the leaders and has good pedigree out of a Duke of Marmalade.

Among others you may want to consider possibly, well this race is tough in here as the most recent maiden breaking winner ROSENGOLD could do it, the layoff contender in AMARISH could too and the other European invader TIGER DAY.

9-5-7

Race 6:
BEHOLDER was 2nd in her 2013 debut in the G2 Santa Ynez last time out and was last year’s 2 year old filly champion and Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies winner too. I think she needed her last effort and I think she’ll be ready to run a big one if she gets loose on the lead.

FIFTYSHADESOFHAY will be the main threat to BEHOLDER in here. She comes off a win in the G3 Santa Ysabel on the off track in her most recent start. She will be a tough customer in here if the big favorite can’t get it done.

SCARLET STRIKE was 3rd on the off track in the G3 Santa Ysabel last time out. I don’t think she didn’t like the off track so am gonna put a line on that one and stick to her races she’s been running lately. She’s been in the top 3 in all her lifetime starts.

RENEE’S TITAN beat BEHOLDER in the G2 Santa Ynez last time out. She came from behind to beat her that day. I don’t think 2 turns wont be a problem for her as she was a close 2nd in the Sharp Cat 3 races back at Hollywood Park.

5-2-7

Race 7:
INSIDENDOUTSIDE comes off a 4th in the most recent start faced winners for the first time that day. I think will do better in here and the pedigree is bred for 1M as his sire was Artie Schiller a G1 winner. 4 or 5 of these could win in here as I think he will be tough in here.

8-2-6

Race 8:
This such a wide open race to kick off the late pick 4 that 5 or 6 of these could win in here. I like ZACKN’MAT in here who comes off a 5th in the most recent start for Jeff Mullins. He needed the last race as he was coming off a near year layoff. He could be ready to go 2nd time off a long layoff.

8-9-7

Race 9:
SUGGESTIVE BOY comes off his nice win in the G2 Arcadia H. last time out and was only making his 2013 debut as he was a 7th in the G1 BC Mile 2 races back. SB could certainly have a repeat effort of his last race.

WILKINSON was 2nd to SB in the G2 Arcadia H. last time out and was known earlier last year as the upset winner of the G2 American H. at Hollywood Park 3 races back. I believe that his last effort proved that he’s not a fluke at all so he very well has a shot to win this race.

Silentio was the winner of the G2 Sir Beaufort 2 races back on opening day at SA as he was a 3rd in the most recent start to SB. I think he will be a dark horse in here and a good one. AKKADIAN was 4th in the Arcadia H. last time out, I liked his effort 2 races back and I think this one always tries hard and look out for that one.

3-7-1

Race 10:
We have 2 defending champions of this race like the 2011 winner GAME ON DUDE and the 2012 last year’s winner RON THE GREEK in here. From the 2 I am going to take GOD in here as he won his 2013 debut very well in the G2 San Antonio and has had high Beyers too coming into this race in his last 2 starts. He will be tough in here as he looks to win this one again.

STEPHANOATSEE comes off a flying 2nd to GUILT TRIP in the G2 Strub last time out as I think he’s a need for 1 ¼ type of contender for Graham Motion. Gets a patient rider in Julien Leparoux aboard as I actually think if there’s one horse that’s gonna beat GOD I think he’s gonna be it.

RON THE GREEK is the defending champion in here as he won his 2013 debut in the Sunshine Millions Classic for trainer Bill Mott on an off track. He has a liking to this track and got a high Beyer of 115 last time out. Seemed to have been going backwards after his G1 Stephen Foster win last year but with his Sunshine Millions win it seems his confidence level is back.

GUILT TRIP the G2 Strub winner last time out has always been known as a closer that is go good. He closed very well to win his last start and was close 2 races back in the G2 San Fernando to finish 3rd in that one. This Baffert horse has a shot to be a mild-upset his stablemate.

CALLED TO SERVE has won his last 2 starts including his race 2 races back in the G3 Discovery H. at Aqueduct and won the Broad Rush at Laurel last time out faced olders that day for the 1st time. He’s produced high Beyers for this race of 106 and 104. Gets a new jockey in Gary Stevens as he knows how to win a SA Handicap before.

9-8-1

Race 11:
Tough way to finish the day in this last race. Any of these runners have a shot as I think 6 or 7 of these could win it. Am gonna go with the first time starter on top for trainer Steve Asmussen named after ESPN sportscaster Joe Tessitore who hosted numerous horse racing telecasts for ESPN named JOE TESS in here. He’s had nice works for the debut as Asmussen doesn’t really fire up fast works for their last one. His pedigree is out of a Macho Uno and a good one too. I think he’s gonna be tough and close late IMO.

I think both the Baffert horses first time debuts have a shot too as does the Pete Miller first timer too, so does the Tim Yakteen trainee of Storm Power who faced Golden Cents in the debut. The experience horses that Mulhall and Sadler even you could make a case for too.

11-8-5

Best Bet: Race 3: 4. Visgodo (3-1)

What do you think of my rundown of the races?

[Pathagan]

Good write-up, Ernie. I'm on the same horse as you in Race 8. In the last race, I'm hammering the 6/1 Peter Miller firster.

[Kermit]

Nice, Ernie - we agree on Stephanoatsee.

[Proro35]

I wouldnt take too short of a price on Stephanoatsee. He wasnt really facing much last year on the east coast. Id need atleast 50-1 to get involved against these kind of horses.

With that being said Im gonna lose a few dollars on HandsomeMike. If he doesnt get sent to a clear lead by Mario then why even enter him in the race. Hopefully Mike Smith is content too sit 2nd for the majority of the race and not get in a duel with HandsomMike. Gonna play alittle WPS and tri 1,9/1,4,6,9,10/2. And exacta 1,4,9/2.

[Proro35]

Wow, Mario should have to give his mount fee back. What a bum. What was the plan to sit 2nd and pass GOD in the stretch? He handed him the race.

[Pathagan]

Good write-up, Ernie. I'm on the same horse as you in Race 8. In the last race, I'm hammering the 6/1 Peter Miller firster.

$18.20 winner. Hard to believe we got 8/1 on Gomez/Miller