sat stakes (2-23) - SA, FG, GP

[Stefan]

I think I spread myself too thin last week and paid the price (so I tell myself...).

I'm going to stick to only a few this week and hope for the best.

SA
San Carlos - I've really come to like Comma to the Top over the years. He's always dangerous on an easy lead, which he'll hopefully get here. Let's see if he'll be able to take them all the way.

FG
Mineshaft - I like Mark Valeski here. He ran great last out, but probably was a little short. I have to think he's going to be rolling here.

Risen Star - I am talking myself into taking Oxbow here. He's most likely going to get a pretty easy lead and we've seen what he can do with that. On top of that, he'll probably be 6-1 or 7-1 because of all the other firepower in the race. I'm just not 100% sold on him.
I also like Palace Malice here so I smell a potential flip-flop coming, but for now, let's go with Oxbow and hope for a speed bias.

GP
Davona Dale - Here's my screaming longshot of the weekend. Private Ensign. I LOVED her last race and she's kept it up in her workouts. Plus, Dreaming will be such a short price, I can't play her. I'm looking to get at least 6-1 on Private Ensign and hoping for a lot more.

Fountain of Youth - I think there's going to be a huge speed duel here. I think it'll compromise Violence's chances a little as he might have to be used to keep up. Plus, I don't want any part of the 7/5 or whatever low price he's going to be. I would go for Falling Sky, as I think he's a decent horse, but that wide post is going to kill his chances. So, that leaves me with either Orb, Speak Logistics, or *gulp* He's Had Enough. I'm not sold that Speak Logistics can win from off the lead, but he looked like a winner in the Sam Davis before he got the door slammed on him. And, I'm sorry Forumites, but I'm not sold on He's Had Enough, so I'll be playing Orb (and dodging all the bricks that will be thrown my way with that choice).

Good luck all!

[Kermit]

Violence doesn't need the lead. Just sayin'.

[Stefan]

Violence doesn't need the lead. Just sayin'.

No, I don't think he does either. I'm hoping that he'll be used to keep up with the leaders and that'll take some of the starch out of him down the lane.

But, if you like Violence, go way back to his Aug 18th maiden race. You'll notice there's a certain other horse that spotted him 20 lengths at the start, but would have crushed him if the race was an extra furlong....Orb.

[Kermit]

Violence doesn't need the lead. Just sayin'.

No, I don't think he does either. I'm hoping that he'll be used to keep up with the leaders and that'll take some of the starch out of him down the lane.

But, if you like Violence, go way back to his Aug 18th maiden race. You'll notice there's a certain other horse that spotted him 20 lengths at the start, but would have crushed him if the race was an extra furlong....Orb.

A matter of class, I think. Believe me - I like horses at this time of the year who have run at a mile and an eighth. I have some pre-money on Overanalyze. It took Orb a couple of races to figure it all out, he moves way up Saturday. I do respect Shug and Rosario.

[Stefan]

SA
San Carlos -(Comma to the Top)
I didn't think Mike Smith was going to run Justin Philip into the ground like that. Too bad, as I had Comma and Sahara boxed in the exacta. Missed it by that much.

FG
Mineshaft -(Mark Valeski)
Yes!

Risen Star -(Oxbow)
Didn't get the lead, tore my ticket before they hit the backstretch. I really don't think any of the FG 3-year-olds are going to do anything in the Derby this year. They're all pretty sad.


GP
Davona Dale -(Private Ensign)
I'm still trying to figure out how you can have a 5 horse field with one 4/5 shot and 2 2-1 shots...

Fountain of Youth - (Orb)
ORB!!!!!
Too bad about Violence though.
But, ORB!!!!!!!!!!

Week: 5: 2-0-2 (win% 40%, ROI: $3.32)

YTD: 35: 9-6-5
Win%: 25.7% (ROI:$2.17)
ITM%: 57.1%