Tapeta Feature Free Tip

[Vince P]

Historically, this is the the Premier Darby prep in the country as more winners have come out of this race than any other 3yo prep race in the country to go on and win the feature race at Louisville the First Saturday in May.

Now carefully peruse the PeePees of Nina's Dragon.

12-1ml, which is the optimum ml odds one could ever wish to see.

Sneaky good trainer (Lloyd Mason) who's been around the game and knows what he's doing with a decent horse. Clever Frenchie aboard.

Absolutely love his pattern on the minor stretchout to 1.125 miles - a distance he should cherish. Check out how he always comes again in the last 77 yards - something to really consider while many of these horses will be trying a distance they've never had to run before.

True, he lost to Rush In but that race was run in an awfully slow time and he head no chance considering the 26 first quarter. He should get a more reasonable pace today and I see him finishing best when the horses bunch up at the top of the stretch and most will probably be out of breath.

The bottom line is value, value and more value, and with a couple of shippers with southern Cal jocks, I expect the value to be more than acceptable for several win wagers.

If he happens to lose, Tweet me and I'll reimburse youz any gambling losses, plus pay any expenses if you had to travel to wager.

Good Luck,

Vince P

[Rosethorn2]

GL, pisan'...

[Pathagan]

That's the same hoss my pen landed on, Vince. Hoping we get better than the 12/1 price.

Here are a few I like today

Race 2: #6 Wild Ruler (6/1). 2nd-out Moger, ran a decent 4th at boxcars three weeks ago in a fast-run MSW, doesn't face much. Think we'll get all of that 6/1 and more at the window.

Race 6: The #3 Native Thunder (6/1) gets back to his preferred surface. Ridden horribly in his last Tapeta start two months ago (to the day). 5 works since his last start and is the best finisher in the race.

Race 7: #6 John Bully's Bob (10/1) has moved up a ton since Steve Sherman took over the training duties. 2-for-2 since the barn change and steps up into this n1x field (full of horses that have had a tough time breaking thru at the level). Sherman is RED-HOT lately and we get him here at a price.

[Pathagan]

Nina's Dragon ran very well for us, Vincenzo......
BTW - terrific morning line on the winner there.

[Softs Son]

[quote="Pathagan"]BTW - terrific morning line on the winner there.

Thanks Pat! That's kinda what happens when the horse is given out on an LA radio show by one handicapper and also given out as a pretty strong pick by another handicapper on a HRTV handicapping show. The horse went off at 9-1 and I had him at 20....I missed it by 5 points. I've done worse. I know from past experiences that when horses are given out on radio shows or HRTV handicapping shows....it affects the odds...that's just the way it is. I dont know that when I do the line...the horse had consistently lower beyers than any horse in the race, had never run on synthetic, and had only a maiden win to his credit. I didnt like the horse. But I guess I missed it...so it goes. For the record, I liked NIna's Dragon going in as well....I thought he ran a great race being only his second route and 4th start. He is a nice horse. Nice job on your picks today.

[Pathagan]

BTW - terrific morning line on the winner there.

Thanks Pat! That's kinda what happens when the horse is given out on an LA radio show by one handicapper and also given out as a pretty strong pick by another handicapper on a HRTV handicapping show. The horse went off at 9-1 and I had him at 20....I missed it by 5 points. I've done worse. I know from past experiences that when horses are given out on radio shows or HRTV handicapping shows....it affects the odds...that's just the way it is. I dont know that when I do the line...the horse had consistently lower beyers than any horse in the race, had never run on synthetic, and had only a maiden win to his credit. I didnt like the horse. But I guess I missed it...so it goes. For the record, I liked NIna's Dragon going in as well....I thought he ran a great race being only his second route and 4th start. He is a nice horse. Nice job on your picks today.

The fact that 2 handicappers gave out Dice Flavor affected the odds early (7/2 at first click), but that wasn't the reason why he went off at 9/1. He was working brilliantly down south for this engagement, is bred for the synthetic (his Daddy threw last year's ECR Derby winner) and the dam is of top quality (earlier in the day, her son Swift Warrior took down a Grade 3 event at Tampa).

Thanks for your kudos on my picks today. It certainly means a lot.

[MikeFromGardena]

You guys put on a better show than Steven A. vs. Bayless on First Take. Comes on at a better time, too.

[Softs Son]

In hindsight I know I coulda done things differently...I have ignored your comments before but I wasnt gonna ignore the one last night, sorry. I screwed up on one horse in that race (nailed the top 3 choices) and it was the horse that happened to win. Oh well....like I said I have done worse than being 5 points off on the winner. I actually almost made the horse 15-1 and manando 2-1 or wildcat moon 8-1. But I didnt and once again so it goes....

[Vince P]

In hindsight I know I coulda done things differently...I have ignored your comments before but I wasnt gonna ignore the one last night, sorry. I screwed up on one horse in that race (nailed the top 3 choices) and it was the horse that happened to win. Oh well....like I said I have done worse than being 5 points off on the winner. I actually almost made the horse 15-1 and manando 2-1 or wildcat moon 8-1. But I didnt and once again so it goes....

Soft,

Are you making the line on the way you think the public will bet or on your own handicapping?

Personally, I think it should be made the way you think the public will wager.

For example, if I made the line on my own handicapping I would have had Nina's Dragon at 9/2ish and Dice Flavor around 8-1 to 10-1.

But if I was doing it as if the public was wagering (which is the way it should be) I probably would have been very close to your morning line with Dragon at 12-1 and Dice at 12 or 15-1.

It's a tough job either way.

I can't tell you how many times my personal line was way off based on the way my nags ran........too many times, lol.

Vince P

[Kermit]

But... you have to know what odds YOU think the horse has to win, to determine value. No?