Gulfstream Park Donn Handicap Day analysis

[Tvghrtvfan]

Feel free to write your picks or analysis of the Gulfstream Park Donn Handicap Day action:

Race 1:

HAMPSTEAD HEATH has run on the Woodbine polytrack in the last 2 starts and in the last one might’ve moved too soon in that most recent start. The last start on turf 3 races back he won that race at Woodbine as he broke the maiden that day.

4-2-6

Race 2:

GINNY’S GREY was a close 3rd in the most recent start for $50,000 and in today for the same tag. I think the extra distance will help this one out and she could be tough as she is one of the few with experience in here.

5-6-2

Race 3:

PARASOL was 8th on the turf in the most recent start going 1 1/16. Cuts back in distance for today’s race and takes a class drop from $30,000 to $10,000 today. Gets a key jockey switch to Luis Saez for this race.

6-7-3

Race 4:

PRIMO won the most recent start at the Fair Grounds for $25,000 and is in for the same tag today. Could be tough alone as there could be others that could join him out there for the lead and does have the highest Beyer in the field of 87.

3-5-10

Race 5:

LITTLE DISTORTED might’ve needed the last race in the most recent start finishing 3rd in the Spectacular Bid to Merit Man last time out as he was facing winners for the first time. He looked great breaking the maiden in the debut and got a big Beyer of 101 that day. Gets a new jockey in Joel Rosario who is very good with horses he’s riding for the first time.

9-4-2

Race 6:

You can make a good case in here for like 5-6 of these horses in here. All of them have had starts already in their lifetime starts. Am gonna go with the 2nd time starter in here TAPULOUS who was 4th in the debut last time out and will be going 2 turns for the first time in here. It is bred to get long as this one is out of Tapit. WABBAJACK is another one in here that’s tough as well and 3rd time could be the charm for this on in here. Has the pedigree to put on a late kick at the end. DYKER BEACH is going 2 turns for the first time in here and has the pedigree and ran a close 2nd in the most recent start as he was beaten by his stablemate that day.

3-5-2

Race 7:

Another tough race that you can make a good case for 7-8 of these in here. JACK MILTON comes off a win in the debut in the most recent start in the debut and will be facing winners today for the first time in here. Will be the deserving favorite but there’s others in here too that you can make a good case for like the PLAY IT LOUD who looked great in the debut winning by 4 lengths and today like JM is facing winners today for the first time. PRIVATE MOUNTAIN won a restricted stakes up at Woodbine in the last start breaking the maiden and that was 1 1/16 as it goes for the same distance trying the turf for the first time.

5-4-2

Race 8:

Looks like a 2 horse race between POINT OF ENTRY and 2011 KY Derby champion ANIMAL KINGDOM. Point of Entry comes off a close 2nd to Little Mike in the Breeders Cup Turf in the last start and had a great 2012 year before the BC with wins in 3 straight G1’s in the Man O’ War, Sword Dancer, and Joe Hirsh Turf Classic Inv. in those races that he was finalist for the Eclipse Awards for Outstanding Turf Horse. I think IMO is going to be tough but is 1 1/8 a little too short for him?

ANIMAL KINGDOM comes off a fasting closing 2nd in the G1 BC Mile to Wise Dan in the most recent start as he was coming off a layoff that day. He has a liking to the GP Turf course as he won the 2012 debut over the surface. He was the 2011 KY Derby Champion and 3-year-old Champion as well and is looking for his first stakes win since the Derby.

If you’re looking for someone else if you don’t like AK or POE then UNBRIDLED COMMNAD is worth a look in here. He won the G1 Hollywood Derby in the most recent start and before that won a couple stakes in NY which were the G3 Saranac at Saratoga and the Mohawk Stakes at Belmont Park. Is sitting on a 5 race winning streak in here and 15-1 on the morning line is outrageous IMO. I can see this one be at around 8 to 10-1 maybe even lower but I just don’t see him being 15-1 since he’s the main threat to POE or AK.

2-6-4

Race 9:

Almost all of them got a shot in here to win this race. We got some horses coming out of the Sunshine Millions Sprint and one from the SM Classic too. Am gonna go with a price horse in here that was the pacesetter in the Hal’s Hope Stakes and is cutting back in distance today and that is GOOD MORNING DIVA. Was 5th in the most recent start and cutback in distance from 1M to 7F will help him become a better shot to win in here though this race is still tough. TRAVELIN MAN hasn’t been seen since his 2nd place finish in the Teddy Drone at Monmouth in the most recent start and hasn’t been seen since then as this one has been on the shelf now for more than 6 months now. May need the race but is training well for it though. BAHAMIAN SQUALL was a close 2nd in the Sunshine Millions Sprint in the most recent start and 2 races back won a State bred stakes at Gulfstream in the beginning of the meet.

SWAGGER JACK draws the unlucky rail in here but looked great winning the most recent start and does cutback in distance from 1M to 7F. CLOSE IT OUT was 4th in the Sunshine Millions Sprint last time out and did win a State bred stakes at Calder 3 races back. FORT LOUNDON was 3rd in the Sunshine Millions Classic to Ron The Greek in the last start and was a G3 winner last year as the cutback in distance should help this one’s chances in here since he’s more of a sprinter. BIG GRANDPA was a winner in the most recent start and goes up in class in here as this one got a 105 Beyer in here and it’s the highest in here too.

3-2-6

Race 10:

Another race where almost all of them got a shot in here to win this race. Am gonna put on top in here HARD NOT TO LIKE. She comes off a win in the G3 Marshua’s River in the last start as it making the first start off an 8-month layoff. The horse that was 2nd to her in the most recent start was CHANNEL LADY who was 2nd in there and might have moved too soon in that one and maybe with a more patient move might be tough. ABACO is a new shooter trying stakes for the first time in here and was a winner in the most recent start over the Gulfstream turf course and has won the last 3 starts as of late. The 3rd place finisher out of the G3 Marshua’s River LEADING ASTRAY is come from behinder but just didn’t seem to have that late kick as she showed when she won the G3 Pucker Up at Arlington.

INGLORIOUS has been winless since her win the Queen’s Plate in the last 6 starts. Went 0 or 4 last year and will be looking break the slump as the angle of Rosario riding horses for the first time often works. KYA ONE was the winner of the G3 My Charmer in the most recent start at Calder as she makes the 2013 debut today. ROMACACA was 3rd in the Sunshine Millions FM Turf in the most recent start and 2 races back won the South Beach at the beginning of the meet as she last year was a G3 winner at Arlington Park in the Modesty.


4-5-8

Race 11:

This is a competitive G1 race that 6-7 of these horses got a shot in here. I like a longshot in here though am not too sure if you will get 10-1 or not but I like POOL PLAY in here. He comes off a flying 2nd in the G3 Hal’s Hope in the most recent start and only made the first since running a disappointing 8th in the G1 BC Classic. He was best known for winning the G1 Stephen Foster in 2011 and last year won the G2 Hawthorne Gold Cup. I think with the speed in here and maybe it could set up perfect with his late kick in here. CSABA was the winner of the G3 Hal’s Hope in the most recent start. I loved the ride Luis Saez put in on that one last time out as this one is sitting on a 4 race-winning streak including another G3 at Calder. He will be tough again in here and must use on your bets. TAKE CHARGE INDY was the winner of the 2012 Florida Derby at Gulfstream last year lone speed. Since then, he was 19th in the KY Derby, 3rd in the G3 Fayette first start off a long layoff and was a close 2nd in the G1 Clark H. 2nd time off that long layoff. He has speed in here but may have some company out there for the front as the CA shipper has blazing speed too. Back at GP, he will be very tough and maybe 3rd time is the charm.

ULTIMATE EAGLE the CA shipper in here has dangerous speed in here and is often tough pass by. He proved his toughness in his heartbreaking 2nd in the G2 San Pasqual in the most recent start at Santa Anita. Last year, he won the G2 Strub Stakes and was best known as a 3 year old won the G1 Hollywood Derby over the turf course at Hollywood Park there. Had a tough speed duel in the Big Cap last year and may have the same here too. BURBON COURAGE was best known last year for winning the G2 Super Derby that was 3 races back. He was 2nd 2 races back in the G2 Indiana Derby and was a 3rd in the G1 Clark H. last time out. FLAT OUT seems to only be a Belmont specialist only as his major wins have come over the Belmont grounds who has repeated in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup (2011 and 2012) and in the most recent start was a 3rd in the G1 BC Classic. In his lone GP start on the dirt was a loss in this race last year. GRAYDAR will be making the 4-year-old debut today at loves the GP dirt here. Could show speed in here as it’s making the stakes debut in a tough G1 spot.

9-7-8

Race 12:

HARRYTHENAVIGATOR was 2nd in the debut at Laurel in the most recent start for trainer Michael Trombetta and he’s 30% with 2nd time starters in here. Has the turf pedigree out of a G1 winner Henrythenavigator in Europe. You know 7-8 of these horses could break the maiden in here too but will be shooting for a price to wrap up today’s action at GP that is competitive.

9-6-4

Best Bet: Race 3: 6. Parasol (8-5)

What do you think of my rundown of the races?

[Proro35]

1st of all nice write up, alittle chalky for my taste but best of luck..

In the GP Turf you are right how is Unbridled Command 15-1? He is clearly the 3rd likliest winner. How he is 15-1 to the # 3 and #5 who are 4-1 I will never know. Who makes the ML at GP?

Only strong opinions I had were in race 4 and 6.

In the 4th Im going with #10 Blazen, big rider change and should sit a trip with quite a bit of pace signed on. Gonna try and beat the 2 ML favorites Mr Palmer who sat a dream trip last race while winning and the Fairgrounds shipper Primo, the majority of the runners coming out of the race he won have regressed in there next start. Could also be a pace casualty.

Betting 10 to win and exacta box 7,10,12. The 12 Runyon Humor also gets a positive rider change to Paco Lopez. Certainly didnt get any favors with the post draw of 12 which is what he had last time as well.

Then in the 6th race I dont know how Freedom Child is anywhere near the 8-1ML. Ran 2nd to a next out winner in Orb and finished infront of Revolutionary who granted had a troubled trip that race but is a colt with a ton of ability. He has come back to win his next 2 starts. I like that he's been working once a week since the begining of January.

Also like #1 Saint Viguer. Ran well last race at AQU in November, puts b l i n kers on and should be the one sitting the trip. So Im leaning heavy on the Ny shippers here as I feel they have faced better and I didnt really like the ones that have run at GP. The Pletcher runner was essentially in an all out drive the entire race in his 1st race and had absolutely nothing. OTB BOB was just dreadful last out at odds on. Dyker Beach could be ok but I thought last time was the time for him when he was beaten a 1/2 length in what has proved to be an unproductive race.

I will be betting the 9 to win and an exacta box 1,7,9 as long as the probables are ok. Maybe alittle 1,9/5.


Good Luck.