Sat stakes (Feb 2)

[Stefan]

Well, this weekend is shaping up to be kind of a dud for me...I'm only seeing short priced favorites. And, there's a lot of races on Saturday! This has the stench of a long day...

Let's hope my wallet isn't empty by Monday!

Santa Anita
R4 RB Lewis: This should really be a no-bet race for me. Flashback looks like the real deal, but he'll be 2/5. I liked Den's Legacy last out, and I figure he'll be setting the pace in this one, so maybe he can put them all to sleep and trot home! Hopefully, I can get 3-1 on him.

R8 Strub: Guilt Trip would have beaten Fed Biz if the San Fernando were 10 yards longer, and Fed Biz is carrying 5 lbs more this time around. Let's see if we can get Guilt Trip at a price! Is 5-1 too much to ask for?

R9 Arcadia: I'm a real sucker for fast horses stepping up in class. It's a weakness that has cost me a ton of money too, frankly. But, you have to do what you have to do. Klisz looked awesome in his last out. Let's hope I can get a really good price this time around on the jump in class.

Gulfstream
R10 Hutcheson: I like the look of Merit Man here. Tepid favorite on the ML, let's hope he stays at 3-1 or higher.

Tampa Bay
R7 Oaks: Another tepid favorite here in Tapicat. I will almost always go for the coning speed. 3-1 ML.

R9 Endeavour: I think (hope?) Dealbata needs a race. I'll go for Hooh Why here. She's a gamer! 5-1 ML

R11 SF Davis: If Falling Sky does go here, I'll take him. Otherwise, I'll stick with Dynamic Sky, at a short price most likely, who just cruised last out.

Aqueduct
R8 Toboggan: Mine over Matter. Too many speedsters in this one, let's see if he can pick up the pieces of a pace meltdown.

[Stefan]

Since I know all of you are living and dying by my picks , I had some changes after watching a passel of replays...

R9 Arcadia: I'm a real sucker for fast horses stepping up in class. It's a weakness that has cost me a ton of money too, frankly. But, you have to do what you have to do. Klisz looked awesome in his last out. Let's hope I can get a really good price this time around on the jump in class.

Still like Klisz on top, but wanted to add that I'm probably playing him over Chosen Miracle, Suggestive Boy, and Silentio in the Exa and Tri.

R10 Hutcheson: I like the look of Merit Man here. Tepid favorite on the ML, let's hope he stays at 3-1 or higher.

Meh...don't like him so much any more, especially if he's going off as the fave. Will go with Forty Tales instead.

R11 SF Davis: If Falling Sky does go here, I'll take him. Otherwise, I'll stick with Dynamic Sky, at a short price most likely, who just cruised last out.

I think Falling Sky is going here, but I've watched that last Dynamic Sky replay about 100 times and I can't believe he won so easily with what happened to him. He's going to crush these here, so I have to go with him instead.

Aqueduct
R9 Withers: Also, I had to chime in here with my longshot of the day. I think Revolutionary wins it if he runs at all, but will take Smooth Bert at a huge price just in case he doesn't.

Good luck all!

[MikeFromGardena]

R8 Strub: Guilt Trip would have beaten Fed Biz if the San Fernando were 10 yards longer, and Fed Biz is carrying 5 lbs more this time around. Let's see if we can get Guilt Trip at a price! Is 5-1 too much to ask for?

I'm with you all the way on Guilt Trip.
Is 5-1 too much to ask for? Probably. The morning line is 5/2 but let's see what happens.
Nice write-up.

[Proro35]

If Smooth Bert wins the Withers you should get atleast 140 dollars per every 2 wagered. Revolutionary should demolish this field and should be the most impressive of the 3 year old derby hopefuls running this weekend.

[Kermit]

If Smooth Bert wins the Withers you should get atleast 140 dollars per every 2 wagered. Revolutionary should demolish this field and should be the most impressive of the 3 year old derby hopefuls running this weekend.

I'll throw another shot into the Withers pickin' - # 4 Amerigo Vespucci, 15-1. 3rd in the Jerome at 40-1, gets bliNkers for this one, bullet works.
Plus I like the name.

[Kermit]

If Smooth Bert wins the Withers you should get atleast 140 dollars per every 2 wagered. Revolutionary should demolish this field and should be the most impressive of the 3 year old derby hopefuls running this weekend.

I'll throw another shot into the Withers pickin' - # 4 Amerigo Vespucci, 15-1. 3rd in the Jerome at 40-1, gets bliNkers for this one, bullet works.
Plus I like the name.

4th.

[Stefan]

R11 SF Davis: If Falling Sky does go here, I'll take him. Otherwise, I'll stick with Dynamic Sky, at a short price most likely, who just cruised last out.

I think Falling Sky is going here, but I've watched that last Dynamic Sky replay about 100 times and I can't believe he won so easily with what happened to him. He's going to crush these here, so I have to go with him instead.

#$#@%(#*%&(@*#%&(#*%&@(%*&#@(%*#&@%##@!&#^!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Week: 8: 2-3-0
YTD: 17: 5-4-1
ROI: $2.22
Win: 29.4%
ITM: 58.8%

[Proro35]

Pretty safe to say Revolutionary was the most impressive winner of the derby prep races this past weekend. Had a careers worth of trouble in 1 race and still won.

[Fredo]

Last horse I would ever take in the Derby is him. He finds trouble.

[Kermit]

A couple of days ago even the East Coasters were saying what a crap meet Aqueduct was. What am I to believe?

I liked that race Sunday where two (2) 50-1's got 1st and 2nd. Nice payouts (not that I had any of it!)