Del Mar Online Racing Community
Chat about horses, racing, and the industry.
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Was watching HRTV on Wed, race came up a 12/1 ML horse was 3/1 in early betting with C Nak aboard. OK, sometimes owners & friends bet their horse early, might not mean anything. This one had one previous start, almost a year ago, ran last. Hmmm. Owned by Zayat stable, who is under investigation for being chummy with bookmakers. Double hmmm. Sure looks a bit like smart money now. Alas, considered a bet without even seeing a form, but passed. Horse won for fun at final odds of 4/1. Any of you make bets purely on board action like this? Or do you believe the only smart money is late money.
Now with some owners we know early money means very little. Prime example that guy Lindarkis or something like that who has horses with M. Conlon. He often bets his runners pretty heavy, so heavy in fact he sometimes creates a situation where it is an automatic bet against.
So, in your opinion, how often is early money a true sign of a horse ready to run big?
Also on Wed, from some track a 20/1 shot finished on top of a 99/1 shot, $1 exacta was only $973. That's really quite an underlay. Numbers were 1 & 10. Maybe people were betting their favorite freeway?
On big race days, I'll look at the board early in the betting. If there is heavy money on someone, with the sizes of those pools, generally its more than just one guy firing. Its an element I look at, but I don't bet purely on that. Just add it to my tool box.
Hollendorfer Todaro owned, Hollendorfer trained, Russell Baze rides always bet off the board early at Golden Gate Fields. Usually stays bet down
all the way to post time. Usually a class dropper with superior figs.
Not that I'd ever bet anything sight unseen, but I will pay special attention to first-time starters who open well under their morning line.
Liviakis is a bet-against every time. What's really interesting is watching the exacta probables in his races. Sometimes he hammers the exactas, sometimes he doesn't. Never figured out any correlation to his winners, but it's interesting nonetheless.
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Just me opinion, more of a guess than anything else when it comes to early money showing up on the board.....
I think the logic is as old as dirt tracks, but therein lies the problem, the game has changed significantly.
In the old days when there was no simulcasting, (some here probably don't even know what that means )and betting was done at the live racing venue only before the internet was invented, one could pretty much surmise that the barn help was betting early in the backstretch kitchen during a late breakfast. Some barns and trainers have even made reputations of being a "betting stable".
But logic says that you can throw those ideas out today, who knows where the money comes from now? With the east coast having a 3 hour head start on our days, it could be some Wall St dude betting on his lunch hour, or even somebody laying on the beach in Antigua and funneling the money through Lewiston Maine before he takes his afternoon nap.
All that said, it's still fun to read about the major scores the barn help makes on their favorites, one being Winning Colors in the Derby, a life changing score for some, congrats!
One final thought......would you change your bet because Mel Stute was in line in front of you and you overheard him betting a few benjamins on his horse
And remember...Things work out best when you make the best of the way things work out.
And they're usually extremely underlaid - a sure way to the blood bank for gamblers.
Women and cats will do as they please, and men and dogs should relax and get used to the idea.
Avatar: My cuzin Isaac Murphy - a jock I'm tying to emulate in character and winning percentage - almost 47% lifetime.
7 posts • Page 1 of 1
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