Del Mar Online Racing Community
Chat about horses, racing, and the industry.
8 posts • Page 1 of 1
So, from a purely ROI point of view (ignoring any emotional aspects of betting against) would it be wiser to jump on Z to show, or play something like Pretty Unusual & Striking Dancer & Gripshom Castle to show. If none scratch, it doesn't seem like a 9 horse field is the best place to make a big show bet, especially with a seeming lack of pace in the race. But if you play the next best horses, you won't hit that $100 show ticket if she does run out. Don't think I have the stomach to go either way. Any of you contemplating a dive into the show pool one way or the other?
I remember all the talk before the running of the 2008 Zenyatta Stakes. Hysterical Lady was going to be long gone and Z would never quicken fast enough to catch her. I don't worry about the small stuff like that with this superstar. She has adapted to every situation with flying colors
I'm going to take the free bingo square. I'm not even worried about the Breeders Cup jinx that has plagued countless others over the years.
This use to be one of my best methods pf play. That is beating a heavy Fav coming off a layoff. I admit that I havent been as spot on about making the "Beat the Heavy Fav Coming off a Layoff" as I use to be, but its still a viable play especially in the DD or P3 wagers.
For example this past Saturday @ Santa Anita when Blind Luck runs 3rd @ odds of $1-2 even though she wasnt coming off a layoff, the DD & P3 payoffs came back really Nice. I mentioned Blind Luck because she was overdue for a loss especially looking at her last race as she barely got up to Win at low odds, meaning sending her off at $1-2 this past Saturday was not based on her current form.
Now about "Z" & Rachel this coming weekend, modest plays in the P3 or DD can sometimes net a nice return, So I will devote $25-$30 playing agaisnt thenm in the DD & P3. I'm sure one of them will Win maybe both, but if they run 2nd or 3rd, then I'll have a shot at a nice return.
Right. Handicapping is about picking the winner, not surmising that a favorite might lose. After all, most favorites lose.. We all know that.
I used to know a guy named Danny at Santa Anita.. He was a good-natured loud mouth, always yelling at the jocks in the post parade. In fact, the jockeys (McCarron and others) tried to get him banned. They didn't get their wish. Danny agreed to tone it down and not yell out that they stiffed the horses he bet. Danny loved speed.. and if he figured the horse should be on the front end and the rider didn't get him there, he felt the rider wasn't doing his best or was purposely trying to lose.. After the race, in the post parade for the next.. Danny would accost the jockeys directly for their poor rides.. Anyway, Danny would rail against any heavy favorite.. especially if the horse came from off the pace. He would yell and tell everybody on the apron the horse was a stiff.. all the while smacking his form against his pant leg.. Whack, whack.. and more laughter.. After the races, he would laugh when the horse would lose.. Told ya, told ya, told ya.. he would say.. and laugh some more... Idiots, he would tell the people.. You're idiots..
On the whole, I don't think Danny did much winning but some of the rookie players saw his predicting favorites going in the tank as real insight... If you asked him who he liked, he wasn't so good at this thing we call handicapping..
8 posts • Page 1 of 1
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests