opening day entries

[Kermit]

With all the lousy horses running in the opening day fiasco, I would expect this lofty group will easily eliminate the 'no-chance' horses, watch for horses who like Del Mar and horses that were ready to run at Hollywood but were waiting for the higher purses at Del Mar, and hit the P6, P4, all the P3's and every exacta. I realize there is a vast difference in hitting a Gr. I horse at 5/2 and a $40K claimer at 5/2, but the good players press on regardless.

Awaiting the reports of glory and fame.

[TurfRuler]

10% of the Del Mar handle comes from bettors at the track. Of the money bet at the track I would guess that 50%+ is bet by "informed" bettors who generally bet 10-20 times more than casual uninformed bettors. So that would leave 5% of the pool to the uninformed players who may or may not make a wise bet because even bad bettors win some of their bets. And many of the uninformed like to follow what their informed friends tell them to bet. The net result is that there is more handle but the betting patterns aren't very skewed.

I was trying to leave the informed players like you out of this scenario because it is frustrating and hard to shake off when an exotic wager we are so sure of fail, but it happens frequently. The informed players will toss a few caveman bets at the pick six and will be wondering why they left the long-shot out that made them go down to defeat. Also the Steve Crist disciples will be left wondering how they could miss when they thought they had everything covered. So I did not want to include informed players in my scenario for opening day because after the day is done their arrogance will be lying on the curb and they will be trying to figure out how to pick it up for Thursday if there is a carryover. I’m guessing there will most likely be and they will fail again until Saturday/Sunday when some sharpie or an uninformed player from Idaho or Virginia skews the pot.

[White Hat]

Be Realistic (ARG) - has been gelded since last start.