Andyc wrote:Handicapping is merely assessing a horse's chance of winning a particular race.If I believe that a race has 3 contenders and have assessed their probabilities of winning to be 40%, 25% and 20%. Why would any "competent player" skip betting the race because their 40% horse is 4/5 and their 25% horse is 8-1 and 20% horse is 10-1? That would be silly. Limiting yourself to just top selections makes for boring and far less profitable play. What you call "shopping", I call betting overlays. The problem with most incompetent bettors is that they don't completely assess horses other than their top selections so that when they move off of their top selection due to price they are ill prepared to make an alternate bet so they often make a bad one.
Here's where you and I part ways... If you say you'll bet Alydar at 7-2 versus Affirmed at 3-5, I'll respond like this; I won't bet Alydar at any price over Affirmed because he is the second best horse. I will wait till the next race and get 7-2 on the troubled maiden who I think is best.
You can entertain yourself that you really know this horse has a 25% chance versus this other one who has a 12% chance. For me, I'll wait till I think I have the BEST HORSE at a fair to generous price. Then, I''ll bet.