Del Mar Online Racing Community
Chat about horses, racing, and the industry.
Are you in a slump everywhere that you are playing or just at Santa Anita's Pro Ride surface? Maybe concentrating at a conventional dirt track like
Gulfstream or the Fairgrounds will help you out of the slump? I am having my own issues with Santa Anita right now. Just try to weather the storm
give me a month off, don't look at a pp the first few bets, THEN look briefly at it....and I automatically get "beginner's luck"...and I've been playing the horses since I could read....seriously....I seldom use the form.....confuzels this redhead.........
May I suggest 1-900@Theboxx.com
just $30 per daily card,
documented 50% winners from selected wagers!
And remember...Things work out best when you make the best of the way things work out.
I've gone twice since Santa Anita wasn't running, and didn't bother with GG either, had two glorious winning days. I've realized just because I know the jockeys and trainers on the West Coast doesn't make up for small fields and no 'depth' in the pay-offs. I play a lot of exotics with about 1/3 my bet being 'straight' money. At OP or Tampa I can miss the tri or exacta and still get out of the race because of the big fields and decent payouts. Ain't happening in SoCal. GP is a stand-off so far and I've backed-off a lot there. I have a positive ROI at FG but nothing to write home about.
If your 'comfort zone' is no longer comfortable, step out of it!
PS: Your Christmas card came back, bad address, so here's my belated Merry Christmas from the I-30 bridge near Garland.
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When things aren't going well.. I think it''s most important to focus on your gambling patterns. We all have our ways of approaching the game. Ask yourself.. What am I doing that's sustaining the streak of losses?
For myself, insofar as win-wagering, I'm a first-choice player. That means I never get off a horse because his price is too low and move to my second third or fourth. If the odds on my first choice are not sufficient, I pass. I don't go shopping. IMO, that's why most competent players lose. Generally, when I sustain losses, my discipline breaks down and I start fooling myself.. All the favorites look beatable. Heavy favorites are always vulnerable. I tend to adopt an alternative view of reality, where good priced horses are inherently better than lower priced horses. In other words, my thinking is no longer disciplined and reasonable, but jumbled. My ability to dispassionately weigh a horses chances versus his competitors suffers. My emphasis changes from finding winners to finding prices. It's a subtle process that I must battle with...
To give you an example... Listen to Ken at TVG. In every race, as the horses approach the gate, he discards whatever common sense he has and picks some horse that's a price. It doesn't matter that sometimes many of the others look much better. Any horse will do - if the price is right. He throws out some goofy, singular reason for his pick, and that's it. The work of handicapping becomes irrelevant. I'm not suggesting he is a good handicapper, but if he were.. he would sometimes suggest that the favorite seems best from every angle. He's a dart thrower and encourages others to throw darts with him.
When things are going poorly for me, I'm morphing into Ken Rudolph.. When I'm winning, I have other issues. I tend to become satisfied and often-times miss obvious opportunities. It's always a battle within ourselves.
Without knowing your habits, there is no answer. It's up to you to recognize your own tendencies. Then to correct and change your current practices into those that will allow you to win..
Don't over-handicap. You know how to pick winners! Trust yourself and go with what you know. The worst thing that happens in a slump is that you start doubting yourself and going away from what you know and do best and then comes the grasping at straws.
Or you can let Vic handicap for you and just bet Joel Rosario and Martin Garcia.
Handicapping is merely assessing a horse's chance of winning a particular race.If I believe that a race has 3 contenders and have assessed their probabilities of winning to be 40%, 25% and 20%. Why would any "competent player" skip betting the race because their 40% horse is 4/5 and their 25% horse is 8-1 and 20% horse is 10-1? That would be silly. Limiting yourself to just top selections makes for boring and far less profitable play. What you call "shopping", I call betting overlays. The problem with most incompetent bettors is that they don't completely assess horses other than their top selections so that when they move off of their top selection due to price they are ill prepared to make an alternate bet so they often make a bad one.
Sarcasm:the ability to insult idiots without them realizing it
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