Del Mar Online Racing Community
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7 posts • Page 1 of 1
Wasn't completely fit in last and almost held on. He's fully cranked up now, but the surface could be an issue. Has 2 dismal tries on the SA main, although both were sprints which isn't his strong suit and one was the throwout comebacker. So can't really tell if he likes this surface or not. It wasn't partuclarly kind to front runners in routes at Oak Tree, however, and haven't seen anything in the young meet to indicate that has changed. Bernstein says they dug it up a bit today, which also usually isn't a gift to the speed horses.
I'd expect Times Gone By to be favored off of fine turn form and mid 90's Beyers. Viscount will be rolling late, and has shown steady Beyer improvement every race since debut with a 91 in last. That's the same as our last fig, and if you only count routes we're on a modest uptrend also. Tony Lawlor lost Deal Breaker in a claim on Nov 6th, looks like he bought him back privately after one start in Mullins barn and returned him to Mitchell. Hardly a negative, since the horse ran 2nd and 1st (with 91 Beyer) in his two tries for Mike. The 1-6-7 seem pretty evenly matched on form. If TGB gets overbet (8/5 or less?) we could hope he's really better on the turf and look for value elsewhere. Maybe a 1-6 exacta box? Should get a clue from races 3-4-5-6 how the speed is holding up, but not sure we can really change our running style if it isn't.
Thanks Al for the heads-up on One Track Mind & yeah that 2nd Place finish last out @ $7-1 was nice, my only regret I wish I had bet more.
Only this time I agree the Pro-Ride @ SA may not be his Cup-o-Tea, so if he runs otm this time, next out may be the SA Grass might be what he needs. Of course I'm not the trainer or in on the ownership so I dont want to over-step my boundaries, but I just noticed that he's 1 for 1 on the grass from last Jan in a Alw-NW1X.
As Always Good Luck to All.
Nice run..maybe Sunshine Millions would be a good shot for 500K..
Very tough beat Al...Pedroza rode a perfect trip and he tried VERY hard.
As far as the Sunshine Millions, that is a lot more than he can handle at this point IMO.. If he can't beat NW2X with an easy lead twice in a row, he isn't going to beat far superior horses.
Obviously the distance of the (1 1/8th Sunshine Millions) 'Millions race is not ideal and it does look like there could be some speed in there..but not sure the quality is that strong in there, not sure it would be far tougher than this race. Pace wise likely would be stiffer, but its 500K. Many of the better ones in there Acclimation, Lethal Heat, Campari, Enriched etc are cross entered in the turf, think of the nom's its safe to say 3/4 of them would have been nowhere today in the NW2x.
Very game race, very exciting, from where we sat I actually thought he won when they crossed the wire live. Had to wait to see who the cameraman selected. Couldn't believe he was 14/1 when we first got to the paddock, I figured he'd be 5/1 or so. Still over 10/1 when we got upstairs, so made a nice WP bet, but only played exacta box with the 1, and didn't play tri box. At least family and friends played WP, so got their money's worth.
Personally, I preferred Pedrozas ride in the previous race -- don't go as slow as possible, instead try to open up some ground around the turn and top of the stretch. Just don't think he has the closing kick to outsprint a good closer unless he has a few length cushion. But slowing it down when on the lead is usually the right strategy, so can't fault a jock for going by the book. It was Martin's choice to stay off the rail, felt track was a little better in 2 or 3 path.
We're considering Sunshine Millions, as you said a lot of the better horses are nom to several races, and 4th place in the Classic pays about as well as winning this level alw. I'd make Bold Chieftain the best of the horses likely to go, with Machio Again, Palladio, Liberian Freighter and Compari also formidable. You can usually find out who is likely when it is closer to entry time. Don't even know if we'd get in, might need stakes earnings to make the field, and haven't seen the pricelist for entering & starting. That could make it a little less appealing also. Don't think 1 1/8 would be the problem, at one point trainer said he thought he could go 1 1/4. Might just stay in alw races and shoot for the Snow Chief on Cal Gold Rush Day at a track that usualy favors speed.
Yeah the early pace was slow, but you cant argue with the results. Another Nice 2nd just missing the Win @ 9-1.
I say Pedroza nursed all he could get out of One Track Mind & just fell short, still it was a gallant effort on the Pro-Ride surface, as for some reason early speed was holding up better than it usually does, so Pedroza realized this and adjusted & tried to take-em wire to wire. If this race had been on the Hollywood surface he probably Wins.
Good Luck in the future.
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