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OK party people, here are my picks for Opening Day, the greatest day ever in So. Cal to head to the track.
1st race: #8 Favre N Away
Drops for Bernstein off the turf miler across town, and moves back to preferred jock Pedroza. This dude cuts back from 1 mile to 7 furlongs and gets serious class relief. Love the last work across town, this guy clicks today at a price for underrated conditioner.
2nd race: #9 Smooth and Savvy.
Back in the hands of Peter Miller, this dude just competed against Autocue, who is one of the ones in here. This guy figures to track and pounce at a decent number, don't ignore.
5th race: #3 Searchforthetruth
This guy drops a peg for 26% Gilchrist barn, and Rosario rides back. Five for 22 lifetime, this guy sits a trip today and just gets up in time. Box w/#4 High Standards and #9 Bonfante.
9th race: #13 M One Rifle
This dude is coming off two disappointing efforts, which is great ,b/c that will help our price. Smith won't have to run a 44 half mile, and the feeling is that this guy should be able to control things going SLOWER than in his last two. If the pace is a bit soft, look for this guy to go a LONG way, probably all the way. Get down.
10th race: #11 Imperial Pride
Yeah, I know Hess likes this guy going longer, blah blah blah, but guess what? His main man, Desormeaux, is riding, and this guy is working well. Lastly, check out Hess and his numbers with FTS.....box with the #2 Machowsky charge, Nextdoorneighbor, and meet me in line to collect.
Good luck everyone!
Since you just gave the forum members a $26.00 winner, I was thinking you would rest on your laurels for a while. Tomorrow, 5 more winners only? When can we expect a cold pick six?
Got $6 ???
8th) #6 Starlarks, 20-1 ... Solis / Gallagher ...... Turf specialist has won on artificial before. Steady improvements in her short career. Nice price, good connections. 2nd, $15.40, 7.40
9th) #10 New Bay, 12-1 .. Solis / Papa ... odds are about right, can certainly win on Pro Ride, gotta step-up to the big leagues here. ran out
10th) #9 Let's Go Indian, 30-1 >>> scratched <<< ... Solis / Hendricks ... I am required to bet Indian-named horses anyway, but this one is actually interesting, and Solis has brought in some ..... priced maidens the last year or so. Seems the horse has been waiting for SA. I bet $2 ATB on #6 in this race.
Don't be so darn cheap, it's only $6. (Now a $2 P3 would pay nicely!).
Last edited by Kermit on Sat Dec 26, 2009 4:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Some brief full card analysis:
Race 1: #7 Papa Terry (9/2 ML)..looks like the speed of the field, dropping in class here. Upgrades to Bejarano here and has a 4 furlong Hollywood drill in :48. The pick in a weak race.
Longshot: #8 Favre N Away (8/1 ML)
Race 2: #5 Super Harmony (9/2 ML)..3rd start off an extended layoff and ran 2nd at the class level last. Should get a good trip behind the need the lead front running favorite.
Longshot: #3 James Prior (12/1 ML)
Race 3: #7 Snowmaster (4/1 ML)..tough trip in turf debut at Churchill, 3rd start off the layoff. Should get a lot of pace to run at and if Rose can work out a trip, he's a good one.
Longshot: #1 Canyon Drive (8/1 ML)
Race 4: #2 Lucy Got Lucky (3/1 ML)..single on the back end of the early pick four. Miserable trip last, was off slow, made a 4 wide move and tired. Comes off a Canani claim, and excellent workouts on the tab.
Longshot: #5 The Town Lady (6/1 ML)
Race 5: #4 High Standards (6/1 ML)..ran 2nd at the class level at Hollywood Park last. One turf start down hill was 2nd in the Sensational Star at Santa Anita. Goes to Talamo here and will be forwardly placed.
Longshot: #8 Major General (8/1 ML)
Race 6: #8 La Nez (3/1 ML)..best bet of the day if she runs here. Faces boys, but is by far the class of this race and faces a weak group of boys. Should get pace to run at, and is a single.
Longshot: #9 Bud I Crushed It (15/1 ML)
Race 7: #5 Massone (9/2 ML)..taking this one to beat the chalk in the Sir Beaufort. Beaten 2 lengths in Oak Tree Derby, he drops down to the mile getting Gomez. Wondering why the favorite is here, while this one is in a reasonable spot.
Longshot: #8 Pleasure to Ride (8/1 ML)
Race 8: #12 Pinkarella (6/1 ML)..won a N1X allowance most impressively at Hollywood last. Ideal outside draw for this 7 furlong dash in a race that has a fair amount of speed. Weak G1.
Longshot: #2 Alice's Smart (10/1 ML)
Race 9: #13 M One Rifle (5/1 ML)..not much speed in the Malibu and going with the one with the outside draw. Bad idea to rate this one last, as he is a true front runner. Smith will send him to the front here, and may never look back as he is being primed for this race.
Longshot: #10 New Bay (12/1 ML)
Race 10: #3 Concord Point (4/1 ML)..fine works for a Bob Baffert first time starter. Plenty of 6 furlong drills and Baffert does well with the firsters. The call in an open race.
Longshot: #7 Big Man Has a Sign (8/1 ML)
Take my advise and do what you please
i like James Prior in R2.
beat the luke warm morning line favorite, One Shot, 2 back.
drops 7lbs for this. Cerin/Santiago Reyes hit at a 33% clip in last 365 days(12 mounts 4 wins +7.10)
and of course the 12/1 ml odds.
might even play a flyer Cerin's horse in R1. Precious Duke
fats odds. only one race so improvement would not be a suprise.
broodmare sire is dixieland band- think some might have heard of this angle
hopefully will get the rest handicapped by post time.
good luck to all.
Races 5-7 @Aqu parlayed to M1...all 13s!
Bring it home strong Ogy!
Did not want to intrude on Murphy's selection site so will post the late four here with a modest play.
Would view this heat as having a speedy flavor and while QT is unbeaten long on the lawn we will single
the recent Hofmann's aquisition Tamborin. Winner twice in restricted company this son of Belong to Me
"missed" the fake stake three weeks ago by a $1000. after been in more than a few tough spots. Gets four pounds from the chalk,
Rosario and should get a decent set up here in a race where there is no one to play!!
It would require some inventive handicapping to play anyone other than Kays and Jays or Amazed by Grace. Two deep.
2.2 million KInsella was a lock in the opening leg of the sequence but lands here and the forest green and crimson colt looks formidable.
Also the Baffert comebacker Mythical Power. Congaree homer is pure racehorse and may be fit enough.
All three who have started can certainly win. Adding the Storm Cat who Humberto scratched two weeks ago. Played 2/1,4/2,5/1,2,5,6 Good cappin. bbb
Here's the recap..
Race 1: Top Pick Place @ 3/1; Longshot Show @ 13/1
Race 2: 5th @ 6/1; 4th @ 5/1
Race 3: Show @ 2/1; 4th @ 7/2
Race 4: Place @ 5/2; Win @ $10.00
Race 5: Show @ 9/2; 7th @ 7/1
Race 6: Show @ 8/5; 8th @ 22/1
Race 7: Show @ 6/1; 9th @ 9/1
Race 8: 8th @ 5/1; 10th @ 29/1
Race 9: Win @ $16.20; 13th @ 16/1
Race 10: Win @ $14.40; 6th @ 11/1
Top Pick Results: 10 Races, 2 Wins, 2 Places, 4 Shows, +$10.60
Longshot Results: 10 Races, 1 Win, 0 Places, 1 Show, -$10.00
ROI Total: +$0.60
Take my advise and do what you please
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