Del Mar Online Racing Community
Chat about horses, racing, and the industry.
I'm thinking that this topic, good capper/sucky@money, just might be how a guy like Andy Beyer decided to go public with his information once upon a time. He, and others like him, spent hours and hours studying and developing his handicapping system and speed figures, but to really make all that effort financially rewarding he needed to develop that constant main stream of cash coming in the front door, something he could actually count on for paying the rent.
Just a thought, you might want to sell your insights, count the cash coming in and give up the gamble.
Or......mentally treat horseracing more like owning a boat or playing golf. It's perfectly fine to put plenty of time and investments into your hobby, but at no time should you be expecting any significant financial rewards from it, ain't gonna happen for the vast majority of players. Just enjoy it for what it is, a hobby for entertainment purposes that has some occasional perks.
And remember...Things work out best when you make the best of the way things work out.
The implication is that your selections are good meaning that you would have a flat bet profit if you just bet to win. So the problem could be that you are turning good selections into bad selections by betting exactas, trifectas, etc. So it would seem that your problem is in how you select the horses to complete your exotic bets. So until you figure out how to successfully select horses that are best for the vertical bets stick to DDs, P-3s, P-4s and win bets.
Sarcasm:the ability to insult idiots without them realizing it
Okay here goes the secret to handicapping. The night before the races run yourself a nice warm bubble bath. Take a drink and a pen with you and handicap the races. No distractions, no outside influences, no information overload. Write down your top picks in the race and your second tiers. Then you can mark the ones you want to see replays and you want to look up pedigrees. I used to use trip handicapping more but I found that some horses always find trouble and it makes them look better than they are. Not always but often.
At any rate, stay with your picks unless there is a meltdown in the paddock, a change in the conditions or the odds don't suit. If the odds don't suit, skip the race don't just go to someone else because the odds look good. I have a new tri rule if I can't narrow the top down to two I don't bet it. I would rather have two on top and an all in either second or third. Then on pick 4's if you can't take a stand in at least one race you better feel confident you are going to get a longshot. I prefer to take two stands and open up in the other two legs. Anyone amazed that the last time Zenyatta ran the pick 4 paid around $500?
I guess what I'm saying is don't let other things influence you too much. I have more confidence in my handicapping than I do anyone else. I don't know what their thinking is. I know what mine is.
I'm having a bit of difficulty with the image of some of the guys in here enjoying a nice, warm bubblebath.
"Peace is that brief glorious moment in history when everybody stands around reloading."
-- Thomas Jefferson
I just thought that I would elaborate on "Watching Race Replays" since most seem to think its all about looking for horses that had "Trouble in Their Last Race". Let me be clear & say that Watching Race Replays is Not I Repeat Not[b] about looking for horses who had trouble in their last race.
There are lots of other things to look for when watching Race Replays. I will list a few things I watch for that can lead to wagering success in the future after watching Race Replays.
1: The horse who gains lengths in between the 1/4 pole & the Finish line, especially if they finish 6th or better in a field of 8 or more.
2; The horse who splits horses while gaining lengths in the last 1/8th, especially if they finish 5th or better in a field of 8 or more.
3: Starting Gate; Horses that break badly Inward or Outward, especially 2yo's, doesnt matter where they finish, look for these horses to improve next out if they have Early Speed Pedigree.
4: Look for Early Speed Horses who dont get uncontested leads who fade OTM & write their names down & store in your Stable Mail, sometimes if these horses Drop in Class or get a surface switch next out they improve dramatically to finish 1st or 2nd at nice odds.
5: Lastly look for the Winners of their last race who are stepping Up in Class in their next out, ie; a horse who Won a Maiden Claimer last out but who is facing a NW1X in todays race, or a Maiden Sp Wgt winner in his last race stepping up to a NW1X. or an Alw NW1X stepping up to a Minor/Major Stakes. Sometimes the way these horses ran in their last race when breaking their maidens will tip you that the horse is a future Stakes performer & you can score the square price before everyone else jumps on the bandwagon. A good example for me this year was Munnings on Belmont Day, now that everyone has seen him win the price isnt good anymore.
Good Luck to All & Enjoy Watching those Race Replays.
Yes but we got to get you to the next step up the ladder where you are beating more then the blue haired ladies at the injun joint.
Mr. Super Bowl
If it is bet, they will take it.
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