The good news, he's finally back. The bad news, he was working great but took a bad stumble galloping out after solid 7f work on 10/15. Needed a few days off, then gradually back into training after vet ok. All in all, had quite a few days of only light training, and could have used another work before this start. Add the fact that his best game is two turns, and this one has the look of a prep.
My analysis: G3 placed Euroglide is the most accomplished runner in the field, but seems to prefer turf or real dirt. Hasn't hit the board in 4 starts on synth. Eurton's other runner, Goldsville, is a comebacker like us, had solid form back East in 2008, but in his only two synth starts finished 6th & 7th at SA this winter. Was one of these entered to help fill the race for the stablemate? I don't know, but I'd have to pass on horses with this lack of synth form. Live Sundays looks like the speed, is in good form, and even though wins were at GG his Beyers are close enought that I don't think he's outclassed. Dapper Gene looks like the best closer to me. Winsome Charm was highly reagrded last year (was favored in Winstar Derby and won an alw with impressive 104 Beyer) but in 5 starts this year at this level has finished 5-4-4-4-3. Maybe some of those were a bit tougher than this one, but only one had more than 6 horses, so he's just been splitting the filed.
Hard to tell what we'll do. We think if he tries to fight Live Sundays for the lead he'll be toast, but in the past he hasn't been very happy when boxed in on the rail. Will see if Pedroza can back him off the pace without strangling the fight out of him, but horse may not cooperate. I'd be very happy to finish 3rd or 4th; a nice check when CA bred bonus is added, and would set him up nicely for next time. I don't bet against my own horse, but in this spot can't bet on him either. If asked my opinion, Exacta box of Live Sundays and Dapper Gene looks like a reasonable play.
If you happen to be one of the 17 people at the track on Wed, come down to paddock area after race #1 and say hello.