Del Mar Online Racing Community
Chat about horses, racing, and the industry.
Orb did beat IMLD and certainly is the one to beat.. He is 3-3 since adding Lasix, the worrisome part for me is whether his improvement stems from the addition of Lasix, or a love affiar with Gulfstream Park.
Reallyquiet's info is good. Thats what I took from the race and the betting that day in the Florida Derby that Itmyuluckyday was a 100% a go to win that day. The fact that he didnt is very telling but it also shows true of the beast that has turned into ORB. I do respect Itsmyluckyday in here though based soley on the fact that he is the most experienced and should sit the right kind of trip. I dont think he will be 15-1 either. Will be able to tell better what the real odds will be when the oaks-derby double probables come out early Friday.
itsmyluckyday reminds me of monarchos, monarchos was the 2to5 favorite in the wood memorial gets beat 3 lengths by congaree and then goes off at 10to1 in the kentucky derby. had he won the wood memorial he would have been 7to5 in the kentucky derby.
itsmyluckyday goes off at 8to5 in the florida derby he gets beat 2 and 1/2 lengths by orb. had he won the florida deby he would be 2to1 in the kentucky derby but instead he will be 10to1+
Odviously he would be a shorter price if he had won in Florida but he nor any other horse was ever going to be in the 2-1 range for the derby. Especially when it was a race that he was "supposed" to win.
if someone put a gun to my head and said pick the derby winner or im pulling the trigger i would have to pick itsmyluckyday.
i NEVER EVER bet two horses to win in a race, but im going to bet both itsmyluckyday and lines of battle across the board and box them in an exacta and put those two on top of 8 horses including each other in the trifecta. lines of battle will either run 1-2 or 19-20 he wont run 8th
Going with Will Take Charge in the Derby. Expect him to sit somewhere between 6th and 10th into the first turn. Think he will go off closer to 30-1 from his morning line of 20-1.
Going with Close Hatches in the Oaks. Think she can sit a trip and doesn't need the lead to win. Think she will go off a little higher than her morning line of 6-1.
Per the subject line in this thread, I believe you made the right call with Will Take Charge.
Women and cats will do as they please, and men and dogs should relax and get used to the idea.
Avatar: My cuzin Isaac Murphy - a jock I'm tying to emulate in character and winning percentage - almost 47% lifetime.
Not super confident but I really don't want to spread. Maybe it's my year. ???????????????
Good luck to everyone.
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