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Who do you like in the Derby and as importantly why??
Like most Kentucky Derby's, this years running is extremely contentious with several horses proving capable of winning...after viewing the prep races again and watchingthe way the contenders are training, I am making my Derby selection #12 It'smyluckyday. In my opinion his victory in the Holy Bull was the most impressive of all the three-year-old prep races, and I love the training job Eddie Plesa has done with him.. After winning the Holy Bull, he gave him a month off and trained him lightly up to the Florida Derby, just to hold his fitness and use that race as a prep up to the Ky. Derby. He is battle tested in big fields, has tactical speed and should get a great trip. I believe the son of Lawyer Ron can handle the ten furlongs, he has looked great galloping at CD and I look for a huge performance.
Last edited by Claimboxx on Wed May 01, 2013 4:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Beating Shanghai Bobby the best performance of the year?? In a slow pace,Orb still passed him,the way Ill Have Another beat Creative Cause.Itsmyluckydaycannot and will not finish in front of Orb.Now,will Orb beat all the others is a different question entirely.
And for those he think Itsmyluckyday was just prepping for the KY Derby in the Fla Derby,no.Plesa is a brother-in-law to my good friend trainer John Servis.Plesa wanted to win the Florida Derby(he being a perennial leading trainer in south Florida) more than any thing in the world.He is not good enough.
Sitting with John on Florida Derby Day,he put a VERY sizeable wager on Itsmyluckyday,and he doesnt normally bet a lot because his brother-in -law told him he would definetlly win.Itsmyluckyday was geared to win,and still got run over in a slow pace.That is a horrible sign of a horse who isnt on this level.
You certainly are entitled to your opinion..
I liked the IMLD way he won the Holy Bull, Shanghai Bobby was ready to fire his best shot off the bench that day and he beat him on the square...The way he looked winning in there was more impressive than any prep I have seen before or since.
Go back and look at the way Plesa trained IMLD after the Holy Bull win... No works for a month, he freshened him knowing he'd had a hard campaign and since he proved his legitimacy, he had to back off at some point and freshen him before the grind of the Triple Crown. I do not believe (no matter what you think) that he was primed for the Florida Derby.. I think it was a means to an end to maintain his fitness for the Ky Derby. If he won great, but that was NOT the primary objective.
While Orb beat him on the square, circumstances were far different there than they are for the Derby.. I like how battle tested IMLD is..He has been in big fields and run a lot, something I find integral in a 20 horse field. Orb is not nearly as battle tested. In addition, Orb really got good over the Gulfstream Park surface, a track many horses thrive on, but don't always duplicate elsewhere...
I am not taking anything away from Orb, he is a high quality horse going the right way at the right time, but I believe IMLD can turn the tables on him in here...
I like Normandy Invasion and the way he's training up to the race. Looks great during workouts and gallops and appears
to be a very happy horse at this time. Love the odds and trainer/jockey combo. I like him to Itsmyluckyday in the
exacta. Will also use him to Orb and Overanalyze. Good Luck to all.
RQ I respect what your saying re:Lucky Day. I just think his odds will be more than double of the favorites so I'm taking a small shot with a WP bet. I will be using several horses on top in the exotics.Thank God I have investors in Vegas this weekend.I'm guessing my largest wager will be the Derby super. Good luck.
Agree with you Claimboxx, I like Itsmyluckyday too. I see him, Orb, Revolutionary, and Overanalyze as my only serious win candidates. Goldencents and Mylute are a couple in my second tier but no way I'd be biting at 5-1 for Goldencents, I think he'll be 7-1 or 8-1. I don't see Verrazano in the top two. Overanalyze has run in six G3's or better so I think he offers some very good value at 15-1.
I can not and will not believe that Itsmyluckyday's work and race schedule was pointing for the maximun effort to be the Fla Derby. Taking off nine weeks, including 4 weeks of hardly any working is NOT the path for a guaranteed win in a Gr I race at a new and longer distance. I think he ran a great race for his 2nd, and it set him up for a max effort in the real Derby, that's worth $2 million, and from $3 million to $100 million in breeding money. Last time Itsmyluckyday took off two months, he ran 6th in his comeback race, 7 lengths out.
Apologies to your brother-in-law, but don't try to hustle the hustlers.
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