Del Mar Online Racing Community
Chat about horses, racing, and the industry.
I usually make medium win bet on 10-1 or more in the big dance. I think Its My Lucky Day has a big shot at big odds.He seemed a bit short in the Fla Derby after a 8 week layoff. He doesn't quit and he has speed to make a middle move to clear the 20 horse field.Lawyer Ron had a great career in the handicap division and he set a stakes record in the Woodward.I know Orb is the wise guy horse but its been a long time since the wise guy horse has won the Derby. Orb will be 6-1. ItsmyluckyDay will be at least 15-1 or more.
You could be right Fredo, it just might be your lucky day, that looks like a good one.
The odds will be fun to watch, lots of folks think Verrrazondomania will be the favourite but it doesn't seem like any of the public handicappers printed in the DRF are picking him on top, so it'll be a scramble on the toteboard for sure.
For me.....I'm just hoping OVERANALYZE drifts up just like he did in the future pools, guy gets no respect, is due for a bad one for cappers who follow that logic in the pps and seems to be totally overlooked imho.
When you handicap, do you ever take into consideration the vet?
Seems Vyjack, if the drug police don't catch on, can run large at a price, no?
Women and cats will do as they please, and men and dogs should relax and get used to the idea.
Avatar: My cuzin Isaac Murphy - a jock I'm tying to emulate in character and winning percentage - almost 47% lifetime.
remember the restrictions put on R Rod when he was granted a license to run in KY.
there is full time monitoring of his barn there at Churchill Downs I believe.
as for the question at hand, I cant try to pick a winner based on the odds.
have to handicap the race and then see if the odds are worth making a bet.
but the horses that will probably be on my p4 tickets that will be at 15-1 or greater, I would say Black Onyx, Will Take Charge.
Usually,but not always,the price of the Derby winner is directly related to the quickness of the pace.Long price horses like Monarchos,Mine That Bird,Giacamo,Thuner Gulch have come in when the pace s of those races ranged from fast to "lightning". Coned paces gave us horses like Smarty Jones,Silver Charm etc.. This isnt 100% full-proof,but is a usually reliable guide in a game of probabilities.The faster the pace,the more tired horses ther are with chaos ensuing.
Fredo, I like where youre at with Itsmyluckyday. Im envisioning him as this years Bluegrass Cat. In 06 BC had a lot of buzz early, and then didnt do so well in his last prep. Gets ignored on derby day, and goes off at 20-1 and gets 2nd to Barbaro. I keyed Barbaro over 6 over 10 in the tri that year, and hit it because I surely didnt forget about Bluegrass Cat. Im thinking Itsmyluckyday may be the same kind of horse. Was beaten by Orb, so that will keep attention off him, AND move his odds up. I think he is going to run big on Saturday. Good luck to ya!
Was watching McPeek the other day and he said he thinks the point system prevents any real speedballs from getting in. Haven't looked at the entire field yet but if Borel was on Java's war, he could suck the rail with him.
Gentlemen, there's no fighting here. This is the WAR ROOM!
President Merkin Muffley
Thank you JS. I had em in the Holy Bull and of course lost to ORB in the Fla. Derby. It won't be my biggest bet of the day but I'm not gonna let him beat me.Youz see what I'm saying ? I also did extremely well on Barbaro.Cashed em all except the super .Who do you like underneath or others on top? I feel Goldencents isn't getting any respect which is fine by me. I'm sure I'll use him on top of my huge exotic ticket.One more thing if the track comes up sloppy I'll also be using MyLute on top. His daddy was incredible in the slop and his style would make him a solid choice imho.Damm I'm gonna need alot of coin come Derby day.
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