Off the ponies for now

[Ogygian]

I am not positive, I would have to check to be sure, but I may be mired in the worst slump of my life at the track. I am only playing once a week, or once every other week, but things haven't been going very well.

I just may be the WORST handicapper on this board. In fact, I am sure of it.

[Billmose]

Ogy, I know you're a So Cal boy so I'm assuming most of your action is local.
And I think a lot of So Cals feel your pain - up close.

That being said, Bruno's not real happy with the local tracks either; have a look at his rant just last week @
http://www.oaktreeracing.com/sites/defa ... 0-17.pdfid

Hope this helps...

Sat. Oct. 17... Bruno -Oak Tree - Handicapper section..

[Vince P]

I am not positive, I would have to check to be sure, but I may be mired in the worst slump of my life at the track. I am only playing once a week, or once every other week, but things haven't been going very well.

I just may be the WORST handicapper on this board. In fact, I am sure of it. <img src="/images/chat/Emoticon11.gif">

Ogy,

What I do when I'm slumping, whether it be in bed or gambling on the horses, is double up. Eventually you'll hit something and win twice as much.

Vince P

[Bob B]

Ogy,

What I do when I'm slumping, whether it be in bed or gambling on the horses, is double up. Eventually you'll hit something and win twice as much.

Vince P

Perfect advice, Martingale.

[Vince P]

Perfect advice, Martingale.

I had to look that one up....Andy C and I have both used this system successfully.

Vince P

"Originally, martingale referred to a class of betting strategies popular in 18th-century France. The name is not eponymous; and there is no Monsieur Martingale. The simplest of these strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler wins his stake if a coin comes up heads and loses it if the coin comes up tails. The strategy had the gambler double his bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. Since a gambler with infinite wealth will with probability 1 eventually flip heads, the Martingale betting strategy was seen as a sure thing by those who practised it."

[Syncopate]

Ogy, I know you're a So Cal boy so I'm assuming most of your action is local.
And I think a lot of So Cals feel your pain - up close.

That being said, Bruno's not real happy with the local tracks either; have a look at his rant just last week @
http://www.oaktreeracing.com/sites/defa ... 0-17.pdfid

Hope this helps...

Sat. Oct. 17... Bruno -Oak Tree - Handicapper section..

Tried it but..............

Page not found
The requested page could not be found.

Bruno must have hit a sore spot.

[Mtholly1]

Ogy, pretty sure inthe old DMR forum... Nash posted the ultimate slump buster... Don't remember it exactly.. but it was something like this..
head to bank/ATM... get out a G or 2, play pick 3 or pick 4 ... ticket is "All / All / All / All"

Good luck

[Billmose]

Billmose wrote:Ogy, I know you're a So Cal boy so I'm assuming most of your action is local.
And I think a lot of So Cals feel your pain - up close.

That being said, Bruno's not real happy with the local tracks either; have a look at his rant just last week @
http://www.oaktreeracing.com/sites/defa ... 0-17.pdfid

Hope this helps...

Sat. Oct. 17... Bruno -Oak Tree - Handicapper section..



Tried it but..............

Page not found
The requested page could not be found.



Bruno must have hit a sore spot.

Sorry; I noticed the link didn't work-- that's why I added
Sat. Oct. 17... Bruno -Oak Tree - Handicapper section..Gotta do it long hand...
but if you guys havn't read this yet ... It's worth the effort!

[Dgstan]

How to fix the 'Handle' my two cents worth

By Bruno De Julio

On track handle at Oak Tree is down. Well, that may be my fault. I have played
sparingly at the meet. I do admit being part of the problem, but I have a solution.
At the moment, however, the affable Oak Tree executive vice-president Sherwood
Chillingsworth was quoted in Steve Andersen Thursday column "Oaktree Handle
at Oak Tree takes big hit' in the DRF Thursday print edition, "I just don't think
people have the money now," Chillingworth said, referring to the recession that
has hit the nation.

Well, maybe, I like Sherwood Chillingsworth and Ron Charles, and the rest of the
Oak Tree and Santa Anita management. Seriously, I can work with them, we have
the same common goals, and that is what is best for their product, the horsemen,
fans and handicappers.

So, how do I become part of the solution instead of the problem. I have been very
vocal, at Del Mar, and so far at Oak Tree on my thoughts on the polytrack and Pro-
Ride.

At Del Mar I didn't think anyone cared about the player's bankroll (no, I don't
believe in stats I believe in customer service), and I think in many ways it is being
really felt now. In my mind, you have to keep things consistent, which is not to
confuse issues with predictability.

I have seen very little difference in the track from the standpoint, inside to
outside, but I did see a difference from opening week and the second week.
Seemed like the second week the track was heavier, in morning and afternoon. ( I
think that may have been the knee jerk reaction of the break downs on opening
week)

I did have a filly run over it, Dancing Jeannie, her second lifetime start as she is a
speedball, who was adding blinkers. She broke right on top (Friday, October 9 -
3rd race), was wrestled back and kept four wide, made a move under a hold on
the turn and then stopped. On the dirt, she would have drawn the comment
''gone'' from the gate, but because of the pro-ride's lack of resiliency and pace
friendly-less as we have seen speed horses make winning moves into the
three/eighths pole and then really struggle all meet, she floundered.
Thus, some of the comments made caught my eyes from this weekend Stakes
fallout:

Calvin Borel, Mine That Bird that finished sixth in the Goodwood Handicap:
"He had a perfect trip, but he got to struggling a little. When I asked him to go get
them, he was struggling over the track a little bit. Maybe a little bit firmer ground

where I can just let him break, and pick him up easy - Instead of this quick- will
be better for him...................He's a lot better horse on the dirt. When you ask him
here, he goes to struggling instead of just running. ...."

Did Calvin say quicksand and was it edited out? or did he stop himself? It's OK to
say 'Quicksand' Calvin, it is OK, or about Marco Botti, trainer of Gitano Hernando
winner of Goodwood Stakes, who commented on the Pro-Ride main track being
''turf friendly'' . Yes, ''turf friendly'' meaning that Europeans will once again reign
this year on this surface judging by the Goodwood Stakes result.
Brad Free the venerable daily Handicapper and Analyst for the DRF had a
tremendous column in Saturday's October 10th edition shedding a light on this
discussion even before the stakes results were even warm:
His objective view of the Del Mar Debutante and the immediate reaction and
analysis of the bunched field at the wire may have been premature as Blind Luck
and La Nez have both come back to validate the results. "Synthetic surfaces lend
themselves to bunched finishes. Displays of pure brilliance do not occur, and a
bunched field doesn't necessarily mean a bad race'' Free wrote. Baffert chimed in
with "you can't separate yourself,'' as he added his two cents to Free's
discussion.

Free concluded that 'finish margins and final times might be less important than
the fact they showed up and hit the board' .

Free also chimed in on the track trends in his Analysis on October 10. "...if you
were on the lead in a sprint or a route, you were not winning the race,'' he wrote.
"Pacesetters went 2 for 28 on the main track and only 1 for 20 in sprints, '' but
Free wasn't done as he also identified that pressing types who were positioned
on top of the pacesetters, or who had first run on the pace, had the advantage.
The whole notion that front running speed is to be completely scrubbed from
winning equation is quite disturbing since we buy horses that have speed and are
trained for speed. We breed, break, train horses for speed, and yet we have to
shelter ourselves from selecting or sending speed horses to the lead on these
synthetics, especially pro-ride. So, as a handicapper, you may correctly identify
the speed, the lone speed and then throw it out. You own a speed horse and
speed is your best asset, then re-train and teach your speed horse to rate. Don't
train horses for this pro-ride for speed. Harder said than done. Might as well reinvent
the wheel!

So, let's be the solution and not the problem! OK, you got me. I have no idea.
Don't bet would be one, but come on! That's not an option, even though,
maybe
others
have gone to such drastic manners. There are other tracks with
good dirt main tracks, but none other than Los Alamitos are in my back yard.
So, it comes back to the same argument, Yes, 'Chilly' the economy has been an

issue, but in the racing industry we can specifically point to the performance
of the Pro-ride and Polytrack. They are the source and reason players are not
playing.

So having promised to be part of the solution and not the problem I have a plan:
Let's have everyone bring the dirt back they gave away in 2007, plus if you bring
up a pound extra you get a friend in gratis. You show up with your John Deere
tractor or bulldozer with dirt and you park for free. Two free Tickets for the
Breeders Cup on Friday and Saturday for anyone that takes the pro-ride with them
in a bag or in their John Deere after the races. In the fine print you will read that
anyone with the last name of Wood will be subject to an intense background
investigation.

We can call this solution or promotion: Got dirt?

What about it ?

----------------

From the Oct. 17th entry here: http://www.oaktreeracing.com/handicapping/bjulio

[JDinSD77]

I bet the ponies 5 days a week(90% of the weeks during the year) and have for years. I'm no professional however, and I can't imagine doing this if I HAD TO show a profit to make my living. It's strange because for the last 3 years or so I've ended each fiscal year around even which I think is remarkable to accomplish considering how fricking hard it is to ever cash. I lost lots of money for years which I'm guessing is like most long-time gamblers, at least ones that will speak the truth.

But here's the wierd thing that has covered this whole time period. There might be figuratively a week where I don't cash a single ticket, and that's betting maybe a hundred races. And I'll feel just like you Kevin. And I'll analyze for hours what I think I'm doing wrong and whether my "other" life is bothering my betting(and of course vice-versa). And there's times where this one week can stretch of horrific can become two or even three weeks. And somehow, it's always turned around. The one constant, I have painstakingly found time and again, is it's a guarantee(for myself at least), that if I up my bets to get back what I've lost in any previous time period I will 100% of the time make it much worse.

It sucks to feel mired down, but even good handicappers(like I know you are)have to muddle through the bad 'til it flips to the good.