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Interesting race. Heres my take on it.
The way I am approaching this race is Im tossing out the runners who ran in the Withers Stakes. In which Revolutionary had as much trouble in 1 race as many have in an entire career and he was still able to win.
Overanalyze will probably be favored and odviously can win but Ive never really been a fan so I dont want him off of a 4 month layoff drawing post 12 as the favorite.
Vyjack who I think should be favored has a big chance but the 2nd through 5th place finishers of the Jerome all came back to regress there beyer number in there next race. This is Vyjacks 1st race off of that win so maybe he will come in refreshed and Rudy has stated that he is training nicely coming into this race. Seems like a tough task though to start out your career a perfect 4 for 4, especially in a grade 3.
Sky Captain I dont want as the horse that defeated him, Cerro came back to run up the track in the Foutain of Youth last Saturday. Im not buying that his 86 Fig was legit. If he wins I will lose.
Elnaawi is where I am going to end up. Broke his maiden nicely last race. Dont like that the second place finisher came back to bomb at 4/5 in his next race but the 3rd place finisher Incognito who I think may have a bit of a future came back to increase his Beyer 17 points. I like that Elnawi has been freshened up and has been working nicely for this race. I think when it is all said and done he will have the biggest future of those entered in this race and he needs the points to become eligible for the derby, Im expecting a huge race from him.
I will take another McLaughlin horse as an ITM surprise, #1 Transparent, 8-1. They finally quit sprinting him and he was impressive in his win last out. The longer the better. You can say the race was slow, but when you're ahead 4-5 lengths down the stretch you don't push.
Amerigo Vespucci is probably better than 20-1, he always gets a piece of a race.
I think Pletcher would be happy with 2nd or 3rd for Overanalyze in this comeback race. They want to win the Wood more than they do this one, I think Vyjack needs these points.
I don't like any of the NY horses.
So, that leaves me with Ore Pass, Sky Captain, and Overanalyze.
Don't like Sky Captain, Ore Pass looks a little slow, and Overanalyze is stuck in the 12 hole and may need a race...
Not good choices here...
I actually may end up on Ore Pass. Probably get 20-1 for my troubles...
Would have been nice if Channing Hill could have saved even one inch of ground. Was essentially 4 wide the entire trip and still managed 3rd. Was clearly the 2nd best horse in the race. I dont see any serious derby contenders coming out of this race. Anyone disagree?
5 posts • Page 1 of 1
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