Rainbow 6 conundrum....

[Reallyquiet]

Love it or hate it,the Rainbow pick-6 has a carry-over of 1.3 million today.This brings up a lot of interesting questions,
Looking at the card today,if you add up the entries of the 6 races in the sequence(assuming that some of the 14 horse fields scratch down to 12),there are roughly 1.6 million different combinations.As this bet is dime based,that means any syndicate would have to fork over 160,000 to "buy" the bet.I know a group of day traders who do such things from NYC.I called them monday,and they said as long as there wasnt going to be any 3/5 shot in the sequence(i.e. a calabrese horse),they were thinking of doing it.
This raises a bunch of intriguing questions.Since the entire pool only pays out for 1 winner,there is high risk.If multiple winners exist,only 40% is paid out.That means if there is 2 million in the pool today,only 800,000 would be paid out,and 5 winners would get 160,000,or a "break-even" proposition for players who buy the bet.If there are less than 5 winners they make out.....and if its a chalkfest,they can take a bath.
Also,what if 2 or 3 syndicates or hedgefund guys have the same plans,INSURING that there wouldnt be a sole winner,exponentially jacking up the pools.It could turn into a very costly game of "chicken" each day until one group gives up.This pool has turned more into a poker game than a horse bet. Any thoughts?

[Andyc]

Love it or hate it,the Rainbow pick-6 has a carry-over of 1.3 million today.This brings up a lot of interesting questions,
Looking at the card today,if you add up the entries of the 6 races in the sequence(assuming that some of the 14 horse fields scratch down to 12),there are roughly 1.6 million different combinations.As this bet is dime based,that means any syndicate would have to fork over 160,000 to "buy" the bet.I know a group of day traders who do such things from NYC.I called them monday,and they said as long as there wasnt going to be any 3/5 shot in the sequence(i.e. a calabrese horse),they were thinking of doing it.
This raises a bunch of intriguing questions.Since the entire pool only pays out for 1 winner,there is high risk.If multiple winners exist,only 40% is paid out.That means if there is 2 million in the pool today,only 800,000 would be paid out,and 5 winners would get 160,000,or a "break-even" proposition for players who buy the bet.If there are less than 5 winners they make out.....and if its a chalkfest,they can take a bath.
Also,what if 2 or 3 syndicates or hedgefund guys have the same plans,INSURING that there wouldnt be a sole winner,exponentially jacking up the pools.It could turn into a very costly game of "chicken" each day until one group gives up.This pool has turned more into a poker game than a horse bet. Any thoughts?

The last 3 days the pool sizes have been as follows: Friday 357,717, Sat 458,796, Sun 406,737. I would expect that today's pool would be between $375,000 and $475,000. So 40% of those numbers don't provide a lot of insurance for someone trying to buy the pool. If from a handicapping perspective the card looks impossible it might be just the day to try and buy it.

[Crazykid]

i dont see how this could do anything but help. i cant see one thing about it that would hurt the sport, the handle, the attendance.

[Andymays]

The fact that a lot of people always talk about it makes it a big winner for Gulfstream.

[Andyc]

The fact that a lot of people always talk about it makes it a big winner for Gulfstream.

How so? People will now focus on the bet and how absurd it is bet it unless you're a hedgefund manager with unlimited funds. Idiot lottery type bettors is not what racing needs and promoting bets such as the Rainbow P-6 will not attract sophisticated deep-pocket bettors that are the life-blood of the industry.

If you watch the WSOP on ESPN you can't help but notice that many of the top players are young and well-educated. They know math and are expert at probabilities. That is the type of player that racing needs. They don't need some old uneducated lottery player who can't count to 10 if you spotted him 1 through 9.

[Andymays]

The fact that a lot of people always talk about it makes it a big winner for Gulfstream.

How so? People will now focus on the bet and how absurd it is bet it unless you're a hedgefund manager with unlimited funds. Idiot lottery type bettors is not what racing needs and promoting bets such as the Rainbow P-6 will not attract sophisticated deep-pocket bettors that are the life-blood of the industry.

If you watch the WSOP on ESPN you can't help but notice that many of the top players are young and well-educated. They know math and are expert at probabilities. That is the type of player that racing needs. They don't need some old uneducated lottery player who can't count to 10 if you spotted him 1 through 9.

It's a genius marketing gimmick. Not saying it's good for the Players but this is the most talked about wager in horse racing by a mile.

[Andyc]

It's a genius marketing gimmick. Not saying it's good for the Players but this is the most talked about wager in horse racing by a mile.

You are going on the assumption that all publicity is good publicity. Genius marketing would be attracting the right customer for the long-term survival of your business.

[Kermit]

When said 'uninformed' bettor bets the 10¢ P6, spend $36.70, and hit the 'small' payout for $6,856.40, then he thinks he's a genius and is happy as hell, and tells all his friends about it, and finally bags Jo Ann. No downside there, and not a bad ROI. He thinks the 'takeout' was the $20 tip he gave the teller.

[Andymays]

It's a genius marketing gimmick. Not saying it's good for the Players but this is the most talked about wager in horse racing by a mile.

You are going on the assumption that all publicity is good publicity. Genius marketing would be attracting the right customer for the long-term survival of your business.

In theory you are right but in reality this works. It has grown in popularity not the other way around.

[Sun Devil]

So is it better for Gulfstream to have this thing hit in the next couple of days, or would they rather it go on until the mandatory payout on closing day? I would think they would want to have multiple winners per meet so when it comes around next year people decide not to just wait and play it on closing day.