Bob B wrote:Summer Bird with a win in Classic- 4 Grade 1 wins, 2 against older horses, lost to Rachel by 6 lengths head to head
Zenyatta with a win in Classic - 4 Grade 1 wins, all in California, 1 outside her division
Rachel in the clubhouse - 5 Grade 1 wins, raced in 6 states at 7 tracks, 3 outside her division, 1 against older males
Rachel is horse of the year.
If you want to make a case for Gio Ponti with a win in the Classic giving him 5 Grade 1 wins on synthetic and grass from 1 - 1 3/8 miles I'd be open for discussion.
I thought the only way Zenyatta would have a good shot at HOY was if Sea The Stars ran in the Classic, all the other horses still showed up, and the mare won. Without Sea The Stars in the lineup, Zenyatta can do no better than a repeat of older female champion, which is in itself, a very nice honor.
If Summer Bird doesn't win the Classic but beats all the other three-year-olds to the finish line, he's a lock for three-year-old male champion. If he were to win the Classic, he of course gets that award, but I would still name Rachel the HOY for the obvious reason.
Geo Ponti is very intriguing, and if he were to win the Classic, he'd be worthy of HOY; however, I still think Rachel, based on what she's done, is pretty much a lock. The only horse, IMO, who may have been able to take that away from her, is Zenyatta, but the scenario she would need won't happen now.
IMHO.