SA 9 pounded exacta

[Andyc]

i would feel pretty sophisticated if i bet $1,500.00 on a $57.00 winning exacta

You would if you didn't mind losing 33%-40% to cannibalization. I would have spread to other bets such as the trifecta which was left virtually unscathed by the betdown. With the money bet there was way too much left on the table. Sophistication is knowing how to maximize your bets.

[Crazykid]

im not questioning your math but using your math this person won $86,500.00 on that exacta
still seems pretty sophisticated to me.

[Andyc]

im not questioning your math but using your math this person won $86,500.00 on that exacta
still seems pretty sophisticated to me.

Yes, but he would have looked a whole lot more sophisticated had he taken down $150,000. You have to maximize your winners because the losers and bad beats will always have their day.

[Vince P]

You would if you didn't mind losing 33%-40% to cannibalization. I would have spread to other bets such as the trifecta which was left virtually unscathed by the betdown. With the money bet there was way too much left on the table. Sophistication is knowing how to maximize your bets.

Andy,

How would you know AHEAD of time that the Trifectas, etc, were left unscathed by the betdown? If you saw the exacta paying $50 and morning lie odds of 9/2 and 6-1 on those two, why would you assume that other exotic pools were larger with both of them included?

Personally, if I liked Collation, I would have bet him to win at 18-1, which might have been an overlay, but that's just me.

Vince P

[Crazykid]

im no math major but if you put a bunch of that $1500.00 on the trifecta instead of the exacta wouldnt that have brought the tri payoff down?
all ican say is if i hit an exacta for $86 thousand dollars i sure wouldnt be kicking myself because i didnt hit the trifecta too.

[Andyc]

Andy,

How would you know AHEAD of time that the Trifectas, etc, were left unscathed by the betdown? If you saw the exacta paying $50 and morning lie odds of 9/2 and 6-1 on those two, why would you assume that other exotic pools were larger with both of them included?

Personally, if I liked Collation, I would have bet him to win at 18-1, which might have been an overlay, but that's just me.

Vince P

Good questions. But seeing as the bettor is the one doing the betdown the pool was unscathed because he hadn't played trifectas. The point is that dilution can be minimized by spreading in different pools. The win pool is probably one of the smarter plays because it's large and dilution is less severe than in the exotic pools.

If I saw an exacta paying $50 I wouldn't look at the morning line for any information. Exactas on the win end generally reflect their win odds. So if a horse has 20% of the pool bet on it in the win pool it will also have about 20% of the exacta money using the horse on top. But given the scenario the big bettor isn't seeing a $50 exacta on the board he is seeing a $100 exacta. The $50 only happens after he bets. So I would have to believe that any trifecta payoff is in line with a $100 exacta.