Expert Opinion: Jockeys Are Important

[MikeFromGardena]

Recently there have be estimates given in this forum that a horse's chance of winnning breaks down to 96% horse, 2% jockey, and 2% whatever. I feel these numbers grossly underestimate the importance of the jockey. There are others who feel the same way.

For example, take this conversation from the movie The Big Sleep. Always cautious private eye Phillip Marlowe, played by Humphrey Bogart, is getting to know Vivian, a wealthy, heavy drinking gambler, played by Lauren Bacall:

Phillip Marlowe: "Well, I can't tell till I've seen you over a distance of ground. You've got a touch of class, but I don't know how, how far you can go."
Vivian: "A lot depends on who's in the saddle."

That's all I have to see. Vivian says that who you put in the saddle is important. Vivian knows.

We can argue over what Vivian means by "a lot," but you better believe it's a lot more than 2%.

[Hollywoodmike]

The clip instructions for a new jockey from Seabiscuit (2003)

Are you gonna scratch?
No, we're not gonna scratch.
Red Pollard wants Seabiscuit to win this race more than anything in the world.
He wouldn't let us scratch.
Thank you much. I appreciate it.
You're welcome.
The Iceman cometh.! What a pinch hitter.
Why, it's like getting Babe Ruth off the bench. Nerves of steel, ice water in his veins.
Why, George Woolf is...
Irrelevant.
They can get the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse as far as I'm concerned.
Won't make any difference. War Admiral is a superior horse with superior breeding.
Doesn't matter who the passenger is.

I believe it's 95 to 98 per cent horse.

[Kermit]

"Who the hell knows, kid - when the gate opens it's just the jockey and the horse. All the rest of us are just along for the ride."
--racetrack wisdom given out for free along the rail, Hollywood Park, circa 1988

[WhipNRide]

Id love to see some jockeyless races.....bet you would hear words out of gamblers that could never be repeated. Just put ten head in the gate and turn them loose.