http://www.drf.com/news/brad-free-bonus ... -six-notch
Another thing bettors will thrive on is an innovative twist being planned for the Santa Anita pick six that would effectively reduce the takeout rate to just 3.68 percent for ontrack players. It could bring the wager storming back to popularity.
Santa Anita officials and Thoroughbred Owners of California on Friday were finalizing details of a creative idea that offers a 20 percent rebate bonus to winning ontrack pick six bettors. Takeout for the bet is 23.68 percent; the bonus drops the effective rate to 3.68.
Details have been slow to emerge, and track officials declined comment until the plan is signed, but one TOC source said, “It’s a done deal.”
As of Friday, the proposal faced legal and infrastructure hurdles; none was considered insurmountable. The concept is expected to work like this: Winning pick-six tickets purchased at Santa Anita by an “account-holder,” who must swipe an account card, would receive a 20 percent rebate bonus on non-carryover days.
For example, a $10,000 pick six winner would receive a $2,000 rebate
bonus. A $100,000 pick six winner would receive an additional $20,000.
The bonus would be offered regardless of number of winning tickets.
The plan would be funded from the California Marketing Committee and the TOC.
Track president George Haines deferred comment on the plan, which is tentatively scheduled to launch Jan. 1.
While getting a 20% bonus on a Pick 6 is certainly a good thing Brad Free is incorrect regarding the effective takeout when considering the bonus. Because the winners share of a P-6 pool is about 53.16% of the total pool the 20% bonus only reduces the effective takeout by 10.63% so the effective rate is 13.05%. Good but I won't be making any special trips to the track to bet a 13.05% takeout bet on a non-carryover day.
But, boy, did I get the math wrong in a Dec. 26 story in Daily Racing Form. While pick-six takeout is 23.68 percent, a 20 percent bonus would not reduce “effective takeout” to 3.68 percent, as reported.
It is a good deal still, but the bonus would reduce effective takeout only to 13 percent. The math is basic: 76.32 cents per dollar ($1 minus 23.68 percent takeout) is returned to pick-six bettors, of which 53.42 cents (70 percent) goes to major payoffs and 22.89 cents (30 percent) to consolations.
The 20 percent bonus would apply to, at most, just 53.42 percent of the pool. That would increase the payoff to 64.10 percent. Add 22.89 percent in consolations and total return is 86.99 percent of the pool.
That would make effective takeout slightly above 13 percent.
A 13 percent takeout is nothing to sneeze at, and would be lower than the best daily wager (pick five) offered at Santa Anita. The pick-six bonus will be in effect on non-carryover days, for ticket-holders that swipe an account card beforehand.