Del Mar Online Racing Community
Chat about horses, racing, and the industry.
Whenever I watch replays of the BC or any other race for that matter, I always review what numbers, form, works, condition, etc, the winner had. Once in a blue moon, I actually learn something.
Then I ask myself:
If that race was run again would I have played that horse at those odds? The important criteria being "those odds."
Over the weekend there were several races I just watched replays of and checked numbers, second guessed myself, etc, etc.
Some winners I would never have played, specifically Beholder, who is a very, very nice filly but I thought I saw bounce written all over her, especially with all the speed in that race. But the main thing was, "not at 3-1."
On the other hand, there was Tapizar. Not the most consistent horse in the world. He had run 4 times at Santa Anita; two monster wins while dueling or on the lead. And two horrible races, with the same running style.
But it was pretty obvious: this Tapit colt has a ton of talent. Will he throw in another clunker or will he run one of his good ones on a track he sometimes likes?
Like the dummy I am, I saw the glass only 47% full.
In hindsight, at 15-1, and hoping he runs "one of his good ones" on a speed favoring track he likes sometimes, he was a definite play I'd make if the race was run again. The deciding factor should have been his 15-1 and not the other speed in the race.
For the record, Vince figuratively lost his lovingass on Jonathan Scott but I did learn a lesson.
What lessons did you learn and what horses do you think you should have played if you were a tad smarter?
Would love to learn some more in here.
Women and cats will do as they please, and men and dogs should relax and get used to the idea.
Avatar: My cuzin Isaac Murphy - a jock I'm tying to emulate in character and winning percentage - almost 47% lifetime.
Way to cast stones at a glass house. Remember the Pacific Classic when you said Dullahan had zero chance?
http://dmtc.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4 ... 8b5e11a288
And what about your super horse Obviously? How did he do?????????? Paid the same as Dullahan did to win on Saturday, I guess.
Stick to protecting your form from the hoodlums at Inglewatts
Take my advise and do what you please
Avatar = SACRED LIGHT
Obviously ran a super race and only a track record performance beat him. Dullahan couldn't be found with a search warrant.
Last edited by Hollywoodmike on Mon Nov 05, 2012 12:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I learned that with full fields of good horses, you can't expect to tell 3 horses what order to run in, let alone 4. BC's will be win / place bets for me frOm now on. I will hit the killer P4 at some small track that has more bad horses than good ones.
A 30-1 in the BC is so much better than a 30-1 in an allowance or claiming race. It's really tough to hit a rolling exotic bet
like a pick 3 or 4. Costs too much to cover all the horses you need in those wagers.
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