My Kentucky Derby top 10

[Crazykid]

my superfecta today, subject to change
1st=optimizer
2nd=wrote
3rd=hansen
4th=alpha

[Vince P]

my superfecta today, subject to change
1st=optimizer
2nd=wrote
3rd=hansen
4th=alpha

CK,

I ain't gonna take you seriously until you put Dullahan in the top 3, or top 2, or even on Top.

Put it this way, IF Dullahan doesn't finish 1-2 in the Darby, beep me and I will put you on standing order for a Quacko a week until either you pass out or get too old for fun. You have this in legal writing.

Vince P

[Moonwalker]

my superfecta today, subject to change
1st=optimizer
2nd=wrote
3rd=hansen
4th=alpha

CK,

I ain't gonna take you seriously until you put Dullahan in the top 3, or top 2, or even on Top.

Put it this way, IF Dullahan doesn't finish 1-2 in the Darby, beep me and I will put you on standing order for a Quacko a week until either you pass out or get too old for fun. You have this in legal writing.

Vince P

If Dullahan wins the Darby, is it going to be like Ken Ruduph with Giacomo for you? We'll never hear the end of it, ha ha!

If he wins, he will make his mom Mining My Own the first dam of two Kentucky Derby winners -- and a very valuable mare!
(Iron Liege's and Swaps' dams were mother and daughter.)

Mary MMM

[Tvghrtvfan]

call me crazy but i think if optimizer wins the arkansas derby then am gonna put him on top of my derby list. i think this will be his perfect distance and come derby time it'll be even more pefect for him to win.

[Crazykid]

he may not win this race, its to short for him. if he does win i hope its not a gut wrenching hard fought battle,
but instead what i picture bodemeister on the lead with secret circle closing at the 8th pole then out of nowhere here comes sabercat and optimizer just ing by both bafferts with optimizer winning without being shown the whip in a hand ride.

[Kermit]

he may not win this race, its to short for him. if he does win i hope its not a gut wrenching hard fought battle,
but instead what i picture bodemeister on the lead with secret circle closing at the 8th pole then out of nowhere here comes sabercat and optimizer just ing by both bafferts with optimizer winning without being shown the whip in a hand ride.

OK. Hey, don't Bogart that.

[Crazykid]

the thing about these final derby preps is it's a fine line. i hear people saying that the trainers should not be completely geared up to win but should instead leave something in the tank for the derby. problem with that way of thinking is the value of these horses. lets say hansen just runs around there in the bluegrass and then isnt good enough in the derby.
now he doesnt have the bluegrass win on his resume which would only increase his value at stud, but now he has lost both the bluegrass and the derby which has to make his stud fee lower than just a win in the bluegrass. if a horse can win any of these final preps its worth a lot more than not winning them and then not winning the derby

[Tvghrtvfan]

Well I knew this was going to be hard to edit this derby list because we just learned more about this year's Derby off this weekend's derby preps!! Here's the new list:


1. I'll Have Another-Has impressed me in his last couple starts. Did shock me in the Bob Lewis 2 races back and no shock with his win in the Santa Anita Derby beating #3 in that race. If he brings this up come Lousiville he's going to be your winner.

2. Union Rags-May still or may not be the Derby favorite after #4's performance. Anyway, has had a solid career but still promising. He ran great in his 3 year old debut in the Fountain of Youth and then had traffic problems in the Florida Derby as he was starting to make his late run at the end. So, now I believe maybe his race will be a toss out if he has not trouble come Derby time.

3. Creative Cause-Thought he ran a winning race in the Santa Anita Derby but #1 outran him to finish 2nd. So far during this Derby trail, he was a 3rd in the San Vicente to begin his 3 year old debut and was a winner 2 races back in the San Felipe. He appears to probably one of the best chances from CA to win the Derby as he'll be at short odds but #1 made himself look as good as #3 is. 

4. Gemologist-He has an advantage over the CD course. Looked beat in the Wood Memorial but came back hard and strong to win outrunning #6 who ran a great race too. Won the KY Jockey Club last year and can be the Derby favorite probably off his Wood win.

5. Bodemister: He looked amazing in the Arkansas Derby going lone speed. He now is the best Baffert runner to win the Derby now after this win.  He seems to really be improving at the right time. He would be a consider in this Derby as well. 

6. Alpha-Was a monster at the beginning of the year taking 2 of the prep races leading up to the Wood Memorial (Withers and Count Fleet). Had to overcome alot of problems during the Wood Memorial and still ran an awesome race in defeat but #4 outran him. I think he can avoid traffic trouble in the Derby after his Wood effort.

7. Hansen-Well he almost lone speed in the Blue Grass but #9 caught him at the end. He didn't need to win the race, he just needed to run a fine race to be a contender for the Derby. I still think he's proven to be versatile despite his blue grass performance. In last year's BC Juvenile lone speed as #2 had alot of trouble that day getting himself together but he was still able to be lone speed. He ran a terrible debut in the Holy Bull and then was able to sit off the pace in his last start in the Gotham Stakes last time out so that race proved he can sit in front or sit off the pace. He's going to have to take back in the Derby if he wants to win it. 

8. Take Charge Indy-He was lone speed in the Florida Derby beating #2 in that race. He briefly lost the lead in that race but fought back and won. Has a liking to CD but since there's always speed in the Derby I dont know if he'll be lone speed on Derby day since there's been very few horses who've been lone speed in the Derby in the past.

9. Dullahan: Won the Blue Grass beating and catching #7 coming for home in that race. He had a liking to the Keeneland ground with his win as let's see how his form can take to Louisville come Derby time. Maybe he will like it and a perfect way to win your prep race for the Derby as well. 

10. Daddy Nose Best-Has so far been the winner of the average Derby prep races leading up to the Derby. With his wins in the El Camino Real Derby and the Sunland Derby in the most recent starts. Let's see if he can strut his stuff come Derby time off those wins since he appears to probably be the dark horse maybe in the Derby.

What do you think of this new Derby list?

[Srotagtbs]

I've already heard Bodemeister to Curlin comparisions. Not sure how I feel about 'em.

[Johnnyrotten]

I've already heard Bodemeister to Curlin comparisions. Not sure how I feel about 'em.

That's a decent comparison. Will Bode have the same type of career Curlin had ? That would be tuff to do. That said even the mighty Curlin didn't really run his race in the Derby . I still like Dullahan, Daddy Nose Best, Gemologist, Union Rags more than Bodemeister.